Israel’s expanding wars is pushing Iran to seek nuclear weapons as 'deterrence'

Israel's continuous efforts to expand its war to more parts of the Middle East have not only led to the deaths of tens of thousands of civilians and the extensive destruction of cities, schools, and hospitals in Gaza and Lebanon but has also altered the concept of "military deterrence" for regional powers.

In Iran, as Israel's attacks expanded into new territories, more officials are now advocating for the pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Iran's regional strategy once focused on supporting proxy forces in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen while developing its missile program, however a major shift occurred with the Israeli strike on Iran's consulate in Damascus.

Previously, Arab countries and Iran had proposed the creation of a zone free from weapons of mass destruction and nuclear arms in the region. However, this proposal was routinely rejected by the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, who are among the primary supporters of Israel.

Iran's nuclear program dates back to the years before the 1978 revolution and has seen significant growth over the past two decades. Despite this, Tehran has long emphasised the peaceful intentions behind its nuclear activities, citing a fatwa issued by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, that forbids the military use of nuclear technology.

Khamenei holds ultimate authority over all matters in Iran, especially those related to military and international policy. His fatwa is a religious decree that all Iranians are expected to follow. However, after Israel's destruction of Gaza and its subsequent direct attack on Iran by targeting its consulate in Syria, calls to overturn the fatwa and shift Iran’s military strategy have increased.

The most significant of these calls came last week, when 39 Iranian MPs sent a letter to the Supreme National Security Council, urging a revision of the country's defence policy and requesting authorisation to develop nuclear weapons.

Nuclear weapons as a deterrent

While the specifics of the letter and its signatories remain unclear, some MPs have revealed that the proposal aims to enable Iran to defend itself against potential Israeli aggression.

Ahmad Bakshaish Ardestani, a member of Iran's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, argued, "Iran must have nuclear weapons to demonstrate deterrence, especially against Israel, which already possesses such capabilities."

Ardestani highlighted the killing of civilians in Gaza and Lebanon and the unwavering support from Western countries for Israel's actions. He insisted that Iran's military strategy needs to adapt to these new realities.

"If Israel uses nuclear weapons against us, and we lack a similar capability, the consequences would be dire. Our objective is not aggression, but deterrence and self-defence," he was quoted as saying.

The first serious discussions about Iran's need for nuclear weapons began after Israel's attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria, which killed several senior Iranian diplomats. While Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes against Israel, concerns emerged about the country's ability to prevent future attacks.

On 9 May, Kamal Kharrazi, a moderate politician and advisor to the Supreme Leader, stated in an interview that Iran possesses the capacity to produce a nuclear bomb. He warned that if Israel's threats persist, Tehran may reconsider its nuclear policy.

"We have no intention of building a nuclear bomb, but if Iran's existence is threatened, we will need to adjust our nuclear strategy," he said.

A shift in political sentiment

Before Israel's recent military actions in the Middle East, only a fringe group of far-right Iranian politicians supported the idea of developing nuclear weapons for deterrence. However, the conflict that began on 7 October 2023, with Israel's actions in the region—backed by the United States and Western allies—has shifted the stance of even moderate and reformist politicians in Iran.

Saeed Lilaz, a reformist politician known for advocating compromise with the West, is among those who have reconsidered Iran's nuclear strategy.

Previously imprisoned for opposing hardline policies, Lilaz recently stated, "Given Iran's geopolitical situation, we need a defensive shield, and that shield is nuclear capability. Our strategy must change."

Lilaz emphasised that Iran's pursuit of nuclear military power is not solely to counter Israel. According to him, Israel alone cannot pose a substantial threat to Iran or even to Hamas.

"Countries like Germany, France, the UK, and the United States are as deeply involved in the Gaza conflict as if Israel were their own territory. When we speak of an Israeli attack, it's akin to saying a city in California is engaging in hostilities with Iran," he concluded.

While Tehran is still awaiting Tel Aviv's response to its second direct missile attack on Israel, some commentators have highlighted that Khamenei's fatwa might not be an obstacle to developing a nuclear bomb in Iran.

According to the Shia branch of Islam, a religious leader's fatwa can evolve over time, adapting to changing needs and circumstances.

On 2 October, this idea was highlighted in an editorial in Javan daily, which is funded by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The editorial stated, "There are those who would remind the Americans that Shiaism possesses a dynamic nature, allowing it to make decisive new choices at critical turning points."