What Modi's third term means for India's Muslims

Narendra Modi has been sworn in as India's prime minister for a third consecutive term following a significant electoral outcome that gives his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a reduced majority to govern the country.

Last week, Modi received backing from his National Democratic Alliance (NDA) - a coalition of close to 40 political parties - after meeting with its members.

Even as the BJP fell well short of the 272 seats required to form the next government on its own, Modi received the support of smaller parties (within the NDA) to secure a parliamentary majority.

Experts say his third term as prime minister raises significant concerns for the country's Muslims, who have faced increased marginalisation and hostility since he came to power in 2014.

“Continuing in the same direction, what has happened since 2014, Muslims are set to face greater alienation, greater loss of security, [and] greater apprehension about their future,” Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, a veteran journalist and expert on right-wing Hindu politics, told The New Arab.

Modi's decade in power has been marked by a significant increase in marginalisation and discriminatory legislation targeting religious minorities, particularly Muslims.

Instances of communal violence have intensified during his tenure with Muslim communities often bearing the brunt of Hindu nationalist aggression, subjected to brutal beatings and even lynching by Hindu mobs on suspicion of cow slaughter or beef consumption.

These incidents, commonly referred to as "cow vigilantism," involve mobs attacking individuals suspected of harming cows, considered sacred by Hindus. Modi’s government has been accused of providing patronage to the mobs for their alignment with the political agenda of the BJP.

"Modi's decade in power has been marked by a significant increase in marginalisation and discriminatory legislation targeting religious minorities, particularly Muslims"

Outcasts in Modi's India

“Since the BJP has come to power, minorities in general, and Muslims in particular, have been on the receiving end. They were never like very prosperous communities, but their marginalisation has only further deepened,” says Dr Mohammad Reyaz, an academic and an expert on minority issues based in India’s West Bengal. “Muslims have literally been outcasted,” he added.

In 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi also revoked the special autonomy status of Jammu and Kashmir, India's lone Muslim-majority state, bringing it firmly under the direct control of the central government in New Delhi.

Concurrently, his administration introduced a contentious citizenship law that notably excludes Muslim migrants, igniting widespread protests and violent clashes across the nation that led to the death of dozens, mostly Muslims.

The BJP’s regional governments, meanwhile, have bulldozed properties owned by Muslims, citing reasons such as illegal occupation of government land or alleged involvement in riots.

There has also been a wave of historical revisionism in Indian textbooks aimed at diminishing the significance of the country's Mughal era. The BJP has even changed the names of cities and streets in an attempt to erase traces of former Islamic rule.

Experts fear that these trends could continue, or even intensify, during Modi’s third term, leading to the further marginalisation of India’s 200 million Muslims.

“They [BJP] want to make Muslims invisible and unwanted. The entire election of 2024 was fought on an anti-Muslim narrative. What will happen and what has already happened is that Muslims now feel that their life, their existence, is very uncertain in India,” Apoorvanand, a prominent political commentator and professor at the University of Delhi, told The New Arab.

Further marginalisation

Critics argue that Modi’s actions in the last decade form part of a broader agenda to reshape India's secular foundation while undermining the constitutional rights of Muslims and rendering them second-class citizens.

“This (Modi) government has already, in so many ways, stooped so low, like demolishing people's homes, bringing out discriminatory laws, banning the hijab, banning the Azan [Muslim call to prayer], and not letting Muslims offer namaz in peace. The list goes on, but I think the community will just try its best [to keep] fighting,” Afreen Fatima, a prominent student activist and vocal critic of the Indian government, told The New Arab.

Fatima has herself been a victim of the government's targeted action against Muslims. In June 2022, her father Javed Mohammad, a Muslim activist himself, was accused of inciting violence and participating in unlawful assemblies by the BJP government, charges that Fatima and his family vehemently deny.

"The BJP wants to make Muslims invisible and unwanted. The entire election of 2024 was fought on an anti-Muslim narrative [...] Muslims now feel that their life, their existence, is very uncertain in India"

The government then demolished their home in Uttar Pradesh, claiming it was an illegal structure. Such actions are viewed by many as acts of intimidation and retribution, designed by the BJP government to silence dissent by Muslim voices.

