Will the Turkey-Somalia defence deal fuel Red Sea tensions?

On 21 February the Somali government ratified a landmark defence pact that Mogadishu signed with Turkey earlier in the month.

The agreement was the culmination of long-term cooperation between the two countries through which Somalia has become a key conduit of Turkish influence in the Horn of Africa.

The region has in recent months become the scene of geopolitical and security tensions that observers warn are on the verge of exploding.

Economic defence pact

Although the text of the Framework Agreement for Defence and Economic Cooperation has not been officially released yet, many sources indicate that it involves Turkey training and equipping Somali naval forces and developing their capabilities.

The agreement also reportedly gives Ankara the authority to guarantee the protection of Somalia's 3,333 km coastline and its maritime borders from any threat.

The 10-year agreement also stipulates that Turkey will help Somalia benefit from its marine resources.

"The agreement was the culmination of long-term cooperation between the two countries through which Somalia has become a key conduit of Turkish influence in the Horn of Africa"

In return, Ankara will receive 30% of the revenues from Somalia's exclusive economic zone and the agreement is expected to pave the way for Turkish companies to invest in areas such as gas and oil exploration and tourism.

Tunç Demirtaş, an Assistant Professor of International Relations at Mersin University, told The New Arab that the security components of the deal will aid with Somalia’s economic growth.

One such area includes illegal and irregular fishing off the coast, as well as piracy, which costs the Somali economy at least $500 million annually.

Demirtaş explained to TNA that Somalia’s naval forces and coast guard, which Turkey will support in building, will have the ability to be a deterrent against security and economic threats in Somalia. 

A multidimensional Turkish presence

Following the ratification of the agreement, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud stated that Turkey is “the only country that has expressed its willingness to help Somalia protect its territorial waters, exploit its resources, and rehabilitate the Somali navy”.

Adam Hussein, a senior politics advisor in the Somali Ministry of Interior, told TNA that Somali motivations for the deal relate to Turkey’s proven ability to implement its pledges and its close relationship with Mogadishu, which Ankara is “serious about its partnership with”.

The historic visit to Somalia of then-Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in 2011 represented a cornerstone in relations between the two countries, which have since witnessed steady growth and seen Ankara become an indispensable partner.

According to the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ankara has provided more than $1 billion in aid to Somalia since 2011 for a variety of projects in the health and education sectors, municipal services, and infrastructure projects.

Turkish companies are also active in Somalia and manage the seaport and international airport of the Somali capital.

In the security field, Mogadishu hosts the largest Turkish military base abroad, which forms a complex that includes a military base and a military college for training Somali soldiers, with over 10,000 soldiers having graduated since its opening in 2007.

"The signing of the Turkish-Somali agreement came five weeks after the announcement of a memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland"

A volatile geopolitical context

In recent months, the Horn of Africa and the southern Red Sea region have become the scene of a series of tensions that have led to international concern that the situation there could spiral out of control.

The signing of the Turkish-Somali agreement came five weeks after the announcement of a memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which will give landlocked Ethiopia access to the Red Sea in exchange for Addis Ababa’s recognition of the self-declared republic.

The memorandum sparked widespread anger in Mogadishu which considered it an infringement on its sovereignty and has led a diplomatic campaign to prevent it from becoming officialised and entering into force.

Relations between Asmara and Addis Ababa are now at their worst since 2018 as landlocked Ethiopia’s claims to a sovereign seaport on the Red Sea have led Eritrea to mobilise its forces on the southern front for fear of a possible Ethiopian invasion.

This is all taking place against the backdrop of Israel’s war on Gaza and the Houthis targeting of shipping containers in the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

The US and Britain have launched military strikes on Yemen in response, dramatically raising the level of tensions in the region.

Possible repercussions

Geopolitically, Tunç Demirtaş believes that the Somali-Turkish agreement cannot be separated from a similar deal signed with Djibouti last month, which included cooperation in the field of military training, military financial cooperation, and a protocol for implementing cash.

The possibility of Turkey becoming an active security actor in the Gulf of Aden is not only a source of concern for various regional actors but is also likely to be viewed as a threat and danger, Demirtaş added.

Many observers believe that military and security cooperation in these agreements will increase Turkey's influence in waterways that are extremely sensitive to international trade.

Somali political analyst Mahmoud Farah believes that some countries view the Turkish role in Somalia with suspicion.

He explained that Somalia has turned into an arena of intense competition between Ankara and Abu Dhabi over the past decade, as the UAE has great influence in the state of Somaliland.

There are indications that Abu Dhabi also supports the memorandum of understanding that Somaliland concluded with Ethiopia, a country where the UAE has large economic and political investments.

"Somalia has turned into an arena of intense competition between Ankara and Abu Dhabi over the past decade"

Within this context, Farah believes that the Turkish-Somali defence agreement will strengthen Mogadishu’s hand in its dispute with Addis Ababa.

Ankara and Addis Ababa still maintain robust relations, however, according to Demirtaş, explaining that Turkey has the second-highest number of investments in Ethiopia after China.

As a result, the agreement with Somalia should not necessarily be viewed as a direct response to the Ethiopia-Somaliland MOU, he added.

Abdolgader Mohamed Ali is an Eritrean journalist and researcher in African Affairs.

Follow him on Twitter: @AbdolgaderAli