No clarity about who's in charge in Niger, two days after 'attempted' coup d'etat

Two days after mutinous soldiers ousted Niger’s democratically elected president, it was still unclear Friday morning who was running the country and what mediation efforts were underway, as analysts warned that political chaos could set back the fight on extremist groups and increase Russia's influence in the region.

On Thursday, several hundred people gathered in the capital, Niamey, and chanted support for the Russian private military group Wagner while waving Russian flags. Later, they burned cars and ransacked the headquarters of the president's political party. “We’re fed up,” said Omar Issaka, one of the protestors.

“We are tired of being targeted by the men in the bush ... Down with the French people. We’re going to collaborate with Russia now,” he said.

The soldiers have not announced a leader and President Mohamed Bazoum, who was elected two years ago in Niger’s first peaceful, democratic transfer of power since its independence from France in 1960, has not resigned.

Some of the last public communications from the government included a defiant tweet by the president Thursday declaring that democracy would prevail and a call by the Foreign Minister Hassoumi Massoudou, on media outlet France 24, for Nigeriens to stand against the mutiny.

Someone close to the president who is not authorized to speak about the situation, told The Associated Press that Bazoum has no intention of resigning and talks were ongoing.

However, it's unclear who's involved in these dialogues, the nature of the discussions or how they're proceeding.

Coup not 'definitive' but sanctions possible amid growing Wagner influence

Analysts say the coup could destabilize the country and threatens to starkly reshape the international community’s engagement with the Sahel region.

Bazoum is a key ally in the West’s efforts to battle the jihadists, and the West African nation has been seen as the last major Western partner standing against extremism in a region where anti-French sentiment has paved the way for the Russian private military group Wagner .

Neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso have both ousted the French military, which previously provided aid in their fight against jihadists. Mali has contracted Wagner, and it’s believed the mercenaries will soon be in Burkina Faso.

Earlier this week, The Economic Community of West African States said it was sending Benin President Patrice Talon to lead mediation efforts, but as of Friday Talon was not in the country. During their first address to the nation Wednesday night, the mutineers urged “external partners” not to interfere.

French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna told French media Friday that President Emmanuel Macron has spoken several times to Bazoum. Colonna said France believes there are still possible exits from the crisis, and that Paris regards the attempted coup as lacking any legitimacy.

Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of trip by Macron to Papua New Guinea, Colonna also said countries in the West African ECOWAS bloc were likely to meet on Sunday with a discussion on imposing sanctions possible.

"If you hear me say attempted coup d'etat, it's because we don't consider that things are definitive," Colonna was quoted by French media as saying. The foreign ministry confirmed the broad lines of her comments.

On Thursday, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, said the country's “substantial cooperation with the Government of Niger is contingent on Niger’s continued commitment to democratic standards".

Lost 'Western interests', civilians 'bearing the brunt'

In this respect, Niger could lose millions of dollars in military aid and assistance, which the United States and European countries have recently poured in an attempt to help in the fight against Salafi-jihadi extremism.

The United States in early 2021 said it had provided Niger with more than $500 million in military assistance and training programs since 2012, one of the largest such support programs in sub-Saharan Africa. The European Union earlier this year launched a 27 million-euro ($30 million) military training mission in Niger. The United States has more than 1,000 service personnel in the country. France has 1,500 soldiers, which conduct joint operations with the Nigeriens.

The coup has dashed hopes of collaboration between Sahelian countries and Western powers, which offered a more robust response to the jihadist insurrection when compared with the strategies to arm civilians in Burkina Faso or the responsibility given to Wagner in Mali, said Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim, senior Sahel analyst for the International Crisis Group.

As uncertainty lingers about who's in charge, insecurity could worsen. “The army officers will be busy positioning themselves in power struggles and abandon the fight against jihadists,” said Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.

Rights groups also warn that civilians always bear the brunt of these mutinies.

“During a coup, the first victims are always the same: the most vulnerable, women and children,” said Drissa Traore, secretary-general of the International Federation for Human Rights.

On Thursday the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said it has paused operations in Niger, where more than 370,000 people are internally displaced and more than 4 million rely on aid.