Fatima fears that such retributive measures will continue as Modi prepares to lead the country for another five-year term.

“We are merely surviving, fending for ourselves. The oppression will continue and as a Muslim woman, it is a very scary proposition for me to see the BJP government [coming to power] for the third time. Muslims are already pushed towards the very margins. We are already facing existential threats and another term for Modi means worse is to come,” Fatima added.

Vicious anti-Muslim rhetoric

The BJP has historically used anti-Muslim narratives as ammunition for electoral gains. In the build-up to the recent general elections, the party employed vile anti-Muslim rhetoric in a discernible attempt to consolidate the Hindu vote.

Earlier this April, following the conclusion of the first phase of India's polling, Modi delivered a hate speech while addressing a huge gathering in north India’s Rajasthan, in which he characterised Muslims as “infiltrators”, accusing them of having larger families and depleting resources meant for Hindus.

In similar inflammatory remarks, Modi’s close aide and Home Minister Amit Shah declared that, if elected, he would hang those involved in cow trading and slaughter, in a direct reference to Muslims.

The Muslim community in the country has also been grappling with mounting apprehension regarding the enactment of a Uniform Civil Code (UCC) in the country as advocated by the BJP.

The proposed code could lead to the erosion of personal laws that govern crucial aspects of Muslim social affairs, including marriage, divorce, inheritance, and family matters as per religious and cultural traditions.

“If implemented, it is evident now that a Hindu way of life would be imposed on all other communities. When the BJP utters the word UCC, it addresses both Muslims and Hindus and it tells Hindus that this is the route through which we will control the lives of Muslims and it tells Muslims that from now on you are going to be subject to our will,” said Professor Apoorvanand.

The academic believes that parts of the Hindu community have long believed that as the majority social group the country belongs to them.

“This idea has been promoted by the BJP and [its ideological fountainhead] the RSS and it has now remained in the subconscious of Hindu masses,” he said.

“The main feature of the public life of India in the last 10 years is the radicalisation of Hindus into violent and obscene mobs. That is what the BJP has been doing, and that is what many organisations affiliated with the BJP, or who are autonomous but are part of its ecosystem, are doing. They have been radicalising Hindus, and the radicalisation of Hindus is, now I think, also a major international threat.”

Silver lining?

Despite Modi coming to power for a third consecutive term, political analysts argue that his reduced majority signals a check on his majoritarian and anti-Muslim politics. The election results also showed significant support for the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), which is considered a collegium of secular parties.

In states like Uttar Pradesh, considered a bastion of the BJP, significant victories by INDIA candidates halted Modi’s absolute majority, and the increased presence of opposition parties in parliament is expected to serve as a check on Modi's majoritarian agenda. 

“I think this [fractured] mandate will provide some hope to people. The opposition has got stronger and the first thing I expect is that it will give some courage to the judiciary to act according to the Constitution,” said Professor Apoorvanand.

"Muslims have faced unprecedented violence and humiliation in the last decade. I believe because of the BJP's poor performance in this election, Muslim confidence in Indian politics may rise"

He believes this mandate will embolden and provide significant relief to those affected, including incarcerated individuals and human rights workers who have been targeted by the Modi government.

“It will signal to institutional authorities that they cannot operate as agents of the BJP without scrutiny,” Apoorvanand said.

“Muslims have faced unprecedented violence and humiliation in the last decade. I believe because of the BJP’s poor performance in this election, Muslim confidence in Indian politics may rise and also positively influence the political dynamics of secular parties which have long been struggling. These parties may gain greater courage and increase Muslim representation in the future.”

Hanan Zaffar is a journalist based in New Delhi and has written extensively on South Asian politics and minority issues

Follow him on Twitter: @HananZaffar

Jyoti Thakur is an Indian journalist and fellow at Earth Journalism Network and Village Square

Follow her on Twitter: @jyotiithakurr