'Surrender or starve': What are Israel's plans for north Gaza?

Residents of northern Gaza's Jabalia refugee camp, along with those in the nearby towns of Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun, were urgently ordered to evacuate on 6 October as Israel launched a new ground operation in the enclave’s northern region.

The Israeli military then opened two routes for evacuation to southern Gaza after designating these northern areas as dangerous combat zones.

Eyewitnesses told The New Arab that the ground incursion that followed included relentless aerial and artillery bombardments, as well as heavy gunfire, resulting in hundreds of Palestinian fatalities and numerous injuries.

Hospitals in the area were ordered to evacuate, but medical staff refused, knowing that abandoning the wounded would amount to “a death sentence,” as one doctor described it.

As Israeli tanks and military operations expanded across multiple fronts in northern Gaza on 12 October, the army tightened its siege, effectively severing these regions from Gaza City through military blockades and road closures.

Conditions in these areas have become dire, with large segments of the population displaced. Water desalination plants and bakeries are no longer operational, returning the northern region to the hardships of the early days of the war. 

Residents in northern Gaza that The New Arab spoke to said that Israel has resumed a policy of starvation, along with intensive bombardment.

These developments come in the wake of multiple reports from Israeli sources about implementing the so-called Generals' Plan, formulated by former Israeli National Security Council head Giora Eiland. 

The plan calls for forcing Palestinian residents north of Wadi Gaza to evacuate to the south within a few weeks, tightening the siege to push Palestinian fighters to surrender or face starvation.

Analysts that The New Arab spoke to confirm that Israeli actions in northern Gaza are a prelude to the “full implementation of this plan,” involving the division of the region into two separate zones as an initial step to facilitate the depopulation of the area.

According to leaked classified Israeli documents, the ultimate strategic objective had been to expel all Gaza residents to Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, but Palestinian resilience, coupled with Egypt's firm stance against such a transfer, thwarted that effort. Israel, however, has not abandoned its primary goal; it has simply scaled back to focus on depopulating the north for now.

The success, from Israel’s perspective, of any evacuation hinges on whether Palestinians will comply with demands to leave their homes and if the international community, particularly the US, accepts the idea of population transfer and land appropriation for Israel's benefit.

Ismat Mansour, an expert on Israeli affairs, describes the ongoing events in the north as the "literal execution of the Generals' Plan," whose overarching goal is the depopulation of northern Gaza in what is seen as the worst-case scenario for Palestinians.

"The occupation aims for total evacuation leading to the establishment of settlements, as pushed by the ruling right-wing faction, or partial evacuation by reducing the number of residents in the north," he said. "It seeks to establish a secure environment free from militants.”

The plan aims to resettle Palestinians in less densely populated areas and redesign the region under a governance model aligned with Israel, he added.

Despite Israel's assertions that the military campaign in northern Gaza is unrelated to the Generals' Plan, Mansour contends that "Israeli denial is irrelevant in the face of the ongoing evacuation and displacement measures". 

Despite the entry of some aid trucks into northern Gaza following US pressure after the siege had been tightened, “Palestinians remain convinced that the overarching aim is the evacuation and military control of the northern part of the Strip,” the analyst told The New Arab.

Reshaping Gaza into another West Bank

According to political analyst and international relations researcher Talal Abu Rokba, Israel is actively working to reconfigure Gaza geographically by transforming it into disconnected enclaves similar to the occupied West Bank, making it easier to control.

He notes that after the blow it suffered on 7 October, Israel is determined to take full security control of Gaza, “leaving no room for any other authority”.

“Despite demands for Palestinians to evacuate to the south under intense military pressure that has rendered life unlivable in northern Gaza, mass exodus through the so-called ‘safe corridor’ on Salah al-Din Road has not materialised. Instead, displacement has remained partial, with residents seeking safer locations within the north rather than moving en masse to the south,” Abu Rokba said.

Regarding the obstacles Israel faces in achieving its objectives of evacuating the north and establishing direct military control, the political analyst identifies three primary challenges.

"The first is the Palestinian people's widespread refusal to leave, with many residents choosing to stay in the north despite the near-certain threat to their lives," he explained.

"The second challenge is the international stance, particularly that of the United States, which opposes any large-scale forced displacement of the population or the annexation of territory for Israel, given that the vision has been to solidify the Palestinian state in Gaza and even expand it."

However, the most critical challenge, according to Abu Rokba, lies in the persistence of Palestinian armed resistance in any area occupied by Israel. 

"The Israeli military has struggled to secure the surrounding settlements in recent years. How will it secure newly occupied land while displacing its inhabitants?"

In a similar vein, Israeli and regional affairs researcher Ahmad Fayad asserts that Israel began the process of evacuating the north and succeeded in forcing more than two-thirds of its residents to move south even before announcing the plan in September. 

Fayad suggested that the Israeli military has additional plans and scenarios that could be even more severe than the current strategy and is “waiting for the right moment” to implement them.

“Israel seeks to mitigate any international political and legal pressures by urging the population to evacuate southward, thereby framing those who remain as combatants, which would then justify military action against them,” he told The New Arab.

“The Palestinians’ refusal to comply this time is forcing the military to reassess the mechanisms for implementing the evacuation plan, which has broad support within Israel.”

Fayad notes that the current military operation is a test run to gauge Palestinian responsiveness to Israel's advances and to explore alternative strategies without abandoning the idea of depopulating the north. 

"In Israel's view, Hamas is reorganising its civilian administration and exerting control over the distribution of aid in various ways, which Israel finds unacceptable. It is committed to pursuing its objectives until all forms of governance are neutralised, alongside reducing Hamas’s military strength," he added.

Fayad underscored that the geographical and demographic changes underway in northern Gaza will have a direct impact on any resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as Israel has historically transformed temporary measures into permanent facts on the ground.

However, he argues that simply achieving military control over the north or displacing some of its residents will not resolve the conflict in Israel's favour. 

"The essence of the struggle lies in the Palestinians’ resilience on their land. If they succeed in standing their ground, they will thwart all Israeli plans to eliminate their cause," he explained.

This article is published in collaboration with Egab.