Iraqi Kurdistan prepares for October elections amid simmering political tensions and Turkey's military offensive

Preparations for the Iraqi Kurdistan region's parliamentary elections on 20 October are ongoing amid fierce disputes among political parties and an ongoing Turkish military offensive in Duhok province.

The main rivals, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) led by Masoud Barzani, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) led by Bafel Talabani, are in a race to secure the majority in the 100-seat assembly, the position of regional president, and the head of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).

The upcoming vote will be the sixth general election in the Kurdistan region, which has been semi-autonomous since 1991, having been postponed multiple times due to political reasons. 

Iraq's Federal Supreme Court ruled on 31 May 2023, against extending the term of the Kurdistan region's parliament as contrary to the country's constitution, declaring the Kurdish legislature terminated and ordering the Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) to supervise fresh general elections in the region.

Jumana Al-Ghalay, the spokesperson of IHEC, told The New Arab, “There are 2,683,618 eligible voters for general voting and 215,960 for special voting in the region, totalling 2,899,578 voters. These are distributed across four electoral districts: Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, Dohuk, and Halabja.” The upcoming elections will feature two alliances and 13 parties. Independent candidates include 19 Christians, with 7 in Erbil, 4 in Sulaymaniyah, and 8 in Dohuk, as well as 20 Turkmen, with 14 in Erbil and 6 in Sulaymaniyah. Additionally, there are 85 individual candidates, she added.

Al-Ghalay also mentioned that by mid-August, IHEC would conduct a lottery to choose the number of participating parties and candidates. Regarding the launch of formal campaigning, she said that the Commissioner Council at IHEC will decide on that and is expected to set the date by the end of August.

The Turkish military campaign against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the economic crisis, marked by delayed salaries due to budget disputes with Baghdad, are also key election topics. Both major parties are concerned about public sentiment regarding their ageing leadership and growing wealth, with a desire for younger faces in politics.

A Kurdish civilian was killed by a Turkish airstrike this month, while the situation in Duhok province deteriorates due to ongoing Turkish aggression deep into the Iraqi Kurdistan region to fight against PKK militants. Turkey deployed hundreds of troops and military vehicles into Kurdistan in June, establishing checkpoints and conducting patrols in Duhok’s Barwari Bala and Amedi town, located 90 km northeast of Duhok. Turkey's current military campaign has resulted in several civilian casualties, forced evacuations of Kurdish and Christian villagers, and widespread destruction of wild pastures and forests, according to Christian Peacemaker Teams (CPT).

When asked whether voters in Amedi and other towns in Duhok province can vote if the Turkish army continues its aggression, Al-Ghalay stated that protecting the stability and security of the areas is the duty of the Iraqi armed forces, including Kurdish security forces. A senior committee tasked with preserving the security of the electoral process will decide how to protect the voting stations in Duhok.

Masud Abdul Khaliq, a Kurdish political observer and head of the Standard Kurd media institution, told TNA that a Kurdish ruling party had invited the Turkish army to launch a military operation in Duhok to disrupt the electoral process in the Kurdistan region. However, he asserted that the elections would be held on time due to international community pressure.

"The elections will be held on time, including in areas in Duhok province where the Turkish army is conducting military aggression, and people will cast their votes under any circumstances. The Kurdish political side that brought the Turkish army aims to disrupt the election, but the election results will not benefit that political side, and people will participate in the elections."

Abdul Khaliq's speech indirectly accuses the KDP, which is the de facto ruler in Duhok and Erbil provinces and coordinates with Turkey’s army because both Turkey and KDP are arch foes of the PKK, which has bases in the mountainous areas inside the Iraqi Kurdistan region.

As the elections approach, Kurdish nationalist rhetoric has intensified to appeal to the public, alongside promises of economic and developmental gains. The two main parties are exchanging accusations through Kurdish-language media and conferences in major cities.

Prominent opposition movements include the New Generation Movement, the Kurdistan Communist Party, and the Popular Front party led by Lahur Sheikh Jangi, a dissident from the PUK, and former Kurdish lawmaker Ali Hama Salih’s National Stance Movement. They focus on living conditions, poverty, unemployment, and corruption. Despite these new movements, the KDP and PUK remain strong due to consistent support from parts of the Peshmerga forces and security forces.

The last Kurdistan elections, in 2018, witnessed a low turnout of 57% and was marred by alleged large-scale voter fraud by the two main rival parties, the KDP and the PUK. The elections resulted in a significant victory for the KDP with 45 seats, followed by the PUK with 21 seats, and the remaining seats distributed among the Change Movement, the New Generation Movement, the Islamic Group, and other smaller parties.

The PKK, established in 1978 with Marxist inspirations, is designated a terrorist organisation by Turkey and many of its Western allies, including the United States and the European Union. Since 1984, the group has been involved in a sporadic armed insurgency within Turkey in a struggle for greater Kurdish rights. Turkey launched "Operation Claw-Lock" in April 2022 to secure its border with northern Iraq, from where it accused Kurdish separatists of launching attacks against Turkish territory.

This election is expected to bring new faces and potentially transformative changes to the Iraqi Kurdistan Region's political landscape.