Fear in Amman: Where does Jordan stand on Israel's war on Gaza?

Despite no love lost with Hamas and an entrenched peace treaty with Israel, Jordan feels existential winds from Israel's war on Gaza triggered by the 7 October attack known as Operation “Al-Aqsa Flood”.

With little leverage and few policy options, Amman is preparing for possibly unprecedented repercussions that could further undermine its national security from its western front, even as its northern front with Syria is permeated by the deadly fallout of the Captagon drug trade.

Foremost of the worries in Amman is that Israel, under the cover of its war in Gaza, could forcibly transfer large numbers of Palestinians in the West Bank into Jordanian soil.

While chairing an armed forces meeting this month, Jordanian King Abdullah warned that the displacement issue is a red line saying his country would protect its borders and support the "steadfastness of the Palestinian people on their land" and disllow "new waves of refugees".

Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Al-Safadi echoed his king, saying any attempt to displace Palestinians from the West Bank would be "considered a declaration of war".

Why is the issue of Palestinian displacement considered so sensitive in Jordan?  

The Arab-Israeli conflict had an exceptional impact on Jordan. The kingdom lost control of the West Bank, which was part of Jordan, in the 1967 war, including losing control over Islam's third holiest site Al-Aqsa Mosque.

Jordan received hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees, which changed the demographic composition. Today, Jordanian citizens of Palestinian origin are about half of the population. 

Jordan, where foreign aid is an essential part of its annual budget, has in recent years received hundreds of thousands of Syrian and Iraqi refugees following the civil wars in the two countries, which has increased pressure on services and infrastructure. Another wave of refugees could be catastrophic.

The fragmentation of Palestinian territories due to settlements and restrictions on holy sites, coupled with Arab normalization efforts that exclude Palestinians, poses a threat to the Palestinian right of return and creates demographic risks for Jordan. At the same time, some in Israel are reviving plans to maintain Jewish majority in Palestine by transferring West Bank Palestinians to Jordan. 

Similarly, some in Israel are flirting openly with the idea of transferring Gaza's Palestinians to the Sinai in Egypt.

With Tel Aviv receiving a Western green light to invade Palestinian cities and kill and arrest whomever it considers as a threat to its national security, Israel may intensify the plans to place Egypt and Jordan under a fait accompli, and implement a slogan of the Israeli right that Jordan is the “alternative homeland for the Palestinians.” 

Growing tensions in the West Bank raise concerns about the Palestinian Authority's potential collapse due to corruption and aging leadership. Recent events highlight the Authority's ineffectiveness, with leaders avoiding media appearances to evade anger from Palestinians and Arabs. Israeli right-wing circles view the "Palestinian option" as a failed solution to governing Palestinians and suppressing anti-occupation movements.

The weakness of the Palestinian Authority, coupled with the uncertainty around Mahmoud Abbas's succession, has the potential to further divide the Fatah movement. This internal fragmentation within Fatah is mirrored in the Palestinian diaspora, as demonstrated by recent conflicts in the Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp in Lebanon, where Hamas has emerged as a mediator between opposing factions, highlighting Fatah's weakening influence.

There is renewed discussion about Jordan potentially playing a role in the West Bank, with scenarios involving a confederation where Jordan takes on security, protection, and political responsibilities for Palestinian territories. While Jordan officially rejects these scenarios, the rapidly changing dynamics in the Middle East and Israeli supporters of displacement could force Amman's hand.

A research paper from the Center for Politics and Society in Jordan echoes these concerns: that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could exploit political sympathy to execute a preconceived agenda of displacing Palestinians in Gaza and potentially the West Bank, drawing a parallel with a similar scenario involving Palestinians in the Egyptian Sinai as a model for future actions.

What are Jordan's options?

Jordan has limited options and even less leverage. The Jordanian king has been mobilising international support to stop the war on Gaza, engaging Britain, Italy, Germany and France. A four-way summit with Biden scheduled in Amman could have given him a platform to state Amman's red lines, but it was cancelled due to the violent bombing of the Baptist Hospital in Gaza.

Some in Jordan are arguing that the country could use as leverage its current economic integration projects with Israel, such as the gas agreement, water projects, and solar energy. Some want to see them scrapped, arguing that they create strategic dependence on Tel Aviv in sensitive sectors and further weaken Jordan’s role in the region without reaching an absolute peace agreement.

Criticism of the Wadi Araba Peace Agreement between Israel and Jordan, which was signed in 1994, have also intensified because it failed to oblige Israel to find a solution to the issue of Palestinian refugees, including in Jordan. 

Anxiety and anger prevail among Jordanians as massive demonstrations have taken place in support of the Palestinians, and Jordanians are wondering what the coming days will hold for their country.

There is widespread sympathy for the Palestinians, and at the same time, there is concern about the effects of the war on the Jordanian economy, which is still suffering from the repercussions of repeated lockdowns during the pandemic in addition to the repercussions of the Russian war on Ukraine.

This time, they believe, the threat is existential to the entire entity of the Jordanian state.