Iraqi PM al-Sudani visits Kurdistan region, urges swift KRG cabinet formation

Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani conducted a one-day visit to the Iraqi Kurdistan Region on Wednesday, calling on Kurdish leaders to speed up the formation of a new Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) following the 20 October parliamentary elections.

Sudani's visit comes amid growing regional tensions and heightened internal political challenges, with both Kurdish and Iraqi federal leaders underscoring the importance of stability.

Prime Minister Sudani was greeted by KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani at Erbil International Airport, marking the beginning of a day filled with high-level meetings in Erbil and Sulaimaniyah. 

The Iraqi leader met with key Kurdish officials and called on them to accelerate forming a government to address pressing political and economic concerns. Nearly a month has passed since the elections, with formal discussions on a new KRG cabinet still ongoing.

In a social media post following their meeting, Masrour Barzani wrote, "During talks with PM Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani, I stressed the need to decouple payments to the Kurdistan Region from political disputes. We agreed the resumption of oil exports serves the interests of the whole country, and reaffirmed the coordination between Erbil and Baghdad."

The discussions extended beyond government formation, with Sudani and Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani addressing sensitive topics, including Baghdad-Erbil relations and regional security amid Israel's war on Gaza and Lebanon.

A statement from the Kurdistan Region Presidency emphasised "steps toward a new KRG cabinet, the importance of regional stability, and the need to shield Iraq from the impacts of escalating conflicts."

Election oversight and political tensions

Sudani's visit is the first time since Iraq's Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) supervised elections in the Kurdish region, a step he considered significant for fostering cooperation. 

"The visit by al-Sudani was rather symbolic," a well-informed Kurdish source told The New Arab, citing Sudani's hope for a unified Kurdish government to facilitate dialogue over longstanding issues with Baghdad.

Regarding the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdistan region, which were halted since March 2023, the source noted that Sudani told the Kurdish officials that his government deals with the issue according to interpretations by Iraq's top court and that his government is implementing the policies by Iraq's ruling coalition the State-Run Coalition, that includes the KDP and PUK.  

Election results confirmed the KDP's dominance, securing 39 seats, followed by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) with 23 seats. However, opposition groups such as the Kurdistan Justice Group (KJG) and the Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) rejected the results, alleging voter fraud. The reported voter turnout reached 72%, with five of the 100 seats reserved for minority groups. Despite these allegations, the KRG and IHEC have dismissed the claims as unfounded.

The resumption of Kurdish oil exports was a key point of Sudani's discussions with Kurdish leaders. Exports from the Kurdistan Region were halted in March 2023 following an international ruling favouring Baghdad's control over Iraq's oil exports, leading to a major fiscal strain on Iraqi Kurdistan's economy.

"We agreed the resumption of oil exports serves the interests of the whole country," Barzani posted, adding that the KRG sees predictable revenue flows as crucial for maintaining its public sector services.

In line with Iraq's Supreme Federal Court ruling from February, the KRG is required to transfer all oil revenues to Baghdad, which in turn has committed to paying salaries for the Kurdistan Region's civil servants through Iraqi public banks. 

The KRG has faced financial hurdles as it requires roughly 940 billion Iraqi dinars monthly to pay its 1.2 million civil servants, with local officials pressing for swift action on resumed oil exports.

Concerns over Kirkuk and National Census

The leaders also addressed the upcoming national census, scheduled for 20-21 November, Iraq's first since 1997. While intended as a tool for development planning, the census has stirred political sensitivities, especially in Kirkuk, a disputed area rich in oil and ethnic tensions are high. Kurdish leaders have voiced concerns that the census results could be used to influence demographics in Kirkuk. 

The KRG recently issued a statement stressing that the census "should not be used for political aims" and should remain focused on fostering balanced development.

Beyond immediate policy discussions, Sudani's visit is seen as part of his broader strategy to garner support for a potential second term in 2025. Facing opposition from Iran-backed Shia factions in Baghdad, Sudani is looking to bolster alliances in Kurdistan. Former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who leads the State of Law Coalition, is reportedly among those challenging Sudani's re-election plans.

During his visit, Sudani met with a range of political figures, including KDP leader Masoud Barzani, PUK leader Bafel Talabani, and opposition NGM leader Shaswar Abdulwahid, who advocated for his party to play a significant role in the next KRG cabinet. 

Abdulwahid later announced that Sudani had committed to an expedited disbursement of October salaries for KRG employees, addressing a major grievance among Kurdish citizens.

However, Sudani encountered resistance from some opposition factions. KJG reiterated its refusal to take up its parliamentary seats, citing election fraud. Meanwhile, Lahur Talabany, leader of the newly-formed People's Front, declined a meeting with Sudani, citing past policy disagreements.

While Sudani's visit underscores the push for stability in the Kurdish region, Iraqi Kurdistan's political landscape remains divided. IHEC is currently reviewing complaints from opposition groups, with final rulings expected soon. Observers suggest that KRG cabinet formation may be delayed until after Iraq's federal elections in 2025, with unresolved disputes complicating immediate government talks.

As regional tensions rise and Iraq grapples with internal political fractures, the Iraqi Kurdish region remains a critical player in the country's overall stability. Sudani's visit highlights the Iraqi government's commitment to fostering unity, but underscores the complexities of navigating a fractious political environment.