Explainer: What does Israel's evacuation order mean for Palestinians in Gaza?

Israel ordered the evacuation of over a million Palestinians from north Gaza on Friday as an anticipated ground invasion of the besieged enclave looms.

Residents have been told to head south of Wadi Gaza, a valley that cuts across the strip. There are fears that Israel is engaging in forced displacement and ethnic cleansing of Palestinians, after indiscriminately bombing the territory and killing over 1,800 people.

Concerns have been expressed as to whether the order is legal under international law and whether it is even feasible for so many people to comply with it in such a short space of time.

Gaza, nearly half of whose population of two million are children, has been devastated by days of heavy Israeli airstrikes.

The UN has called for the evacuation order to be rescinded, saying it could turn "what is already a tragedy into a calamitous situation" – as has the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) humanitarian group.

Hamas maximizes harm to civilians in Gaza by hiding behind them.

The IDF minimizes harm to civilians in Gaza by dropping endless flyers urging them to leave harms way. pic.twitter.com/zLXmQDj5TT

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) October 13, 2023

"The Israeli military demand that 1.2 million civilians in northern Gaza relocate to its south within 24 hours, absent of any guarantees of safety or return, would amount to the war crime of forcible transfer," NRC secretary general Jan Egeland said.

"My colleagues inside Gaza confirm that there are countless people in the northern parts who have no means to safely relocate under the constant barrage of fire."

'Steadfastness'

Palestine's President Mahmoud Abbas has warned that the forcible displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, where most are already refugees, would be akin to a second Nakba ("catastrophe" in Arabic), the official Wafa news agency reported.

The term Nakba refers to the ethnic cleansing visited upon the Palestinian people during the 1948 creation of the Israeli state. It is a core experience etched permanently into their collective memory and is understood as a process that continues to this day.

Palestinians therefore pride themselves on their national value of sumud ("steadfastness" in Arabic) – a dogged determination to remain on their land no matter what.

"The whole point of this is that Palestinians' experience is one of being dispossessed – since 1948, since the Nakba and the creation of the state of Israel, which was premised on the expulsion of approximately 750,000 Palestinians from their homes," said Sara Husseini, director of the British Palestinian Committee advocacy group.

"[They] thought they would be able to return after a few weeks of fighting and none of them have been able to."

It raises questions as to how many people will be willing to leave north Gaza, particularly given the potential risk of being pushed further south and into neighbouring Egypt's Sinai Peninsula.

Husseini said Palestinians in the strip are being faced with an "absolutely terrifying dilemma".

"You either stay in your homes at the very real risk that you, your family, your children will be killed, or you pack up a few things and you leave knowing that you're likely never going to come back," she said.

"You'll be made refugees – for some of these people, for a second or third time."

The Israeli army said that residents of Gaza City, the most important and populated town in the enclave, will be able to return there "only when another announcement permitting it is made".

Shelter

Whether Palestinians want to travel south or not, evacuating more than a million people in 24 hours is likely to prove impossible, especially given the damage caused by days of airstrikes. It is also not clear where shelter could be found for such a vast number of displaced individuals.

Ben Jamal, director of the UK-based Palestine Solidarity Campaign, said the evacuation order was not a humanitarian gesture.

"Israel is signalling its intention to commit war crimes on an immense scale," he said.

"It is seeking to pre-emptively justify the mass slaughter of many thousands of civilians, on the basis that they were warned to leave and should do so if they care for their lives."

Gaza rulers Hamas dismissed the Israeli evacuation order.

The current Israeli assault on the strip began after Hamas militants launched an attack last Saturday that killed over 1,300 people in Israel.

"Our Palestinian people reject the threat of the occupation [Israeli] leaders and its call for them to leave their homes and flee from them to the south or Egypt," the group said, adding that there will be "no displacement".

To demonstrate the stunning scale of this mass displacement order in Gaza, each of these lines represents a full bus-load of Civilians moving from their homes to a random point to the South of Gaza. To do this, it would take 4x as many buses in the whole of New York City. https://t.co/cAdPYHVl54 pic.twitter.com/5NUfeLeMWx

— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) October 13, 2023

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi had previously said on Thursday that Palestinians should "stay steadfast and remain on their land", amid calls for his country to allow safe passage for civilians.

Egypt is committed to ensuring the delivery "of aid, both medical and humanitarian at this difficult time," Sisi said, affirming Cairo's "firm position" of ensuring Palestinians' "legitimate rights".

The New Arab's Gaza correspondent said on Friday afternoon that she was evacuating her relatives from Gaza City.

"Even in the south, all the people here, they are worried. They live under… anxiety and terror and… panic. We cannot even do anything. We [are] just afraid," she added.

"We [are] just waiting [for] our fate and waiting for the new massacres that would be committed by the Israeli army."

Agencies contributed to this story.