What Nasrallah's death could mean for Yemen's Houthis

When Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, delivered televised speeches over the past year during Israel’s war on Gaza, Yemenis would watch him transfixed.

Listening closely to every word he said, many believed he would deal painful blows to the Israeli army. On Saturday, however, the veteran leader of Hezbollah was pronounced dead, killed in a huge Israeli airstrike on Beirut. For his supporters in Yemen, it was a disheartening shock.

Hezbollah, a political party and militant group established in 1982, has been a crucial ally of Yemen’s Houthi group. Both have almost identical dogma and military agendas and are part of an Iranian-led political and military coalition in the Middle East, the so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’.

The Houthi response to Israel’s assassination was swift, both in words and actions. "The martyrdom of Hassan Nasrallah will increase the flame of sacrifice, the heat of enthusiasm, the strength of resolve,” the group’s Supreme Political Council said. It also vowed to achieve "victory and the demise of the Israeli enemy".

A military response followed shortly afterwards, as the group said it fired a hypersonic ‘Palestine-2’ ballistic missile at Tel Aviv on Saturday, reportedly to target Ben Gurion airport as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived back from New York.

The attack caused no destruction and didn’t claim any lives, with Israel’s army saying it was intercepted outside the country’s borders.

The Houthis raise their profile

When Israel’s war on Gaza began in October 2023, the Houthis started a campaign targeting shipping in the Red Sea corridor in a bid to pressure Israel and the West.

This later escalated to missile and drone strikes on Israel itself. In June, the group revealed a new hypersonic missile in its arsenal, and a month later fired it at the southern port of Eilat, setting off air sirens.

That same month, in its most impactful attack to date, an Iranian-made drone launched by the Houthis killed one person and injured 10 in Tel Aviv in July.

While US and Western airstrikes have been targeting the Houthis since December, under Operation Prosperity Guardian, Israel has also struck the country twice.

On 20 July, Israeli airstrikes hit Hodeidah port, killing six people and wounding 87 others. The strikes left colossal destruction at the targeted location, with material losses estimated at more than $20 million.

On Sunday, Israeli raids also hit two power plants and a port in Hodeidah, killing four and wounding 40 people. Despite the magnitude of damage caused by Israel’s strikes, the Houthi group remains adamant.

“No matter how great the sacrifices, this does not mean withdrawal and fragility, but rather more patience, steadfastness, work and moving towards escalation and improving performance,”  Houthi chief Abdulmalik Al-Houthi said in a speech on Saturday mourning Nasrallah.

This attitude, and the likelihood of further Houthi drone and missile attacks, could potentially trigger a larger Israeli response, deepening the military chaos and humanitarian tragedy of Yemen

Iran's ballistic strike on Israel

Since the Gaza war began, Iran has sought to avoid an all-out war with Israel, with different factions in its regional axis launching attacks of varying intensity.

Following a series of escalatory measures by Israel, however, most notably its assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Hanieyh in Tehran, the pager attacks and airstrikes on Hezbollah, and then the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, Iran felt compelled to respond.

On Tuesday, it launched 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, including hypersonic weapons, forcing the majority of Israeli citizens into air shelters. Netanyahu has vowed to make Iran “pay”, denoting that a wider regional conflict seems inescapable.

Some observers believe a widening conflict could serve to further boost the Houthis, who have since the Gaza war played an outsized role in the region.

“Over the past year, the Houthis have taken centre stage,” Ahmed Nagi, a senior Yemen analyst at the Crisis Group, told the Associated Press.

On Wednesday, the Houthis said they fired cruise missiles “deep inside” Israel, although there was no confirmation from Israeli authorities.

The Houthi leadership: A possible Israeli target?

With the Houthis already emboldened and continuing to launch attacks on Israel, analysts say that Tel Aviv would be willing to target the group’s leadership, especially after the brazen, and brutal, nature of its assassination of Hassan Nasrallah.

The Houthis are now “under the Israeli microscope”, according to Yemeni political analyst Ahmed Hazza.

“If Israel could locate Nasrallah despite his security and military precautions, what about the Houthi leader? I think Israel can hit the Houthi movement chief and the rest of his aides anytime,” he told The New Arab.

The Houthis and Hezbollah have exchanged substantial military and political expertise in recent years, with Nasrallah’s death and the Israeli targeting of Hezbollah’s senior command structure to unquestionably affect the Yemeni group, Hazza said.

“The swift collapse of Hezbollah has panicked the Houthi group, whose fall may be faster than Hezbollah,” Khaleel Al-Omary, a Yemeni political analyst, told TNA.

Civilian concerns in Yemen

With the Houthis increasingly seeking to play a larger regional role, there are mounting fears among Yemeni civilians, especially over potential future Israeli airstrikes on public facilities such as ports and power plants.

Faisal Mohammed, a 35-year-old resident of Sanaa, told The New Arab that he believes that Israel will not show any mercy if it launches a war on Yemen.

“The Israelis have so far have hit port facilities and power plants in Hodeidah two times. They focus on destroying ports to deprive us of receiving oil and food commodities. They intend to starve us. This is an act of evil,” he said.

The Israeli assassination of Nasrallah will have serious ramifications for Yemen, Mohammed says, as the Houthis will continue to retaliate against Israel.

“And Israel is capable of responding. This means we [civilians] are going to experience a new chapter of suffering."

The writer is a Yemeni journalist, reporting from Yemen, whose identity we are protecting for their security.