Are Gaza ceasefire talks doomed after Israel killed Ismail Haniyeh and struck Beirut?

Negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza have been plunged into uncertainty following the latest developments in the wider conflict after Israel assassinated top militant leaders in Lebanon and Iran.

A Tuesday airstrike on Haret Hreik, a southern suburb of Beirut, targeted what Israeli media have said is "Hezbollah’s second man," Fouad Shukr. The Lebanese Shia militant group was late to confirm if he is dead or alive though suggested his body may be under the rubble, while Israel said it has confirmation of his demise.

Hours later and into Wednesday, an attack killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and his bodyguard. 

Nearly 10 months into Israel’s war on Gaza, the attacks might bring the region closer to an all-out conflagration, although some analysts say this is still unlikely despite the magnitude of the escalation.

Mediators Qatar, Egypt and the US have tried to reach a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas to end the Gaza war and achieve a prisoner-captive swap deal. Today, this deal seems further than ever.

What is the point of negotiations?

Qatar has questioned the viability of any talks amid Israel’s escalation but Western officials were quick to engage with Doha on Wednesday to keep the negotiations on track. 

"Political assassinations and continued targeting of civilians in Gaza, while talks continue, leads us to ask, how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on other side?" Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani wrote on X.

"Peace needs serious partners & a global stance against the disregard for human life."

Egypt likewise has sounded scepticism over Israel’s latest actions, saying this escalation indicated a lack of political will from Israel for de-escalation.

The foreign ministry in a statement said this escalation and the lack of progress in the ceasefire talks was only complicating the situation.

The only truce that has happened so far was in November which saw calm in Gaza for about a week and Hamas and Israel swapped captives for Palestinian prisoners.

Since then, mediators have repeatedly failed to reach a breakthrough.

The latest round of talks last week collapsed after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu came with more demands. Analysts believe the Israeli escalation and Netanyahu stalling the talks is all deliberate, as he tries to appease his far-right coalition and the Israeli public amid discontent and deep internal divisions.

Netanyahu – who could face arrest warrants by the International Criminal Court over alleged war crimes in Gaza – is also trying to exploit political turbulence in Washington, analysts believe.

This month, he was in the US, addressing Congress and seeking to guarantee continued support from his number one ally amid tense relations with President Joe Biden over the Gaza offensive and ceasefire talks.

Unprovoked attack, Iran has to retaliate

Iranian-American Academic and author Vali Nasr tells The New Arab that the killing of Haniyeh was on a different level to the assassination near Beirut, and that Iran will have to respond to the attack which happened on its soil.

"The killing of Haniyeh undid the ceasefire talks," Nasr said, describing the timing of the Hamas leader’s killing as "weird" in light of the negotiations' crucial stages.

"This makes it very difficult for Hamas to arrive at an agreement now, it’s not the right environment and it will be seen as weakness on its side."

Nasr says unlike the strikes near Beirut which targeted Hezbollah’s Shukr, the attack in Tehran which killed Haniyeh was "unprovoked."

The New Arab asked Nasr whether he really believes Hezbollah was behind the strike that killed 12 youngsters in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, a deadly incident Israel had used as a pretext to attack Haret Hreik on Tuesday.

Hezbollah completely denies being behind the Golan massacre.

"I don’t know, but let’s take it at face value – Israel can argue that its attack on Beirut was a retaliation, that it did not throw the first punch and that it was Hezbollah’s fault. In Tehran that was not the case, Haniyeh’s assassination was unprovoked," he says.

Nasr believes Israel not only doesn’t want a ceasefire in Gaza but is seeking to escalate.

"The killing of Haniyeh, both symbolically in Tehran and during the inauguration of a new president, which is a very important occasion in Iran, signalled Israel was ready to expand the war.

"Israel made a decision at this point to escalate, almost like they’re provoking Iran to retaliate" which it will, he added.

Unlike Israel, Nasr says the US is the one pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza and wants the war to be over.

"The US sees the Gaza war as a nuisance, a headache, and does not want a larger war. Their objectives won’t change."

When asked if he thought this would remain the case with Donald Trump in office, Nasr says "more so."

What now?

The Haret Hreik and Tehran strikes are the most major attacks to target Hezbollah and Hamas since October 7, when the Gaza offensive began.

A response from the "Axis of Resistance" – a term given to Iran and its allies – is inevitable. Ceasefire talks will most likely not resume before that happens and the dust settles on the escalation equation.

Retaliating to Shukr’s possible death will keep all eyes on Lebanon’s already ignited front with Israel. Even if Shukr turns out to be alive, an attack on Beirut’s southern suburbs has crossed Hezbollah’s red lines.

Hezbollah, the strongest of all Iran-backed militant groups with a massive rocket arsenal, had warned Israel of attacking in or around Beirut. The only other time Israel conducted an airstrike in the area was in January when it killed Hamas senior, Saleh al-Arouri.

Hezbollah had tied an end to hostilities with Israel to a ceasefire in Gaza, but Tel Aviv had made clear that a truce in Gaza does not necessarily mean the Israeli military would halt attacks on Lebanon.

In parallel with ceasefire talks in Gaza, Western-led efforts spearheaded by the US and France are trying to find a settlement between Lebanon and Israel. As well as ending the border fighting, it could see the official demarcation of the enemy states' land boundary.

Some analysts believe any deal will be preceded by escalation – the level of which will only become clearer in the coming days.