What Trump's 'Israel first' cabinet means for the Middle East

US President-elect Donald J. Trump announced his cabinet nominees last week ahead of the 20 January inauguration following his November election victory.

Across roles like secretary of state, Middle East envoy, secretary of defence, US ambassador to Israel, and United Nations ambassador, Trump signalled a resolutely pro-Israel position.

Marco Rubio, nominated for secretary of state, has long been a staunch Israel supporter, even attacking Trump in 2016 as ‘anti-Israeli’ for his stance on peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians.

In the past year, Rubio has criticised the Biden administration for insufficient support of Israel's actions in Gaza and Lebanon, opposed a ceasefire, and defended Israel's right to respond disproportionately to Iranian attacks.

Trump has also tapped Steven Witkoff, a real estate investor and major campaign donor, as his Middle East Envoy. Despite lacking diplomatic experience, Witkoff's close relationship with Trump ensures his trust, direct access, and strong support for Israel, reflecting Trump's preference for loyalty over diplomatic credentials.

Trump's appointments also include Mike Huckabee as US Ambassador to Israel and Elise Stefanik as US Ambassador to the United Nations, who both further reflect the new administration's strong pro-Israel support.

Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas, has long advocated for Israeli settlements in the West Bank and opposes a two-state solution, bringing a hardline pro-Israel stance to his diplomatic role.

Republican Congresswoman Stefanik has also been outspoken in her support for Israel, particularly following Hamas's 7 October attack, and called to defund UN agency UNRWA.

Another key Trump appointment to watch is Fox News host Pete Hegseth as Defence Secretary. As a pro-Israel advocate and Iran hawk, Hegseth would lead the Pentagon amid growing conflicts on multiple fronts, including ongoing Israeli wars in the Middle East.

Altogether, Trump's picks signal a united, unwavering commitment to Israel in both diplomacy and international forums.

But the Middle East that Trump left behind, marked by his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognise the occupied Golan Heights as Israeli territory, and solidify the Abraham Accords, has drastically changed, as Israel's wars against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon have isolated the US ally, with much of the international community and public opinion accusing it of war crimes and genocide.

If Israel has had significant leeway to wage wars in Gaza and Lebanon - killing over 43,000 and 3,000, respectively, despite the President Joe Biden administration's attempts to limit civilian casualties and secure humanitarian aid - this room for manoeuvre will likely continue or even widen under the Trump administration.

"Every single red line was crossed with no consequences. In reality, nothing has fundamentally changed," Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King's College London and CEO of MENA Analytica, told The New Arab, as both the Biden and Trump administrations have "unequivocally stood with Israel and will continue to do so".

The list of statements from Trump's Middle East picks further reflects an avowedly pro-Israel policy moving forward. Rubio, for example, has rejected calls for a ceasefire in Gaza and said he wants Israel to "destroy every element of Hamas".

In 2008, Huckabee, meanwhile, said that "there's really no such thing as a Palestinian" and he refuses to use the term West Bank, instead calling it by the Jewish biblical name ‘Judea and Samaria’. These pro-Israel cabinet picks have been publicly cheered by far-right members of Israel’s government, including hardline extremist Itamar Ben-Gvir.

"This administration will be much more supportive of Israel than the Biden administration and will likely impose no constraints on Israeli actions in Gaza, the West Bank, or Lebanon," Steven Heydemann, Professor in Middle East Studies at Smith College in Northampton, Massachusetts, told The New Arab.

Even before being re-elected, Trump himself repeatedly urged Israel to "finish the job" and destroy Hamas, suggesting Israel should target Iran's nuclear facilities in retaliation for its October attacks, a stance at odds with the Biden administration's approach.

However, Trump has also vowed to stop the wars in the region, although he hasn't yet outlined how.

"It seems that Trump wants Netanyahu to wrap up the wars, and Netanyahu may do this in such a way that Trump can take credit for the wars' ending," Michael Wahid Hanna, US Program Director at International Crisis Group, told TNA.

In this regard, The Washington Post reported that a close aide to Netanyahu told Trump and former senior advisor Jared Kushner that Israel is pushing for a ceasefire deal in Lebanon as a 'gift' to Trump.

However, Hanna also explained that "there's still some uncertainty about how the Israelis can wrap up this conflict, whether they can, and what Trump would do if they are not able to".

Given this uncertainty, the pro-Israel positions of Trump's appointees may face constraints, as they cannot limit their efforts to supporting Israel but must also consider other Middle Eastern actors with whom Trump wants to deal with, such as Gulf countries.

In fact, Trump may risk that his administration's unconditional support for Israel could strain relations with other regional actors, who wouldn't accept such a pro-Israeli posture in handling regional crises.

For example, a summit of Arab and Muslim leaders in Riyadh last week, including Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, demanded that Israel halt its military actions in Gaza and Lebanon, called for global recognition of Palestinian statehood, and urged Israel not to attack Iran.

In this context, Krieg explained that Trump's Middle East picks will face a reality check, as US policy will be shaped not only by pro-Israel circles but also by pro-Gulf networks funded by Gulf money, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar, with US foreign policy shaped by the "highest bidder".

"The challenge is balancing hardline pro-Israel policies with the need to rely on the Gulf for cooperation against Iran and terrorism while avoiding getting dragged into conflicts", he said. "The Gulf has shifted away from its previous hawkish stance and doesn't fully support maximum pressure on Iran or cooperation with Israel."

Heydemann suggests that Trump's choice to prioritise loyalty over experience in his picks - most of whom lack relevant expertise, except for Rubio - reflects "the chaotic approach the Trump administration will take in managing Middle East relations, with Trump's strategy being deeply transactional".

Meanwhile, Trump's other picks are already working for his agenda in the Middle East.

The New York Times reported that businessman Elon Musk, appointed to head the Department of Government Efficiency, met last week with two Iranian officials to discuss defusing tensions between Iran and the US.

Moreover, a number of publications also suggest that Massad Boulos, the Lebanese-American billionaire and father-in-law of Trump's daughter Tiffany, who helped secure Arab votes for Trump, might play a role in the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire talks.

But by prioritising loyalty and transactional relationships over expertise in shaping US foreign policy in the region, Trump risks deepening US involvement in Israel's war rather than halting it, according to experts.

"This conflict could draw in the US, whether Trump wants it or not, as Israeli attacks against Iran have done before. Even if Israel halts its operations, it will continue occupying Gaza, making it unlikely for Trump to avoid being entangled," Hanna said.

This is a scenario Trump wants to avoid, along with straining relations with Gulf countries.

As Krieg suggests, the pro-Israel stance of his appointees may push Trump to intervene if they overreach. To achieve a ‘Deal of the Century 2.0’ with Saudi-Israel normalisation, he will need to rein in his team, as seen in his first term when Trump fired those he believed no longer aligned with his agenda.

However, Heydemann thinks that Trump's second-term Middle East policy may freeze progress on the Abraham Accords and retreat from securing a Saudi defence treaty, focusing instead on transactional, bilateral deals.

With Saudi Arabia improving ties with Iran and US influence waning due to stronger Gulf ties with Russia and China, Trump may struggle to reshape the region.

"A broader US disengagement from the Middle East is possible, though not a total withdrawal. Managing these relations based on Trump's instincts could put the US in a dangerous position," he said.

Dario Sabaghi is a freelance journalist interested in human rights

Follow him on Twitter: @DarioSabaghi