Gaza war sees Arab Americans tilt toward Trump

Former President Donald Trump holds a slim lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among Arab American voters, according to a poll released on Monday by YouGov.

The Saudi-based news outlet Arab News commissioned a poll looking at voter intentions among Arab Americans ahead of the upcoming US presidential election on 5 November. 

The poll indicates that 45 percent of Arab Americans favour Trump, while Harris follows closely behind at 43 percent. 

Notably, Trump is perceived as more likely to resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict by respondents, leading Harris 39 percent to 33 percent on that issue.  

On broader MENA topics, both candidates are tied at 38 percent. The poll also highlighted a remarkable 87 percent voter turnout among Arab Americans, with Palestine cited as the top priority issue for 29 percent of respondents, surpassing concerns about the economy (21 percent) and racism (13 percent). 

The New Arab's US correspondent Brooke Anderson highlighted the shift in support toward Trump reflects growing dissatisfaction within the Arab American community about the Biden administration's handling of the ongoing war on Gaza. 

"I noticed a shift after Trump was endorsed last month by the mayor of Hamtramck, who said Trump had courted his vote," Anderson told The New Arab.

"He said he thought Trump would be good for business. Others have said they’re supporting him because he said he'll end the war. It seems like Trump saw an opening, so he’s been doing a lot of engagement in Arab and Muslim areas." 

Last week, both Harris and Trump campaigned in Michigan, a critical battleground state in the presidential race.

Michigan is one of the three "blue wall" states, alongside Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, that will be pivotal in determining the election outcome.

As reported by Anderson earlier this month, Trump received a key endorsement from Amer Ghalib, the Yemeni-born mayor of Hamtramck, the only US city with a Muslim-majority city council.

This was a surprising boost for Trump, who previously imposed a Muslim ban and has often criticised immigrants in his campaign rhetoric.

Meanwhile, three Hamtramck city council members have endorsed Harris.

Diverse voting blocs will be crucial to winning Michigan, and Trump has been capitalising on frustrations with Harris over US support for Israel's offensive in Gaza and involvement in Lebanon, following the escalation last year.

His allies have engaged with community leaders in Michigan for months, particularly in Detroit, where there is a significant Arab American population.

In a direct appeal to Arab and Muslim voters, Trump reiterated his stance on Truth Social, claiming that former Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney "wants to go to war with every Muslim country".

He also warned that if Harris wins, the Middle East will "spend the next four decades going up in flames".

Trump further criticised Cheney for campaigning alongside Harris, portraying her as a hawk and urging Arab American voters to back him instead.

These attacks followed Cheney and Harris's town hall events in key swing states.

"I think it's effective because they're a community that have been ignored for a long time, so the engagement will resonate," TNA's Brooke Anderson stated.

"Also, it's good messaging to remind people about Liz Cheney's father's role in the Iraq war."  

Former US Vice President Dick Cheney faced significant scrutiny for his involvement in the Iraq and Afghanistan conflicts. 

The affiliation could further alienate Harris from garnering support from Arab American communities.  

Both Liz and Dick Cheney have endorsed Harris and argued that Trump poses a threat to democracy. 

Despite these efforts to engage with Arab Americans, Trump continues to portray himself as the most pro-Israel president in US history.  

Arab Americans expressed frustration with President Joe Biden during his re-election campaign, particularly regarding his handling of the war and support for Israel amid the killing of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza.  

This discontent has extended to Harris, who has yet to propose specific policy changes regarding US support for Israel, instead emphasising the need for a peace deal. 

Earlier this month, Harris met briefly with Arab American leaders during a campaign visit to Michigan to listen to their concerns about the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. 

Polls indicate a tight race between Trump and Harris in Michigan, traditionally a Democratic stronghold that Trump won in 2016. 

The results could serve as a warning for Democrats, as Biden’s strong support for Israel may be undermining Harris's chances among a demographic that played a crucial role in Michigan, where Biden won by just 150,000 votes in 2020.