US Election 2024: The swing states where Arab-American voters are key

Polls have opened across many states in the US on Election Day, with voters deciding who will become their next president.

Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held their final campaign rallies in battleground states on Monday evening.

Arab Americans, many of whom are primarily concerned with foreign policy and Israel’s ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon, are expected to have a key impact in this election, particularly as it is anticipated to be a close race between Harris and Trump.

There are several swing states, including Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

According to various reports, seven swing states will decide who is sworn in as the next president, with their polling averages within a margin of error, making each battleground vital.

Here, The New Arab looks at some of the battleground states that have an Arab-American majority.

Michigan

Michigan is well known for its large Arab-American community, which is estimated to be made up of around 200,000 people.

This state has long been Democratic, with many voters, particularly Arab-Americans, furious at the Biden administration for its handling of Israel’s war on Gaza as well as US military aid sent to Israel.

According to The New Arab’s Arabic-language sister publication, Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, many Arab-Americans in Michigan are leaning towards supporting the Green Party’s Jill Stein instead.

A poll by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) also found that Stein and Harris were tied among Muslim voters, with Trump falling behind.

The Uncommitted National movement, which started in Michigan, said in September they are not directly endorsing Harris but also warned about what a second Trump presidency could mean for anti-war movements and people in Gaza.

However, some Arab Americans in Michigan are overlooking Trump’s previous anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim rhetoric, arguing that Harris would be much worse when it comes to Gaza.

This comes as a recent poll by the Arab American Institute found that 42 percent of US Arab voters favour Trump, versus 41 percent who support Harris.

Others in Michigan have noted that Trump was responsible for many decisions that impacted the Middle East, imposing the so-called ‘Muslim ban’, ordering the assassination of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, backing out from the Iran nuclear deal and intensifying the war in Yemen, among others.

Some noted that he has previously used the term "Palestinian" as a slur, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has referred to him as a "best friend".

Last week, Trump visited Dearborn where he invited local leaders and imams to the stage and went to a cafe serving halal food. He also welcomed the mayor of Detroit to one of his rallies.

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is home to around 126,000 Arab-Americans who have a long history in the state, dating back to the 19th century.

Many Palestinian Americans arrived here in the 1950s, while Christian Lebanese communities settled there in the 1860s.

In 2020, residents here were keen to unseat Trump, rallying instead behind US President Joe Biden in 2020, allowing him to win by a small margin.

However, many feel let down by Biden as the death toll in Gaza has surpassed 43,000 people since October 2023.

So far, opinion polls show that Harris and Trump are locked in a tight race, with Reuters reporting that overall, voters view both candidates unfavourably, but not enough to refrain from voting.

In the city of Pittsburgh, Trump spoke at length about economic issues, while Harris vowed to be a President for "all Americans" before going door to door in a final attempt to persuade voters.

According to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, citing the Democratic analytics firm TargetSmart, early voting has shown voters learning towards Harris. Trump campaign officials have also said early voting results showed women’s participation outpacing men.

Arizona

Around 77,000 Arab-Americans live in Arizona, where Biden won by 0.3 percent over Trump in 2020.

Historically, the state has voted Republican in the past six elections.

Poll tracking platform FiveThirtyEight said on Monday that Trump appeared to be ahead by 2.1 percent while entering into Election Day, however, this falls into the margin of error for polls.

Currently, Arizona has more registered Republican voters, around 34.7 percent, compared to Democrats who have 30.5 percent. The others are third-party voters.

According to NBC News, Democrats have made gains by bringing moderate Republican and Hispanic voters into their coalition.