Will Israel ever withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor along Egypt's border?

Reports emerged last week that an e-surveillance system could replace Israeli troops in the Philadelphi Corridor. A military withdrawal would reset Israeli relations with Cairo and an effective surveillance system could bring a Gaza ceasefire agreement ever closer.

Since Israel overran the corridor and took control of the Rafah Crossing in May, Cairo has publicly refused to cooperate with Israel and demanded that Israel hands control back to Palestinian authorities.

Israel’s defence minister Yoav Gallant has said he does not want to remain in the corridor in the long term, but many in Israel are reluctant to cede control of the corridor as they fear Hamas will use tunnels below ground to smuggle weapons and people. 

“It is unlikely that Egypt will oppose this [surveillance system] in any meaningful way; the Egyptian army has long tried to limit the flow of weapons between Gaza and Sinai,” Hossam Abougabal, MENA analyst at geopolitical firm Dragonfly, told The New Arab.

“Egypt, along with most of the international community, seem desperate for a ceasefire, so such a detail is unlikely to derail these efforts.”

The Philadelphi Corridor is a narrow 14-kilometre strip of land covering the entire border between Egypt and Gaza. Until May, Egypt had exercised full control over the axis and Israeli troops were prohibited from the zone. 

By taking control of the corridor and Rafah Crossing, Israel broke a decades-long peace treaty with Egypt and jeopardised relations with Cairo.

Netanyahu said last week he won’t withdraw from the corridor any time soon, as keeping troops in the area ​​“has political and security advantages”, but a continued Israeli military presence could compromise a ceasefire agreement, which the international community wants.

“Israel has to withdraw from the Salahdeen corridor to gain back Egyptian cooperation,” Sherif Mohyeldeen, a specialist on Egypt and regional cross-border issues, told The New Arab. “It risks a lot by such a breach of the longest peace treaty with an Arab country.”

Could a surveillance system be a solution?

A surveillance system would detect tunnels and other methods Hamas might use to smuggle weapons or people into the Gaza Strip if Israeli troops withdraw. The sophisticated system could benefit both Israel and Egypt as it would boost security, as well as comply with the Camp David treaty, an accord which is deeply important to the US, a staunch ally of both nations.

“Israeli border technology is nothing new around Gaza,” Abougabal said. “And it [Egypt] is very likely to view such tools as an effective way to maintain control over what goes in and out of Gaza post-conflict,” the analyst added.

“This is especially if there is a third-party Arab peacekeeping mission or the Palestinian Authority assumes control of Gaza’s security.”

Before the Israeli invasion, Egypt patrolled its side of the corridor and Palestinian authorities managed the Gaza side, as per the Camp David agreement. Israel had long been critical of both sides for their management of the buffer zone and fearful of Hamas-built tunnels below ground.

“There is a need to set up an alternative solution, especially at this time where there is not an agreement in place and it is unclear what will happen to Gaza in the future,” Matteo Colombo, a researcher at the Clingendael Institute, told The New Arab.

“The issue of course is that tunnels connecting to Rafah, which still exist on both sides of the border at the moment.”

Will Israel ever give back control of the crossing?

Netanyahu said last week that any ceasefire agreement with the Palestinian group Hamas must prevent weapons from being smuggled into Gaza from Egypt, "primarily by means of Israeli control of the Philadelphi Corridor and the Rafah Crossing".

“From what the declaration of Netanyahu a few days ago actually stated, there's no intention for Israel to withdraw in the short term, which you could easily argue is a violation of the Camp David agreement,” Colombo said.

“I don’t see Israel withdrawing from the corridor for several years as they want to expel Hamas entirely from the area.”

The international community, particularly the US, supports an Israeli withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor as it endangers the Camp David agreement and complicates Israel’s relationship with Egypt, which is crucial for any post-ceasefire peace agreement. 

A continued Israeli military presence in the corridor would further antagonise Egyptian forces. There have been several skirmishes along the border resulting in the deaths of several Egyptian soldiers.

“The Egyptian people are very supportive of the Palestinian cause, so it would be very difficult for Egypt to engage in open talks with Israel, as engaging with Israel would be very unpopular politically,” Colombo said.

Can Egypt forgive Israel?

Before Israel’s invasion of the corridor, Cairo warned Tel Aviv on multiple occasions that sending troops into the zone would cross a red line. Since May, Egypt hasn’t taken any meaningful action, which analysts previously said Israel counted upon. 

“Egyptian authorities publicly condemned Israel taking control of the Gaza side of the border,” according to Abougabal. “But this did not go beyond rhetoric. And there is little to suggest that Egypt is prepared to take punitive actions against Israel over this,” he added.

“Egypt and Israel have been exchanging blame for the closure of the Rafah closure since the start of the conflict. But in the background, there is little to suggest that military and intelligence cooperation has faltered in a meaningful way.” 

The Israeli presence in the Philadelphi Corridor is deeply unpopular among Egyptian people, who are wary of Israeli troops encroaching upon Sinai, a historically sensitive region of Egypt. Cairo also fears a mass exodus of Palestinians into Sinai, which is a more likely scenario if Israel continues to control the Philadelphi Corridor.

According to Mohayeldeen, Egypt is likely to be open to cooperation if Israel withdraws from the corridor.

“Egypt has refused to cooperate with Israel as a response to its occupation of the Egyptian-Palestinian corridor. If Israel de-occupies, Egypt can cooperate again but with new terms not letting Israel repeat its abuse,” he said.

“Not just is the occupation wrong and unacceptable to Egyptians, but also the showing off Israel did with a flag bigger than an occupying tank.”

Lara Gibson is a Cairo-based journalist closely following Egypt's economic and political developments. 

Follow her on Twitter: @lar_gibson