What the stalled Geneva peace talks mean for Sudan's war

Sudan’s military-backed government has declined to participate in US-led peace talks in Geneva, Switzerland, which hoped to end the country’s 16-month-long civil war.

The government, under Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, commander of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and de facto ruler of Sudan, announced in a press release that it would instead focus on a new round of negotiations in Cairo, building on the Jeddah Declaration which was inked in May 2023.

Whilst the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) sent delegates to the talks, they were not present at the start of discussions last week and their presence there is unclear.

According to US Special Envoy to Sudan Tom Perriello, the Geneva talks, which began in mid-August, were scheduled to address the humanitarian crisis rather than engage in political dialogue.

Diplomats from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, the African Union, and the UN attended the talks, and the RSF also sent representatives. The United States urged Sudan's military on Friday to participate in the ongoing peace talks, but despite international pressure, the SAF refused.

"The government is prepared to engage under three specific conditions: the full implementation of the Jeddah Agreement, recognition of the SAF as Sudan’s legitimate government, and the exclusion of the UAE from the negotiations, even in an observational capacity," political analyst Tahir Satti told The New Arab.

Officials close to the military in Khartoum argue that fulfilling the terms of the Jeddah agreement is "a prerequisite for engaging in broader peace talks" to end the war between the SAF and Rapid Support Forces.

This comes at a time when United Nations officials warn that Sudan is nearing a "cataclysmic breaking point," predicting tens of thousands of preventable deaths due to hunger, disease, floods, and violence if hostilities persist.

"The RSF has shown intransigence and refrained from implementing the commitments," al-Burhan told local media, accusing the RSF of obstructing progress by failing to honour the commitments of the Jeddah agreement.

The veteran general insisted that any peace agreement must uphold the dignity of the Sudanese people and made clear that military operations "would continue" until the RSF withdraws from civilian areas.

"There can be no peace while the rebel militia occupies our homes," he declared.

Meanwhile, RSF Commander Mohamed Hamdan ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo reiterated his commitment to the Geneva talks in a recent post on X, urging the SAF leadership to participate. The tweet accused al-Burhan of lacking "genuine commitment" to the negotiation process and to addressing the hardships faced by Sudan’s citizens, who continue to suffer amid the ongoing conflict.

Khaled Omar, a leader of the Coordination of Civil Democratic Forces, Taqaddum, said that the armed forces' announcement to boycott the Geneva negotiations was “disappointing to millions of Sudanese,” who saw these negotiations as an opportunity to end the war that is destroying the country.

Omar highlighted the contradiction in the armed forces' refusal to participate in the talks, noting that they demand the implementation of the Jeddah Declaration despite having previously withdrawn from it. He also pointed out that the Saudi-US mediation had issued a statement holding both parties responsible for violating the agreement.

“The armed forces are violating the Jeddah Declaration by bombing civilian objects and obstructing humanitarian access, while the RSF is holding on to its positions inside civilian areas,” he said.

Madani Abbas, Sudan’s former Minister of Industry, told TNA in an interview that the Sudanese people are "desperate for an end to the conflict," which has only exacerbated their suffering.

"Many Sudanese view the Geneva talks as a crucial opportunity to resolve the violence that has devastated their lives," he stated.

"The ongoing war would neither restore the Islamic movement to power nor return Sudan to its pre-revolution state. The military’s attempts to regain control are unlikely to succeed, given its previous failures, while the RSF’s advances will only deepen public resentment due to their transgressions, which rhetoric or claims of democratic intent cannot conceal."

Talks without Sudan's army

Perriello described the Geneva discussions as "very, very positive" despite the SAF’s refusal to participate. In an interview with Radio Dabanga, the American diplomat noted that the diplomatic coalition remains committed and actively engages with the RSF and SAF through various channels.

Although the SAF has not yet committed to the talks, Perriello expressed optimism, reiterating the coalition’s efforts to enforce agreements and maintain dialogue with all parties involved.

"Ultimately, the SAF is the constitutional authority in the country," Satti said. "Any progress made without the military’s involvement would be limited and unlikely to lead to a lasting resolution."

Journalist and political analyst Fayez al-Selik pointed out that the primary obstacle to the ongoing negotiations was the lack of genuine commitment from both warring parties to cease hostilities.

"Certain political factions are driven by a desire to secure their future roles post-conflict, which leads them to obstruct peace efforts," he said. "For example, the Islamic movement’s influence over military decisions and its continued advocacy for prolonging the conflict."

He also pointed to the convergence of interests among some groups advocating for negotiations and criticised the limited effectiveness of the US mediator, who has yet to "apply sufficient pressure on the warring parties".

"External influences, including support for the military from countries like Russia and Iran, are shaping the negotiation landscape and bolstering the military’s resistance to US influence," he explained.

She also argued that sustainable peace can only be achieved with the participation of both warring factions.

"The current negotiation strategy fails to address the core issues of the crisis and called for a shift towards direct discussions, where mediators take a more proactive role in reconciling differing perspectives," he explained.

Potential recognition of the RSF

Amani al-Taweel, Director of the African Program at the al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, told TNA that the Geneva talks could be pivotal for the Sudan conflict, potentially shifting the political landscape.

"Pressures from former President Omar al-Bashir's political allies is a significant factor impacting al-Burhan’s decision not to participate," she said.

"Now, because of the influence of the Islamists, the RSF might assume a leading role in international discussions, potentially gaining recognition as a legitimate international player due to their extensive territorial control in Sudan," al-Taweel added.

In the event that the Geneva talks endorse Hemedti’s strategy, the analyst said it could place al-Burhan and his administration in a vulnerable position, as the international community might begin to favour alternatives that could compromise Sudan’s national security interests.

"The SAF’s rigid approach towards the RSF has not yielded significant military victories, and there is a growing public inclination towards negotiations driven by a desire for peace and stability," she explained.

"Certain political factions are driven by a desire to secure their future roles post-conflict, which leads them to obstruct peace efforts"

"The RSF’s involvement in humanitarian initiatives, supported by international backing, could enhance their reputation among civilians and potentially establish them as key players in the future of Darfur and beyond."

The UN has reported that the ongoing conflict has claimed tens of thousands of lives and is the world’s largest displacement crisis, with over 10.7 million people displaced within Sudan. Moreover, half of Sudan's population - some 25 million people - need humanitarian assistance and protection.

The current round of negotiations, according to al-Selik, is "likely to fail," but the parties might take steps to remove obstacles to the distribution of humanitarian aid.

"The worsening humanitarian situation cannot afford further delays," he said. "Mediators must prioritise humanitarian efforts. I am even calling for international intervention to distribute aid and protect civilians if necessary."

Abbas echoed this sentiment, stating that the conflict has "brought losses to all sides" and that the time has come to "end hostilities".

"All honourable citizens of Sudan must begin rebuilding their nation, which had been devastated by the ambitions of military leaders and Islamists alike," he stated. "Sudan must move beyond this turbulent period to establish a unified and democratic nation that reflects the aspirations and dreams of the December Revolution."

This article is published in collaboration with Egab.