As Donald Trump wins US elections, Iran faces currency slide, divided reactions, and fears of conflict

In Tehran's first official response to Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani downplayed its significance, saying, "The election of the US president is irrelevant to us... there is no difference at all between these two people [Donald Trump and Kamala Harris]."

However, the depreciation of Iran's official currency against the US dollar on Wednesday suggest that the election outcome is indeed significant for Iran.

Since the rise of Islamists to power in 1979, the Iranian rial has weakened with each instance of international tension, regional military conflict, or political upheaval. On Wednesday, the exchange rate in the free market reached nearly 700 thousand rials to one US dollar.

In her brief comment on the US election, Mohajerani added, "Over the past four decades, Iran has become resilient to sanctions, and we are not concerned about Trump's re-election. Sanctions have strengthened Iran's internal capabilities, and we are prepared to withstand new sanctions."

The prospect of heightened sanctions and increased international pressure following Trump's re-election weighs heavily on the minds of both ordinary Iranians and experts.

Consequences of Trump's return to power

During his previous term, Trump withdrew unilaterally from the nuclear agreement with Iran and enacted a "maximum pressure" policy, imposing more than a thousand sanctions on Iran during his four years in office. This stance has created both supporters and opponents of Trump among Iranians.

One of Trump's supporters, Masih Alinejad, an Iranian activist in exile in the United States, publicly welcomed Trump's victory.

In a post on the X social network, Alinejad congratulated Trump, stressing, "Congratulations President-elect Donald J. Trump on your clear victory… We urge you to isolate the Islamic Republic, cut off its means of survival, and ban its lobbyists from international circles."

Iranian dissidents in exile were not the only ones pleased with Trump's victory; many inside Iran who support regime change also appeared satisfied.

A 42-year-old pharmacist, who chose to remain anonymous, told The New Arab his reasons for celebrating Trump's win, "Just like before, Trump will increase the pressure on the regime. Given the recent tensions between Iran and Israel, a military attack on Iran might even be planned."

When asked about Iran's potential fate in such a scenario, possibly suffering like Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, or Syria, he replied, "I don't care what happens—as long as the Islamic Republic is gone."

Not all government critics shared this view, however. Many were concerned about the consequences of Trump's return to the White House. They believed that aggressive policies toward Iran would intensify political and economic hardships for ordinary citizens and dissidents.

According to this perspective, Trump's maximum pressure strategy led to severe economic difficulties for the public, while the regime continued to bypass sanctions to survive.

A retired government employee in Tehran expressed his concern to TNA, "I am very worried about this result. It means more economic hardship and an increased risk of war with Israel."

No care for the Iranian people

Political science professor and government critic Sadegh Zibakalam shared these concerns. An advocate for greater engagement with the West, he has been prosecuted multiple times for his views. Zibakalam considered Trump's presence in the White House a threat to Iranians.

Responding to Trump's victory, he wrote, "Congratulations to the [Iranian] opposition who supports attacks on Iran... let's see how Trump—who is racist, anti-women, anti-Black, anti-immigrant, anti-Latino, anti-Palestinian, and anti-Muslim—will promote democracy and improve human rights in Iran."

Apart from these polarised opinions, some Iranians saw little distinction between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to US foreign policy.

A 21-year-old engineering student in Tehran remarked to TNA, "American foreign policy isn't determined by who is in the White House; neither the Democrats nor Republicans care about the Iranian people. They both pursue their own interests."

Sofia Nasrollahi, a veteran journalist based in Tehran, voiced a similar sentiment on X, "A world in which Trump becomes the president of the most influential country for a second time, with a high turnout, is too messed up to be taken seriously."