After Hassan Nasrallah's assassination, what next for Hezbollah?

Hezbollah suffered a severe blow on Saturday when its secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, was assassinated in Beirut. The attack was the latest in Israel’s campaign to weaken the Shia movement’s rank and file.

At least seven leaders of Hezbollah’s command-and-control structure, including Fuad Shukr, Ibrahim Aqil, Ibrahim Kobeissi, Mohammad Surour, and Hassan Nasrallah, have been killed amidst ongoing hostilities, many in the past few weeks alone.

The Israeli military has claimed that Hezbollah's operational infrastructure has been "almost completely dismantled" following these targeted assassinations.

Tel Aviv has further intensified its bombardments of Beirut’s southern suburbs, southern Lebanon, and the Bekaa Valley, disrupting Hezbollah's efforts to regroup at a time when the group is facing internal pressure to appoint a new leader and respond to the escalating incursions.

Analysts believe that Israel may be “on the verge of launching a broader offensive” after the country sealed off its northern border communities and expanded its operations on Monday to include ground raids in southern Lebanon.

To survive, Hezbollah needs to rebuild

Hezbollah's deputy secretary-general, Naim Qassem, announced on Monday that the group would continue its military operations, undeterred by the Israeli airstrikes, which since September alone have killed more than 1,000 people in Lebanon.

Despite the severity of the shock, the group still retains many of its most valuable assets, including precision-guided and long-range missiles capable of inflicting substantial damage on Israel's military and civilian infrastructure.

However, Lebanese political analyst Tawfiq Shouman believes that the group is now in dire need of reorganisation.

"The loss of multiple key leaders is a severe hit," he told The New Arab. “But to recover, the group must focus on two main objectives.”

The first objective would be to appoint a new secretary-general to succeed Nasrallah, a move that could "signal the party's resilience despite the mounting challenges," according to Shouman. The new leadership, however, must "navigate this period with extreme caution," as a single misstep could spell disaster for Hezbollah.

“The second goal would be to even the score with Israel through a strong military response,” he added. “This could range from a large-scale retaliatory strike to smaller, more sporadic attacks, such as the ones being carried out right now.”

Shouman believes that Hezbollah's retaliation could also include "assassination attempts on Israeli leaders,” following reports in August of the arrest of a Jewish Israeli citizen, whom authorities claim was involved in an Iranian-backed plot targeting high-profile figures, including the country’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“These two objectives may be Hezbollah's only way of absorbing the shock and cementing its geopolitical position once more,” he said.

Military expert Baha’ al-Halal agrees with Shouman, affirming that “the future hinges primarily on Hezbollah’s response to the recent events,” and that the current leadership should focus on rebuilding its capacities and planning for an appropriate response.

He, however, disagrees with the notion that achieving “big strategic goals,” such as assassinating key Israeli figures, would currently be feasible, as it requires extensive preparation, something the party currently lacks the resources for.

The blows are painful, but not fatal

Before Nasrallah’s killing, Hezbollah had escalated its attacks on northern Israel, reaching as far as Tel Aviv. Israel even intercepted one ballistic missile that the group claimed was aimed at Mossad’s headquarters.

While Saturday’s assassination is bound to impact morale, military expert Baha’ al-Halal believes that Hezbollah’s ongoing strikes signify that the militant group has already started to absorb the blows.

“It’s a setback - that’s undeniable - but it isn’t fatal. The group is still capable of recovery,” he told The New Arab, pointing out times when the party weathered past crises, including leadership transitions after the assassination of former secretary-general Abbas al-Musawi in the 1990s.

“Nasrallah had successfully transformed Hezbollah into a well-structured institution, resilient to losses in both leadership and weaponry,” al-Halal said. “His death is unlikely to incapacitate the party.”

According to al-Halal, the group’s operational readiness is intact, with “contingency plans prepared to counter any Israeli offensive,” whether “a minor incursion or a full-scale invasion”.

"Nasrallah had successfully transformed Hezbollah into a well-structured institution, resilient to losses in both leadership and weaponry. His death is unlikely to incapacitate the party"

Limited options

André Abu Mishar, a military analyst and retired brigadier general, told The New Arab that both countries had only two options in this latest bout of hostilities.

"In one possible scenario, Israel might attempt to avoid an outright invasion by conducting limited incursions targeting Hezbollah installations, temporarily occupying the security belt to disarm the group, or launching a broader campaign to seize the eastern mountain range and block weapon smuggling across the Syrian border," he said.

This scenario remains “contingent on on-ground military developments, particularly those carried out by Hezbollah,” he said.

"The other option is an all-out war with an unpredictable trajectory, which international diplomatic intervention might fail to contain," Abu Mishar said. "So far, diplomatic efforts have yielded no favourable results, as they are based on unacceptable terms of surrender in both Gaza and Lebanon."

He also referenced Monday’s meeting between Nabih Berri, the head of parliament, and army leadership, highlighting that stakeholders are urging Hezbollah to consider less volatile solutions.

“But Hezbollah may reject such proposals if there are no clear gains that can justify the party’s sacrifices,” he said.

Will Tehran come to its ally's aid?

“Iran’s support of Hezbollah has been disappointing,” Abu Mishar said. “Many had expected a swift and decisive response following Israel’s escalation, but a combination of strategic miscalculations and surprise Israeli tactics prevented Hezbollah from deploying heavier weaponry before the major escalation began.”

He also states that in international politics, "there are no permanent enemies, only permanent interests," noting that while Iran benefits from supporting Hezbollah and Hamas to bolster its regional influence, “its national interests ultimately take precedence.

“Recent signals from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to the United States suggest a willingness to engage diplomatically on the nuclear issue, which could be part of an effort to contain Israel and reduce the overall threats in the region,” he said.

On the other hand, Shouman maintained that Iranian support, both financial and military, remains "strong and ongoing".

“Talks of Iran abandoning Hezbollah are simply unrealistic,” he told The New Arab. “While Tehran has not specified a timeline, a response seems inevitable.”

Shouman also adds that Yemen and Iraq’s involvement in the escalation could “widen the scope of the conflict,” especially after Yemen's recent strikes on several Israeli cities. Israeli officials, he explained, are aware that “Iran will retaliate, but the nature of that response remains to be seen”.

Al-Halal also rejects the notion that Iran has “sold out” or abandoned Hezbollah, asserting that the group remained a central component of Iran’s regional strategy.

“Losing a figure like Nasrallah is a strategic blow to Iran,” he said. “But Tehran is working on managing the conflict in a way that sustains Hezbollah’s resistance without triggering a full-scale war.”

Regarding Iran’s potential retaliation, al-Halal explained that while a response is likely, it will depend on “broader geopolitical circumstances,” despite statements from current Iranian officials indicating that recent events will not go unanswered.

“Tehran calculates its military and political moves with great care, ensuring that any response aligns with its long-term strategic interests,” he explained.

This article is published in collaboration with Egab.