Why are Ukrainian special forces fighting in Sudan's war?

Ukraine suffered its most significant territorial setback in nine months with the loss of the eastern city of Avdiivka amidst recurring reports that it has forces fighting Russian mercenaries on an altogether different battlefield over 3,000 kilometres away.

Ukrainian Timur special forces are active in the civil war in Sudan, according to a report in The Kyiv Post earlier this month. 

Exclusive video purportedly shows these forces interrogating captured Russian Wagner Private Military Contractors, including one prisoner confessing to being part of a 100-strong force sent from the neighbouring Central African Republic to overthrow the government. 

“Not much information is available in the public domain about the Ukrainian military’s presence in Sudan,” Matthew Orr, Eurasia Analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, told The New Arab. 

"The videos suggest Ukrainian special operators are targeting Russian individuals and non-Russians working on behalf of Russian PMCs supporting the RSF"

“Most of what is known comes from reports in Ukrainian media that have been selectively leaked by Ukraine’s HUR (Military Intelligence Directorate), as well as reports in Western media citing Western intelligence officials confirming aspects of the reports.” 

Sudan’s brutal war between the Sudanese Armed Forces under Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Mohammed Hamdan 'Hemedti' Dagalo erupted last April.

It has since killed over 10,000 people, displaced six million within the country, and caused another 1.7 million to flee to neighbouring countries. Less than a week into the war, reports emerged that Wagner supplied the RSF with surface-to-air missiles.

There were also indications in September that Ukrainian special services were operating in Sudan, targeting Wagner and the RSF. 

Video footage from the time purportedly shows the Ukrainian forces using small drones against the RSF. As CNN noted, the video “revealed the hallmarks of Ukrainian-style drone attacks” and “the tactics used - namely the pattern of drones swooping directly into their target - were highly unusual in Sudan and the wider African region”. 

“The videos suggest Ukrainian special operators are targeting Russian individuals and non-Russians working on behalf of Russian PMCs supporting the RSF,” Orr said. “The Sudanese government and military are supportive of Ukraine’s efforts.” 

However, the RANE analyst believes it’s “unlikely” that Ukraine has a significant presence in Sudan, as the “small volume of material allegedly showing Ukrainian strikes and activities” indicates. 

“Sudan would be a strategically logical target for Russian PMC activity, as neighbouring CAR (Central African Republic) is one of the places where Russian PMCs under the GRU (Russia’s Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces) are most active while ensuring access to Sudan would fit within Russia’s broader Sahelian strategy,” Orr said. 

On the other hand, the strategic usefulness of Ukraine’s activities is “dubious” since it needs all available resources to defend its own territory. Nevertheless, Ukraine doesn’t necessarily see it that way. 

“Kyiv likely believes that the few resources spent exaggerating the mere threat of such attacks on Russian interests in Sudan open the possibility of similar attacks across Russian activities in the Middle East and Africa, forcing Moscow to expend disproportionate resources to secure against such activities in new geographies,” Orr said. 

"The small Ukrainian deployment to Sudan is intended by the Zelensky administration to send a big signal to the wider world that Ukraine is ready, willing, and able to fight Russia anywhere on earth"

“Therefore, the logical conclusion of Ukraine’s strategy would be to conduct similar operations against Russians in Syria, Libya, or other parts of Africa.”

Ukraine previously devised a plan to covertly attack Russian forces in Syria, possibly in hopes of forcing Moscow to divert troops away from Ukraine. 

Anton Mardasov, a non-resident scholar with the Middle East Institute’s Syria program, doubts that the Ukrainian deployment in Sudan can achieve much. 

“Frankly speaking, it’s more like fighting Russia where it doesn’t exist,” Mardasov told TNA. 

The analyst noted that, several months before his death, former Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was negotiating a new contract with Hemedti, but no contract was ultimately signed nor implemented. 

“It is also known that Wagner emphasises that this structure is no longer working in Sudan for several years,” Mardasov said. “It can be assumed that some part of Wagner, which has moved to a more or less autonomous position, continues to control some percentage of gold mining in Sudan (previously Wagner exported gold from Sudan to Central African Republic by cars), but there is no evidence of this now,” he added. 

“Now the media is actively promoting the trend that Ukrainian PMCs will fight Russian structures in Africa, for example, in Burkina Faso. In principle, this is nothing new - Russian and Ukrainian structures have competed before for the maintenance of Soviet military equipment in the Middle East and Africa.” 

Nicholas Heras, the senior director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute, echoed Orr’s assessment that the Ukrainian military lacks the “significant capabilities” needed to carry out expeditionary warfare thousands of kilometres from its borders. 

“There is a big difference in scale between the Wagner presence in multiple African countries - including in Sudan - and the small special forces groups that Ukraine can deploy abroad,” Heras told TNA. 

Still, at least two things can be derived from the available information on Ukrainian operations in Sudan that are not insignificant. 

“The small Ukrainian deployment to Sudan is intended by the Zelensky administration to send a big signal to the wider world that Ukraine is ready, willing, and able to fight Russia anywhere on earth,” Heras said. 

“And the Ukrainian deployment to Sudan, to support the beleaguered and losing Sudanese government, also indicates that the Zelensky administration is trying to build allies in Africa, a continent in which many countries have supported Russia in the war.”

Paul Iddon is a freelance journalist based in Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, who writes about Middle East affairs.

Follow him on Twitter: @pauliddon