Israel signals looming escalation with Lebanon to achieve latest war goal

Israel on Tuesday said it would expand its war goals to include the return of northern residents who had been displaced due to attacks launched by Hezbollah from southern Lebanon, a move that could lead to a full-scale war with the group.

The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the Security Cabinet had approved the "safe return of northern residents to their homes" as part of Israel's war aims.

Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged near-daily fire since the outbreak of Israel’s war on Gaza, with the Lebanese group allied with Hamas. On both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border, thousands of people have been forced from their homes due to the fighting in northern Israel and southern Lebanon respectively.

Since 8 October, Israel has killed 878 people in Lebanon, over 400 of which are believed to be Hezbollah fighters. However, the dead also include at least 150 civilians, with over 110,000 people displaced from their homes in Lebanon's south.

In northern Israel, around 23 soldiers have been killed, with 96,000 civilians displaced from border towns and villages.

Though the violence has so far been contained, the threat of it escalating into an all-out war between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah, and a potential wider regional war, has been something the US, Europe and regional powers have been trying to avert.

However, the decision by Israel to incorporate the return of the population to its northern border into its war goals paves the way for Tel Aviv to potentially launch a full-scale war on Hezbollah and Lebanon.

On Monday evening, Israeli media reported that US envoy Amos Hochstein informed Israeli officials that a wide-scale war against Hezbollah in Lebanon would not bring residents of the northern regions back to their homes, a view opposed by Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant.

Gallant stressed during the meeting that Hezbollah continues to align itself with Hamas and refuses to end the confrontations, claiming that "the only remaining way" to bring the northern 'residents' back to their homes would be through a military operation.

Gallant told Hochstein during the meeting that Hezbollah continues to align itself with Hamas and refuses to end the fighting, and therefore “the only remaining way” to bring the northern 'residents' back to their homes would be through a military operation.

The incendiary nature of Gallant’s rhetoric comes amid claims made in the Israeli media that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is planning a cabinet reshuffle that would see him replaced as defence minister with National Right party leader Gideon S’ar, due to his alleged previous lack of support for an Israeli attack on Hezbollah.

However, other reports indicate that Gallant's potential dismissal is not related to his stance on Lebanon but due to Gallant's opposition to the government's ultra-Orthodox military enlistment bill and disagreement with Netanyahu over Israel's occupation of the Philadelphi Corridor in Gaza, which is the main roadblock to a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal.

In a meeting with Netanyahu on Monday, at the Ministry of Defence headquarters in Tel Aviv, Gallant was bullish on the prospects of war with Lebanon

“We constantly talk about escalation or a settlement, but there is no possibility of reaching a settlement," he said.

"There is only one option, which is to move forward with full force and deploy all our military power in order to bring the northern residents back to their homes," he added.

The moves and rhetoric by the Israeli government have put Lebanon on high alert and stoked fears among many that a full-scale Israeli attack is inevitable. Previously, only the most extreme elements within the current Israeli far-right coalition were enthusiastic about an Israeli war on Hezbollah, but now Israel has essentially made it part of its policy.

There are rumours within the Israeli media that Israel could invade Lebanon and create a buffer zone to prevent Hezbollah attacks, with the Israeli military allegedly supportive of an imminent attack.

An Israeli newspaper said on Tuesday that the current time is the closest for Tel Aviv to attack 'Hezbollah' in Lebanon, with the attack expected to begin no later than 4 to 6 weeks from now at the latest.

In its analysis, The Jerusalem Post stated: "If the war on "Hezbollah" does not begin within 4 to 6 weeks, it will be impossible to launch it before the spring of 2025."

Israeli newspaper Haaretz also reported last week that the military had decided "the moment was right" for a larger attack on Hezbollah.

"The Northern Command, where most senior leaders in Israel are pressing to intensify attacks, feels that the moment is right," Haaretz quoted Israeli journalist Amos Harel as saying.

However, some within Lebanon believe Israel is bluffing, given Hezbollah has demonstrated that it could inflict devastating damage on almost every area of Israel. Moreover, if Israel were to attack Hezbollah, it would almost certainly lead to war with Iran-aligned forces and possibly even Iran itself.

Additionally, both US and Israeli military experts have warned against Israel launching a full-scale attack on Hezbollah, saying it would lead to mass civilian deaths and destruction in Lebanon and Israel.