What's driving Turkey's military escalation in Iraqi Kurdistan?

A recent intensification of Turkish airstrikes in the Iraqi Kurdistan region has fuelled growing concerns about Ankara’s broader geopolitical ambitions in northern Iraq.

While Turkey has long targeted Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) militants in the region, reports from local officials indicate a disturbing new pattern of mounting civilian deaths.

Last week alone, Kurdish officials confirmed that six civilians were killed in indiscriminate airstrikes. The latest tragedy occurred on Thursday when a Turkish drone hit a civilian vehicle in the Zalan sub-district, killing three people, including a child, on their way to a medical appointment.

Othman Anwar, acting mayor of Sulaimaniyah’s Sharbazher district, expressed outrage at the growing civilian death toll. "There are no justifications for targeting civilians," he told The New Arab.

The recent drone strike on a civilian vehicle adds to a mounting body of evidence that Turkey's strikes - ostensibly aimed at neutralising the PKK - are affecting far more than militant targets.

Iraq and Turkey last month signed a joint Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) focused on military, security, and counter-terrorism cooperation following years of tensions over Turkey's military actions against the PKK, which has long operated from bases in northern Iraq.

The PKK, which was formed in the late 1970s, seeks Kurdish autonomy in Turkey and is designated as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the US, the UK, and the EU.  

Critics have pointed out the contradictions of Turkey’s foreign policy, which condemns civilian suffering caused by Israel in Gaza while continuing to target civilians in Iraqi Kurdistan.

These actions, many argue, constitute a war crime under international law, as they violate the principles of protecting non-combatants during military operations.

While Turkey continues to point to the PKK’s presence as a pretext, many regional observers argue that Ankara’s actions are part of a broader strategy to reshape the political landscape in northern Iraq.

"The pretext is the PKK, but teenagers between 12 and 13 were among the casualties this week. A child on his way to the hospital was martyred. Targeting civilians is unjustifiable," Ali Hama Salih, head of the National Stance Movement, told TNA.

Turkey's geopolitical rivalry with Iran

Turkey's intensification of airstrikes cannot be separated from its geopolitical rivalry with Iran, which has steadily expanded its influence in northern Iraq, particularly in Kirkuk and Sulaimaniyah. Tehran's growing presence presents a direct challenge to Turkey's regional ambitions and strategic objectives.

Kirkuk, in particular, has become a flashpoint for competing interests. Analysts say Turkey’s increased military activity in the region is, in part, a reaction to Iran’s growing power.

Salam Abdul Karim, a professor of Kurdish political affairs, says Turkey’s airstrikes reflect a shift towards a more aggressive, security-first policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

"Turkey views the PKK’s presence in Iraqi Kurdistan as a national security threat, prompting aggressive military actions aimed at extending its regional influence - particularly against Iran," he explained to TNA.

“Turkey does not hesitate to launch drone airstrikes to target anyone suspected to be PKK militants and anywhere in the Kurdistan region based on ground information sources they get regardless of whether the information is correct or incorrect,” Abdul Karim added.

He also pointed out that Turkey’s air campaign is not just about military objectives. "By escalating airstrikes, Turkey is asserting dominance in a region where it feels increasingly threatened by Iran’s growing presence," he said, noting that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and political factions within Iraq have failed to respond adequately to Turkey’s provocations.

Competing interests in the region

The rivalry between Turkey and Iran extends beyond military action. Political developments within the Kurdistan Region and Iraq reflect this competition for influence.

Last month, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), closely aligned with Iran, succeeded in electing Rebwar Taha as Kirkuk’s governor, while Mohammed Ibrahim al-Hafidh of the Arab Qiyada Alliance was nominated as chief of the Kirkuk Provincial Council.

The Iraqi Turkmen Front, which has strong ties to Turkey, along with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) - a rival Kurdish party to the PUK - boycotted the session in Baghdad where these power-sharing posts were decided.

The KDP, historically aligned with Turkey, has found itself at odds with the PUK, which enjoys close ties with Iran and the Iran-backed Shia ruling coalition in Baghdad.

This political landscape, coupled with ongoing Turkish military action, points to a broader strategy of containment. Masud Abdul Khaliq, a Kurdish political observer, says Turkey's military presence is about much more than fighting the PKK.

"Turkey has been pursuing a policy of containment towards Iraq, especially the Kurdistan region," he said.

Turkey's containment strategy has been effective, reducing the influence of Iran, Iraq, the US, and the EU in the region.

"The Turkish army is currently stationed just 27 kilometres from Mosul," Abdul Khaliq noted, underscoring Turkey’s physical proximity to key Iraqi territories.

Potential consequences

Turkey’s military moves have not been without controversy. In late August, the Iraqi army shot down a Turkish drone over Kirkuk, a rare act of defiance that raised questions about Turkey's adherence to existing agreements with Iraq.

Some Iraqi observers suggest that either the Iraqi army was unaware of the terms of the MoU with Turkey, or that Ankara had overstepped its boundaries, prompting the use of air defences.

Looking ahead, Abdul Khaliq warns of a grim outcome if Turkey continues its current trajectory.

"I believe this Turkish policy will eventually result in the elimination of the Kurdistan region as an entity," he said. He speculated that Turkey’s endgame could involve a scenario where Iraqi forces, possibly backed by Iran’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), replace Turkish military positions - effectively shifting control of key areas.

The lack of an international response to Turkey’s intensified campaign has only compounded the problem. Despite clear evidence of civilian casualties, the global community has remained largely silent, prompting accusations of double standards.

"Turkey has realised that there is no cost attached to undermining Iraq’s sovereignty," a Western observer remarked, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"While Ankara condemns the killing of innocents in Gaza, Turkish authorities continue to target civilians in the Kurdistan region without any hesitation."

Turkey’s actions in northern Iraq, driven by its rivalry with Iran and its broader ambitions in the region, are creating instability that could have far-reaching consequences.

As the international community remains silent and Iraq struggles to assert its sovereignty, the Kurdistan region remains at the heart of a geopolitical power struggle that shows no signs of abating.

Dana Taib Menmy is The New Arab's Iraq Correspondent, writing on issues of politics, society, human rights, security, and minorities.

Follow him on Twitter: @danataibmenmy