Could Iran, Hezbollah refrain from Israel strike if Gaza ceasefire deal secured?

Iran could be reconsidering a long-expected attack on Israel in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, US sources have said amid reports that the Lebanese group Hezbollah could strike Israel independently of Iran.

US officials have told Politico that the Biden administration has been reaching out to Iran through Middle Eastern allies to prevent it from attacking Israel.

It has sent messages to Iran saying that no Iranian citizens were killed in the attack on Haniyeh and that the bomb which killed him was planted in the guesthouse he was staying in a covert Israeli operation which didn’t target anyone else.

Iran has said that Haniyeh was killed in a rocket attack and that his killing was a violation of its sovereignty and has vowed to retaliate.

The US officials said they still expected some Iranian retaliation for the killing of Haniyeh but added that Iran had "recalibrated" and that they did not expect an Iranian attack on Israel soon.

Iranian opposition website Iran International  reported on Wednesday that Iran’s recently elected president Masoud Pezeshkian may have asked Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to not attack Israel, saying that it could have devastating effects on the Iranian economy and infrastructure.

It added that Khamenei had "remained noncommittal" during his meeting with Pezeshkian, refusing to give assurances that he wouldn’t order an attack on Israel.

The US has vowed to defend Israel in the event of an attack, sending fighter jets and ships to the region in anticipation.

Last April, Israel launched missiles and drones at Iran following the Israeli bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus. The attack had a limited impact however, with only one casualty and little damage to Israeli infrastructure.

Could Hezbollah act independently?

On Wednesday, CNN cited two US military officials as saying that the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah may strike Israel without coordinating with Iran.

One of the sources claimed that Hezbollah was planning to strike Israel in the coming days.

The doubts over an Iranian response come as talks on a ceasefire in Gaza continue. While the talks have long been stalled and Israel’s assassination of Haniyeh, who played a key role in the negotiations, cast further doubt on them, US officials say progress is possible.

According to Politico, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has long refused to end Israel’s brutal war on Gaza, is now more receptive to moving forward with negotiations after pressure from the Israeli security establishment.

Progress on a ceasefire deal is likely to further lower the chances of Iran attacking Israel.

The war on Gaza has been going on for over 10 months, with nearly 40,000 Palestinians killed and at least 90,000 injured. The territory has been utterly devastated by the indiscriminate Israeli assault.