Is the US-Turkey dispute over Russian S-400s about to be resolved?

Recent reports suggest that the United States and Turkey are discussing a potential proposal to resolve the long-running dispute over the latter’s 2019 acquisition of advanced, strategic S-400 Triumf air defence missile systems from Russia.

Resolving this disagreement could reopen membership for Turkey in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program and allow Ankara to buy those fifth-generation stealth aircraft.

In a 22 September report, Greece’s Kathimerini newspaper claimed the US made a detailed proposal to Turkey on the matter over the summer. Under that proposal, Turkey could keep the S-400 systems on its soil but under American control and supervision in the US section of Turkey’s sprawling south-eastern Incirlik Airbase.

In return, Washington would readmit Turkey into the F-35 program and lift sanctions it slapped on Turkey’s defence industry in 2020 under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, CAATSA.

Notably, the purported offer follows a similar proposal allegedly made by Turkey during the same period. According to an August report in Turkey’s Cumhuriyet daily, Ankara suggested it could “put them (the S-400s) in boxes, you (the US) inspect” in return for regaining access to F-35s.

Turkey officially denied the August report, claiming it hadn’t changed its stance on the S-400. A Turkish official also denied the recent Kathimerini report, telling reporters, “As of now, there has been no shift in either country’s stance regarding the S-400 and F-35 issues”.

However, Turkish media outlets corroborated the latter Greek report, claiming Ankara has rejected the offer but noting the US has shown flexibility on its conditions. It’s worth recalling that the US stance had been for Turkey to remove the S-400s from Turkey entirely before it would consider readmitting Ankara into the F-35 program.

Analysts are not ruling out the possibility of a deal roughly along the lines of the ones described in these reports.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see some kind of compromise along these lines in which the S-400 is put in the storage or is in some way or another mothballed so that it’s not being utilised in a way that might gather information on sensitive US weapon systems,” Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, told The New Arab.

“I think that’s been the goal of the United States from the very get-go once the system was delivered,” Bohl said.

Since Turkey ordered the S-400 in 2017, the US repeatedly warned that the Russian system could enable Moscow to obtain sensitive and potentially compromising intel on the F-35’s stealth capabilities. Ankara had insisted the systems would not operate together, stressing the S-400 would serve as a standalone system not integrated into Turkey’s broader air defence.

However, it did not convince Washington, which immediately suspended its fellow NATO member from the F-35 program shortly after Russia delivered the first S-400s in July 2019.

Suleyman Ozeren, a lecturer at the American University and senior fellow at the Orion Policy Institute, thinks the latest reported proposal “seems credible” since it cites several US officials and “provides specific details” about the deal’s outline.

“So far, there haven’t been any contradicting statements from the US side, adding to its plausibility,” Ozeren told TNA.

Turkey may also be keener to reach a compromise over the S-400 given the geopolitical shifts that have happened in the five years since it acquired them, most notably Russia’s fateful full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“The S-400 was initially supposed to be part of a way for Turkey to diversify its air defences away from the West to give it greater operational freedom,” Bohl said. “But with the Russians going full tilt on the war in Ukraine, there’s no guarantee that such diversification with the Russians has a reliable supply chain or won’t eventually run afoul of much more serious Western sanctions.

“So, there’s a very strong limit to how much more Turkey can gain out of this system and this trend of diversifying towards the Russians.”

The RANE analyst also argued that the “context of the delivery” has also substantially shifted in these past five years.

“Back then, it was a theoretical challenge to the United States in which the Russians might inadvertently gain intelligence on advanced US hardware,” he said. “Now, with the war in Ukraine, this danger is much more pronounced and, I think, more likely to incur more serious sanctions on Turkey’s defence sector,” Bohl added.

“For Turkey, the upsides of holding on to the S-400 in an operational sense are diminishing further and further.”

The Orion Policy Institute’s Ozeren also highlighted that the US proposal recently reported by Kathimerini differs from the alleged Turkish proposal reported by Cumhuriyet. The former entails Turkey transferring the systems to US control in Incirlik, while the latter merely discussed allowing US inspections.

The Turkish analyst believes that Washington and Ankara both have “strong incentives” to resolve the lingering dispute, albeit for different reasons.

“Turkey’s urgency stems from its pressing need to modernise its air force, and after years of searching for alternatives, it has yet to secure a viable solution,” Ozeren said. “For the US, Turkey remains a vital NATO ally, especially in scenarios where relations with Russia might deteriorate further or a regional conflict in the Middle East becomes a reality.”

While the US is seemingly calculating that Turkey would align with the West under such circumstances, Turkey has given it reason to doubt such assumptions by pursuing closer ties with Russia and China. Ankara also formally requested to join the intergovernmental BRICS organisation.

Turkey has consistently denied it will change its stance over the S-400. In recent years, it has also affirmed it no longer needs F-35s since it is developing an indigenous stealth fighter, the TF Kaan. Until its 2019 suspension, Turkey was expected to buy 100 F-35As to upgrade its air force.

Ankara recently secured a multi-billion-dollar arms deal it first requested in October 2021 to acquire 40 advanced Block 70 F-16 and modernisation kits for its existing fleet, the backbone of its air force.

“I do think Turkey would welcome being returned to the F-35, but they are also, of course, working on their own projects like the Kaan, which is supposed to be their own second-tier fifth-generation fighter that would free them from over-reliance on the West,” RANE’s Bohl said. “But certainly, being returned to the F-35 would be a boost for Turkey’s defence sector and a political win for its government.”

Reflecting on the whole Turkish S-400 episode, Bohl believes the US “reacted relatively proportionally” by keeping the contentious procurement in “a very specific policy box.” By doing so, Washington avoided “overextending itself” diplomatically or economically to punish Turkey.

“Turkey has received the message that there are dangers in diversifying away from Western partners towards their direct adversaries, and we haven’t seen substantial changes in Turkey’s defence relationships with Russia and China since then,” he said.

“So, in that sense, I think Washington was able to achieve its goals.”

Ozeren believes the US proposal, if proven true, “signals a willingness” on the part of the Biden administration, now in its final months, to resolve the matter. On the other hand, Ankara could find itself in a “difficult position” with Russia if it goes through with this alleged proposal.

“Granting full US control of the S-400s could indicate a shift in Turkey’s stance on its relationship with Russia, which might be another strategic goal the US is pursuing with this deal,” he said.

“Ankara seems highly interested in acquiring the F-35s. Turkey has invested substantial time, money, and resources into the program, which could significantly enhance its defence capabilities both regionally and within NATO,” he added.

“President Erdogan’s repeated references to Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program and the impact of CAATSA sanctions indicate that Ankara is eager to resolve this crisis and reintegrate into the program.”

Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist based in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, who writes about Middle East affairs.

Follow him on Twitter: @pauliddon