Can Lebanon's army replace Hezbollah along the southern border with Israel?

Western powers want cash-strapped Lebanon to beef up its army presence in the south and replace Hezbollah fighters that are edging closer to war with Israel, but retired Lebanese generals and analysts say that, even with Western aid on offer, it's an uphill battle amid years of economic ruin and the Shia armed group's dominance in the area. 

Lebanon's caretaker government this month approved a plan to recruit 1,500 soldiers and deploy them to the country's war-torn southern border, part of a more ambitious plan to eventually send 6,000 troops to quell cross-border hostilities with Israel that threaten to tip the region into a broader and more explosive war.

The Lebanon-Israel border has been the site of low-simmering conflict ever since Israel's genocidal war on Gaza. The near-daily exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah has destroyed homes, burned large tracts of agricultural land, and dispersed tens of thousands of people on both sides. 

On Sunday, 25 August, tensions reached new heights after Israel pounded southern Lebanon with unusually heavy airstrikes and Hezbollah launched a barrage of missiles at Israeli security targets. The armed group's attack was seen as retaliation for Israel's assassination of a top Hezbollah commander on July 30 in Beirut's suburb. 

To walk Lebanon and Israel away from the brink of a more destructive war, Western powers want Beirut to expand its army presence in the south, eventually replacing Hezbollah fighters in positions along the border. To this end, US envoy Amos Hochstein travelled to Beirut earlier this month. 

France has said it would assist Lebanon's army with equipment, training, and financial support if it commits to deploying more troops to the south, though it hasn't provided specific figures. 

US and European diplomats have also warned Hezbollah that they cannot halt Israel from invading Lebanon, should Israeli leaders decide to.

'Not feasible'

In exchange for their support, Western officials want Lebanon to meet its obligations under UN Resolution 1701, a ceasefire that ended the last major confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. The resolution stipulates that Lebanon's army deploy 15,000 soldiers south of the Litani river to replace Hezbollah fighters. 

Neither Israel, Lebanon, nor Hezbollah have lived up to the 2006 agreement. Israel regularly violates Lebanese airspace and maintains a naval blockade, while Lebanon's army currently only has about 6,000 forces in the south. Iran-backed Hezbollah meanwhile remains the country's best equipped fighting force, with command centres and weapons caches scattered across the south and beyond the reach of Lebanon's army or UN peacekeeping forces.

Though Resolution 1701 technically remains in place, an unwritten code of conduct between Lebanon's army and Hezbollah has effectively governed southern Lebanon for the past 18 years, said political analyst Nizar Reza. The two sides essentially stick to agreed areas for conducting patrols and avoid conflict with one another, said Reza.

As far as non-state actors go, Hezbollah is one of the most heavily armed groups in the world. Its leader Hassan Nasrallah said in 2021 the group boasts 100,000 fighters, though analysts have put the figure at about half that. Diplomats and analysts warn that an all-out war between the better armed Hezbollah of today and Israel would be catastrophic for both sides.

In order to fill a gap left by Hezbollah, Lebanon's army would need a huge level of funding and assistance, much more than it currently gets, said retired Lebanese Army Brigadier General Saeed Qazah.

"The current need is to increase the number of Lebanese army personnel to enhance its forces in the south. But this requires increasing equipment, weapons and logistics—all of which requires a substantial level of funding that's not available in the state treasury," said Qazah.

Lebanon's military is heavily dependent on foreign aid. It receives about US$100 million per year from the US for vehicles, weapons and training, along with additional support from France. Last year, the US began topping up the wages of Lebanese soldiers and police officers who were quitting after their salaries were slashed. Lebanon has been in the grip of a bruising economic crisis since 2019 amid mounting debt and a hard currency crunch.

Replacing Hezbollah fighters requires more than just money. In southern border towns, Hezbollah members typically hail from the villages they protect. That makes removing them tricky. "It's not possible to force them to leave their villages, but the area can be cleared of weapons and ammunition, especially direct-fire weapons such as anti-tank missiles," said Qazah.

For political analyst Faisal Abdel Sater, it's an unlikely task.

"The state hasn't been responsible for securing and protecting the borders, especially when it comes to Israel. Can this actually change so that the army is the primary defender against Israel? At the moment, that's not feasible," said Sater, an analyst close to Hezbollah.

Still, former army generals say that, eventually, Lebanon has to take control of the south.

Retired Brigadier General Khaled Hamadeh points out that, even during Lebanon's civil war in 1975, the militias that supported the army were still under the army's supervision, unlike with Hezbollah today.  "It is inconceivable for any weapons to be in the hands of civilians without being under the control of the state," said Hamadeh. 

This piece is published in collaboration with Egab.