Harris Vs. Trump: How real is the prospect of a new American Civil War?

The United States appears to have moved far from its self-proclaimed post-racial status, with deepening societal and political divides echoing some of the old Civil War battle lines that never really healed.

The current election campaign, pitting white nationalist Donald Trump against the biracial Kamala Harris, is exacerbating these divides.

But this dynamic reflects longstanding racial tensions that were intensified during Obama’s presidency, underscoring the persistent impact of race on American politics.

Just as Obama faced accusations of being "foreign" due to his upbringing in Hawaii and Indonesia, Kamala Harris is being described as  “ineligible” for being born to “foreign nationals”, with Trump recently questioning whether she is "Indian or Black."

Both Obama and Harris, as mixed-race Americans, have faced accusations of "passing" as Black to appeal to Black voters, regardless of the fairness or otherwise of these attacks.

Obama’s presidency exposed deep-seated racial tensions and fears among some aggrieved sections of white Americans about becoming a minority amidst a growing non-white majority, with falling birth rates and high immigration flows, legal and otherwise.

Similarly, the current election campaign is revealing deeper divisions in American society, highlighting anxieties not only about race but also about a range of social issues, including so-called family values, gun control, immigration, and foreign policy.

But Trump’s rapid focus on Harris’ race reflects the core appeal of his Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, which centres on defending symbols of whiteness and white nationalism.

Over 60% of Donald Trump voters believe in the “great replacement” conspiracy theory, which claims that immigrants and people of colour are replacing native-born white Americans.

An analysis of a 2019 YouGov survey of white respondents found that support for Donald Trump was strongly linked to racial resentment and white nationalism, reflecting a desire to maintain a predominantly white demographic and cultural identity in the U.S.

For this reason, some even argue that Donald Trump embodies a modern-day version of slavery-era Confederate ideals of white supremacy, reflecting ongoing divisions and racial tensions in the country.  

Modern-day civil war in America?

Looking at Trump’s campaign gives the impression that the American Civil War never truly ended, as its unresolved issues continue to shape contemporary politics.

Indeed, the current divisions in the US along racial, ideological, and political lines echo the tensions of the 1860s Civil War, which pitted the northern states against the southern states (the Confederacy) that attempted to secede in defence of Black enslavement. So much so that calls for secession and fears of civil war are more prominent in American society today than ever before.

While talk about the Civil War is hardly new in American politics, it seems to be taking root in American society. A 2022 poll by The Economist and YouGov found that 54 percent of self-described strong American Republicans think it is very or somewhat likely there will be a civil war within the next decade, and 40 per cent of strong Democrats agree.

Marjorie Taylor Greene, a right-wing congresswoman and a staunch Trump supporter has called for a ‘national divorce’, suggesting that the US should separate into red states and blue states as a way of avoiding civil war.

Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley went further, saying that Texas has talked about seceding for a long time and that the American Constitution allows for that, before retracting her comment. Another republican figure, Ted Cruz, said that if Democrats ever "destroy the country," then Texas would "take NASA, take the military, take the oil" and secede.

However, it’s not Republicans and red states that are merely flirting with secession. Louis Marinelli, the leader of a California secession movement known as "Yes California" also believes that a national divorce is needed to avoid another "civil war."

Democrat scholars and elites have been making the case for blue-state secession too, as a way to ensure democracy, equality, and welfare in these states.

Recent headlines have brought renewed attention to calls for state secession, igniting debate over the legitimacy and right of states to pursue such a move.

In February 2024, YouGov polled 35,000 American adults on their views on secession. The poll found that around one in four believed they would support their state seceding from the Union — ranging from 9% in Connecticut to 36% in Alaska, among 46 states analyzed, out of the 50 American states.

The divide between blue and red states was apparent in the 2020 election, with many Trump-supporting states echoing those that seceded from the Union in 1861.

This parallel becomes even clearer when considering that states with the strictest abortion laws, most relaxed gun regulations, and those imposing restrictions on gender-affirming care and LGBTQ issues have often been strong supporters of Donald Trump, many of which were originally in the Confederacy.

Enter the elections

Compounding such divisions are the growing differences in public opinion and voting preferences between rural and urban areas. Trump's 2016 victory was driven by strong support from rural America, and his margin in these regions increased in 2020.

This explains why his 2020 loss resulted from higher voter turnout in urban areas, with his strongest backing coming from white, rural, working-class counties.

The deep divisions in the American electorate manifest themselves in early projections of the possible outcome of the 2024 presidential election. According to a recent analysis of Reuters/Ipsos polling, Harris is drawing more support from Black voters than President Joe Biden did when he was in the race this year, while Republican Donald Trump's support among white voters has risen somewhat in recent months.

The outcome of the 2024 U.S. election is unlikely to resolve existing racial and social voting patterns; instead, it may exacerbate them and fuel secessionist claims. Trump supporters, already sceptical of the 2020 election’s legitimacy, might resist a 2024 loss.

Additionally, the assassination attempt on Trump may have reinforced beliefs among his supporters and the far right that they are being delegitimised and excluded from the political competition, potentially leading to increased resentment and violence. Conversely, if Trump wins, Biden supporters may suspect election subversion, deepening the divide between Democrats and other Americans.

The United States is increasingly resembling a fractured nation, with two distinct Americas locked in conflict over social, political, and constitutional issues, as well as the country’s role on the global stage.

In a spring report titled “Disruptions on the Horizon,” a Canadian Think Thank suggested that Canada should prepare for the scenario of an American civil war.  

Whether or not this scenario unfolds, or discourse on it is hyperbole, one thing is clear: escalating ideological divisions, democratic erosion, and domestic unrest in the U.S. have undermined Washington's position as the leader of the so-called “Free World.”

Dr. Aicha el Basri is a Moroccan author and journalist. She is a former spokeswoman for the African Union and the United Nations Mission in Darfur, and a recipient of the 2015 American Ridenhour Prize for Truth-Telling.

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