Could Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar's death accelerate Gaza ceasefire efforts?

The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar on Wednesday raised many questions on the future of Israel's war on Gaza, including whether ceasefire efforts will be revived.

Sinwar, 62, was considered one of the chief architects of the 7 October attack on Israel, in which some 1,200 people were killed and around 250 people were taken captive by Hamas and allied groups. 

Sinwar's killing provides Israel with a possible off-ramp from the war, however, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's words have signalled its continuation.

"To the people of Gaza, I have a simple message - this war can end tomorrow. It can end if Hamas lays down its arms and returns our hostages," Israeli Netanyahu said in a post on X on Thursday, reiterating previous demands that Hamas surrender.

The Israeli leader has enjoyed a bounce in approval ratings since September, when a number of large-scale attacks were carried out in Lebanon, including the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The scandal-stricken premier could end the war on a high, however, he has so far resisted a ceasefire deal to secure the Israeli captives' release.

Israeli officials have also doubled down on continuing the war, despite military force having only secured the release of a few captives. Many captives have also been killed by Israeli forces in their attacks on Gaza.

"Historic liquidation in Rafah  We must continue with all our strength - until the absolute victory!" wrote Israel's far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. The minister has been one of the most vocal opponents of a ceasefire, having previously threatened to pull out of government if a deal was reached.

Opposition figure and former war cabinet member Benny Gantz — widely considered in the West as an Israeli 'moderate' — argued for a continued war and the occupation of Gaza.

"The circle is closed, but the mission is not over. The IDF will continue to operate in the Gaza Strip for years to come, and now the series of achievements and the elimination of Sinwar must be taken advantage of to bring about the return of the abductees and the replacement of Hamas' rule," Gantz said on X.  

In Washington, however, officials issued statements raising hopes that Tel Aviv may be redirected towards the negotiations table.

US President Joe Biden congratulated Israel on Sinwar's killing while saying that its leaders should "move on" to end the war.

Vice President and Democratic Party presidential candidate Kamala Harris echoed the president's sentiment, as did US defence chief Lloyd Austin.

But the US has so far appeared unable or unwilling to exert its influence over Israel to end the onslaught, which has killed over 42,000 Palestinians and wounded close to 100,000.

The Netanyahu coalition has insisted on achieving a number of stated aims, which include returning the remaining Israeli captives and ensuring that Hamas is no longer in charge of Gaza.

"Since the tragic events of October 7, Israeli leaders vowed to eliminate Sinwar, the man who was in charge of Hamas’s vicious attack against Israel. Today, it seems that this goal was achieved, as the IDF was able to kill Sinwar in the Gaza Strip," says former Israeli Defense Intelligence (IDI) official and current non-fellow resident at the Atlantic Council, Danny Citrinowicz.

"But, as important as this event is, it won’t solve Israel’s strategic problems if the current policy of the Israeli government does not change. It is safe to say that even after Sinwar, the Hamas organization will not collapse. Thus the war will continue, with no political solution on the horizon."

Ethnic cleansing, genocide

Adding to the chasm between Israeli and American ideas on the matter is the insistence of some Israeli ministers, as well as parts of the Israeli public, that Gaza be ethnically cleansed and settled.

On Wednesday, at least ten lawmakers — including a cabinet minister — from Netanyahu's Likud Party announced they would be attending a conference entitled "Preparing to Resettle Gaza" organised by the Nachala Settlement Movement.

There is also the charge that the war is in fact being prosecuted with genocidal intent — an accusation that Israel is standing trial for at the World Court.

"Those who are suggesting that this will be a 'mission accomplished' moment that will somehow lead us to a ceasefire haven't been paying attention... Mr Netanyahu isn’t at war with Yahya Sinwar or Hamas. Israel is at war with the Palestinian people," former Israeli government advisor Daniel Levy said on Al-Jazeera on Thursday.

Where does Hamas go from here?

Hamas, meanwhile, has struck a defiant tone and reiterated their terms for a captive exchange deal.

"We mourn the great leader, the martyred brother, Yahya Sinwar, Abu Ibrahim," Qatar-based Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya said in a recorded video statement on Thursday.

The hostages "will not return... unless the aggression against our people in Gaza stops, there is a complete withdrawal from it, and our heroic prisoners are released from the occupation's prisons," he added.

It also remains to be seen who will replace Sinwar, who was considered to be on the more hard-line wing of Hamas.

"As Amos Yadlin, a former IDF intelligence chief, pointed out, every leader has a successor," said Masoud Mostajabi, deputy director of the Atlantic Council's Iraq Initiative.

"The pressing question now is whether the new leadership, within Gaza’s deeply entrenched insurgency, will be willing to de-escalate and negotiate—and if there is anyone on the other side willing to reach out with an olive branch."