How Trump's return paves the way for Israel's annexation of the West Bank

Few were more elated about Donald Trump’s re-election than Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the far-right politicians who sustain his fragile coalition government.

Among Palestinians and the Israeli left, however, concerns are mounting that Trump may greenlight the annexation of the West Bank and even the rebuilding of illegal Israeli settlements in the pulverised Gaza Strip.

Buoyed by Trump’s return, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared last week that 2025 would be "the year of [Israeli] sovereignty in Judea and Samaria” while National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir said "this is the time for sovereignty” in the West Bank.

These are grave statements from two far-right figures who are considered to be driving Netanyahu’s Gaza policy and have called for ethnically cleansing Palestinians from their homes in the Gaza Strip and building Jewish settlements in their place.

Within Israel, the push for re-establishing settlements in Gaza is gaining momentum. In October 2024, around 500 Jewish settlers camped near the Gaza border, demanding the full occupation of the enclave and the expulsion of its Palestinian residents.

This follows growing domestic pressure in Israel to restore settlements in Gaza, which were evacuated in 2005 under then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's unilateral Gaza Disengagement Plan.

A legacy of growing US support for Israel

In the past year, Israel has not only intensified its bombardment of Gaza but has also escalated its raids in the West Bank. Attacks by settlers and Israeli military forces on refugee camps, Palestinian civilians, and armed groups have surged.

In the wake of Trump’s electoral victory on 5 November, home demolitions in East Jerusalem and the destruction of a Bedouin village in the southern Negev/Naqab desert to make way for an Orthodox Jewish community, under orders from Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, highlight the expanding forced displacement of Palestinians.

The announcement of potential annexation further compounds the misery of Palestinians navigating the rubble in Gaza or enduring daily repression in the West Bank. For Palestinians, a trend of US acquiescence towards Israel, which has steadily increased over the past decades, suggests their lives will only worsen.

“Every American administration is more fanatically pro-Israel than the previous one. Donald Trump is unlikely to be an exception to the rule. In his first term as President, Trump recognised Israel's sovereignty over East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights and did everything to please the far-right in Israel,” Avi Shlaim, an Israeli-British historian, one of the 'New Israeli Historians,' and Emeritus Professor of International Relations at the University of Oxford, told The New Arab.

Hopes that President Joe Biden might deliver less impunity for Netanyahu’s government were dashed as he upheld Trump-era policies while offering unbridled material and diplomatic support for Israel’s assault on Gaza.

At best, the Biden administration employed a "carrot and stick" strategy - guaranteeing military support while urging improvements in Gaza’s humanitarian situation. Yet, Biden also oversaw settlement expansion and violent Israeli military attacks in the West Bank, even before Hamas’ attack on 7 October and Israel’s subsequent war.

Although Trump’s departure in 2020 paused some of the more extreme initiatives, such as the so-called ‘Deal of the Century’ and fears he may have greenlighted Netanyahu’s ambitions to annex the West Bank that year, his return could reignite these efforts.

Under Trump’s watch, far-right Israeli politicians may be emboldened to push for formal annexation, a goal long desired by Netanyahu and his allies.

Far-right celebrations and Trump's team

Based on his cabinet picks so far, Trump’s administration appears poised to closely align with the Israeli right, offering unwavering support to the Israeli government.

Mike Huckabee, nominated as the US ambassador to Israel, has long supported settlement expansion and a one-state solution, suggesting that annexation could "of course" be feasible under the new administration. Pete Hegseth, nominated for Secretary of Defence, has advocated for building a third Jewish temple on Al Aqsa Mosque and has publicly endorsed Israel's wars in Gaza and Lebanon.

Marco Rubio, nominated for Secretary of State, also opposes a two-state solution and has rejected calls for a ceasefire in Gaza, while Elise Stefanik, proposed as ambassador to the United Nations, dismissed the UN as a “cesspool of antisemitism” for condemning the killings of Palestinian in Gaza.

“Trump is not an ideologue like Biden, but those around him are, vis-a-vis Israel,” Nour Odeh, a Palestinian political analyst, told The New Arab.

She added that, unlike Biden, who masked his bias with polite language and references to international law, the Trump administration will skip any sugar-coating of its support for Israel but will still try to market its agenda as one for 'peace’.

“This Orwellian rhetoric must not deflect from the fact that those in power simply do not see the Palestinian people, which in some way, is even more depraved than the racism and apathy of the Biden team,” she added.

The long shadow of Oslo

Biden, a self-declared Zionist who gave Israel $17.9 billion in military aid in the past year, will also be remembered by voters in the US and worldwide for unequivocally supporting Israel’s actions in the West Bank, Gaza and beyond in the Middle East.

Not only did he fail to reverse the legacy of Trump’s first term, but he also continued a long-standing pattern among American presidents since 1993 of allowing settlement expansion, despite its violation of international law and the spirit of the Oslo Accords signed that year by Bill Clinton, Yasser Arafat, and Yitzhak Rabin.

Biden also did little to address the concerns raised by Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, B’Tselem, former members of South Africa’s ANC and even a former head of Mossad in describing the system in the West Bank as apartheid.

Muhannad Ayyash, a policy analyst at Al-Shabaka and Professor of Sociology at Mount Royal University, also suggests that any differences between Trump and Biden are overexaggerated and that life won’t drastically change for Palestinians under occupation.

“The Biden administration did nothing to stop settlement expansion. While Biden did sanction some individual settlers this year, he did not do anything about the Israeli state, which is responsible for enabling settlements to continue, not the settlers themselves” he told The New Arab.

“It doesn’t matter who’s in power in the US, or even in Israel, the settlements are continuing.

“There are still going to be annexations, there are still going to be settlement expansions, the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza will continue, which Biden fully supported,” Dr Ayyash added.  

“Life for Palestinians on the ground will continue to grow more difficult, Trump is not causing their suffering but merely contributing to it, as has every other administration.”

Such concerns reflect the sentiment among many Palestinians that annexation might not significantly alter their circumstances, as much of the West Bank has already been confiscated or is under the ongoing threat of confiscation.

A bleak outlook

Trump’s return to power may signal an even deeper alignment with Israel’s far-right, possibly paving the way for annexation of the West Bank. In his first term, there were fears that Trump might tolerate annexation, which Netanyahu delayed due to international pressure.

This prospect will likely resurface, as Netanyahu may initially target annexations in Area C, which houses the largest settler population. However, there are fears that he may not stop there.

“In his second term, Trump is likely to go even further and support the Israeli far-right agenda of annexing the entire West Bank. His election is likely to spell disaster for the Palestinians and for the much-vaunted rule-based international order,” warned Avi Shlaim.

Ultimately, Trump may deliver on promises to bolster American support for the Israeli right wing - through annexation or increased settlement expansion - the differences between him and Biden are likely to be cosmetic.

For instance, Trump has already pledged to “lift” restrictions and delays on military aid to Israel, positioning himself as a potential anti-Biden figure despite Biden's strong support for Israel.

For Palestinians, however, the message remains clear: life in both the West Bank and Gaza will only grow harder, regardless of who resides in the White House.

Jonathan Fenton-Harvey is a journalist and researcher who focuses on conflict, geopolitics, and humanitarian issues in the Middle East and North Africa.

Follow him on Twitter: @jfentonharvey