As Israel expands war and economic strain deepen, Syrians brace for uncertainty

Seven people died in Syria on 8 October after three missiles were launched from the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, striking a residential and commercial building in the bustling Mezzeh neighbourhood of Damascus. 

Inside the 14-story building that was destroyed, a group of workers diligently repaired the lower floors. It has been two weeks since the attack, and just outside the building, life in the capital continues almost uninterrupted. 

Another alleged Israeli airstrike occurred on 21 October in the Mezzeh neighbourhood, targetting a car and killing two people. 

To many Syrians in and around Damascus, the attacks are a background hum: ever-present, yet no longer the central focus of daily life. 

After 13 years of conflict, war has become "the grim norm," Wael Saeed, a local resident, told The New Arab. 

"The bombings briefly stirred reactions on social media, but the nation's attention is fixed on the relentless fight for daily survival," he said. 

For ordinary Syrians, life is becoming increasingly difficult. The growing sense of "hopelessness," as Saeed put it, stems from the inability to prepare for the challenges ahead.

"Escape routes have become limited. The only viable option is through Damascus International Airport, with destinations primarily in the Gulf, though securing a tourist visa, apart from the UAE, is nearly impossible for most," he added. 

Alternatively, fleeing through Jordan's land crossings has become a costly endeavour. What once cost $200 now ranges from $500 to $800, with travellers enduring over ten hours of waiting at the border. 

"I don't even have enough money for my daily needs, let alone to save and prepare for another war, or to plan for an escape," Tarek Abdullah, a government employee, told TNA. 

Meanwhile, a woman who survived the siege of Eastern Ghouta reflects on her experiences, noting that stockpiling supplies was not helpful. 

"During the siege, people lost their homes in an instant. You can store things, but you might have to leave everything behind at any moment," she said. "That's why I'm not taking any precautions now. Like many Syrians, all I can do is wait and watch, hoping for some semblance of stability." 

The wait, however, is filled with anxiety and uncertainty as Syria teeters between survival and further collapse. 

Several Syrians who spoke to TNA are also worried about the war's impact on fuel supplies, which could exacerbate the already dire economic challenges in a country where the Consumer Price Index recorded an annual inflation rate of 120.4 percent in April, according to the Syrian Center for Policy Research (SCPR). 

Lebanese petrol, once readily available on the streets of Damascus, is now sold in plastic containers at sharply increased prices. The cost has surged from 17,000 Syrian pounds ($1.15) per litre to nearly 21,000 pounds ($1.42). 

Vendors blame this spike on the growing instability in Lebanon, which has forced them to take longer, more expensive smuggling routes to get fuel into Syria. 

"We're terrified that the supply will dry up," said one local buyer. "This fuel is the only way we can keep moving since local gasoline is almost impossible to find [...] every two weeks, we get just 25 litres, which lasts barely for a few days." 

With winter approaching, concerns over rising fuel prices are mounting. Locals report that gas cylinders, once priced at 350,000 Syrian pounds ($23.8), have now surged to 600,000 ($40.8) or more. 

No Syrian response

Although Israel did not claim responsibility for the 8 October and 21 October attacks, it has acknowledged conducting hundreds of raids on Hezbollah targets in Syria. 

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reports that, as of August 2024, at least 104 strikes have killed approximately 283 people, including 22 civilians. The targets have included weapons depots, vehicles, and facilities associated with Iran-backed groups. 

Israel has long taken advantage of Syria's turmoil since the civil war began in 2011, regularly launching air strikes against Iranian and Hezbollah targets. Even as the fighting has died down, Syria's fractured control still allows Israel to conduct such operations. The frequency of these attacks has increased alongside Israel's military campaign in Gaza.

Since Israel's war on Gaza began last October, Syria, a close ally of Iran and a member of the "axis of resistance", has remained notably quiet despite the escalating regional conflict. 

In the same period, Israel has carried out more than 220 attacks on Syrian territory, including air strikes and artillery fire, according to data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED).

As Israel expanded its operations in late September into Lebanon and Yemen and resistance groups from Iraq joined the conflict, Syria remained largely restrained, issuing condemnations but without significant military response.

Raed al-Masri, a professor of political thought and international relations, believes that Syria is currently unable to respond to Israel's repeated strikes because of its weakened military infrastructure. 

"Strangled by sanctions and international isolation, Damascus is grappling with its own hardships," he told TNA. "Syria's only realistic option for bolstering its defences against Israeli attacks is receiving Russia's permission to activate the S-300 and S-400 missile systems already stationed on Syrian soil."

But he notes that Russia has invested heavily in the Syrian conflict over the past decade and is now "pushing Syria to step back from regional entanglements."

"Regional dynamics have also shifted, leaving Iran and Hezbollah increasingly isolated to face their own challenges," he added. "Syria may be gradually distancing itself from its previous alignment with Iran and the resistance movements, possibly recalibrating its regional alliances."

'A time to rebuild'

Syria is now more reliant on Gulf stakeholders to ease the weight of the sanctions that have long crippled its economy. 

"Syria is turning a new page, with the hope of Arab nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE playing a crucial role in its recovery," he said. "If Syria can demonstrate diplomatic flexibility and navigate the complex political landscape, it could open the door to broader Arab involvement in its recovery from the current crisis."

A source close to the Syrian government, who wished to remain anonymous out of security concerns, told TNA that Syria, "despite all challenges" has remained a steadfast supporter of regional resistance movements, including groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Palestine, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon, but now is "a time to rebuild."

"Syria is not a resistance movement itself, but a sovereign state that supports resistance," the source explained. "Our priority is to heal our wounds, rebuild the military, and regain sovereignty over all our lands. Then we can turn to our larger goal: reclaiming the Golan Heights."

He rejected allegations that Syria has taken a passive stance against Israel, calling such claims "the work of opposition groups seeking to sow discord." 

The source also downplayed the likelihood of the UAE mediating between Syria and Israel, as Damascus remains firm in its demand for the return of the occupied Golan, a condition Israel has consistently refused in past peace negotiations.

This article is published in collaboration with Egab.