What to expect from Xi Jinping's visit to Saudi Arabia

As per media reports, Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Riyadh in the coming days, and preparations to receive him are underway in the Gulf Kingdom.

The excitement surrounding the visit is high, and it is reported that Xi will be feted at the planned megacity of NEOM on the Red Sea coast as well as the capital Riyadh.

Given Beijing’s interest in the oil-rich Arab state, as well as the potential of the visit to elevate Riyadh’s regional standing, it is possible that an important announcement or development will emerge from the meeting between the two heads of state.

“Xi was visiting the Kingdom in March 2020 before the Covid-19 pandemic. If his first foreign trip after the travel break takes him to Saudi Arabia, it sends a symbolic message about the utmost relevance of the bilateral partnership,” Dr Sebastian Sons, a researcher at the Centre for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient (CARPO) in Bonn, told The New Arab, indicating that the visit has been on the cards for quite a while.

"The Kingdom's reception of the Chinese leader will be keenly observed by Western media to assess whether Riyadh is closer to Washington or Beijing, and whether relations with the US are likely to change"

Riyadh and Beijing clinched a “strategic partnership” in 2016 to promote bilateral relations. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin recently said, “China and Saudi Arabia are comprehensive strategic partners… We are ready to work with Saudi Arabia to keep cementing mutual trust and deepening cooperation”.

Based on this understanding of Sino-Saudi ties, a number of developments can be expected during Xi Jinping’s visit.

To start with, having hosted President Joe Biden just one month ago, the Kingdom’s reception of the Chinese leader will be keenly observed by Western media to assess whether Riyadh is closer to Washington or Beijing, and whether relations with the US are likely to change.

According to reports, the gala reception being planned for Xi promises to be as lavish as that during Trump’s visit in 2017. In comparison, Biden’s welcome was rather low-key, as bilateral relations between the US and Saudi Arabia became strained after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

“After the Biden visit, the potential trip of Xi to Saudi Arabia symbolises the Kingdom’s approach to promote strategic autonomy by not acting as a puppet or proxy of the US anymore,” said Dr Sons, explaining that Chinese attention would provide Saudi Arabia more leverage in its dealings with Washington, and demonstrate that it is not isolated.

“However, the US remains important. Therefore, Saudi Arabia uses its relations with China as a bargaining chip to pressure Biden to cooperate closer with the Kingdom,” he added.

Secondly, considering the upheaval in global energy markets after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Beijing’s key focus during the visit should be on oil. In 2021, total trade between China and Saudi Arabia was worth $87 billion with Riyadh as the top exporter of oil to China with a 17% share in its total imports.

Since China has high stakes in this field, it is possible that an even bigger oil deal could materialise during Xi’s visit. This would be particularly significant given Biden’s failure to secure a deal to reduce oil prices in the US.

Just weeks ago, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company Aramco finalised a deal with China’s state-owned Sinopec for collaboration in areas such as “carbon capture and hydrogen processes” and there have been discussions about launching a manufacturing hub in eastern Saudi Arabia.

In addition, the two countries have even discussed using the yuan instead of dollars for bilateral trade. If this goes ahead, Saudi Arabia would become the first major oil exporter to replace the dollar with the yuan, though, beyond the symbolic, it is unlikely to make much difference in the dollar-dominated global oil market.

“The Gulf countries have their currencies pegged to the dollar, and it is illogical for any country that links its currency to the dollar to try and destabilise its position,” said Mohammed al-Azmi, a Kuwaiti professor of economics.

However, China has also been acquiring oil at cheaper rates from sanction-ridden Russia and Moscow has recently overtaken Riyadh as Beijing’s biggest oil supplier for the third month in a row.

 "In the past, economic relations mostly focused on energy and infrastructure but more recently, activities in cyber-security, defence, artificial intelligence and communications technology have intensified"

Thirdly, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has linked up very well with Crown Prince MBS’s economic diversification policy, Saudi Vision 2030.

“Both states largely rely on prioritising economic engagement by creating synergy effects between China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. In the past, economic relations mostly focused on energy and infrastructure but more recently, activities in cyber-security, defence, artificial intelligence and communications technology have intensified,” observed Dr Sons.

Moving away from oil dependence, infrastructure projects under the BRI in Saudi Arabia were worth $40 billion between 2014 and 2019. Alongside these, there are further possibilities in technology and services under China’s Digital Corridor and the Beidou satellite system.

Meanwhile, the Kingdom’s economy is now the biggest in the Arab world and according to a recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) report, it is likely to expand by 7.6% by the end of this year.

“Saudi Arabia is taking impressive steps to improve the business environment, attract foreign investment and create private-sector employment,” said Amine Mati and Sidra Rehman, economists at the IMF, noting that the Saudi economy grew at its fastest pace in a decade. 

In 2021, Saudi Arabia also became a “dialogue partner” in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a regional security and development group leaning towards Beijing and Moscow, including Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Pakistan and India.

“As China has emerged as the top trade partner of Saudi Arabia, the Kingdom aims to consolidate strong business and political relations, which also indicates Riyadh’s efforts to diversify economic and political partnerships,” commented Dr Sons of Saudi interest in the alliance. 

The fourth potential development concerns defence ties, which both countries have been investing in, though Washington remains Riyadh’s primary security factor.

Beijing has been helping Riyadh with missile technology and setting up nuclear power plants. According to a report by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, arms transfers from China to Saudi Arabia increased 386% between 2016 and 2020.

“In general, Saudi-Sino relations are driven by business-oriented pragmatism. Saudi Arabia considers China a trustworthy and reliable partner in terms of economic engagement and investment and is also interested in intensifying security cooperation. For instance, China is providing equipment and know-how to develop a localised Saudi defence industry,” explained Dr Sons.

But China is yet to replace the US where the Kingdom’s specific defence needs are concerned. For example, the Biden administration announced a $3 billion arms package this month for Riyadh, which includes a potential sale of Patriot missile batteries.

Ostensibly, since Beijing has not shown much interest in taking on a security role in the Middle East, there is no real power competition with Washington yet.

"In contrast to the US, China is much more welcomed in Saudi Arabia as Xi doesn't express any critical statements regarding human rights violations"

Finally, convergences between Beijing and Riyadh also extend into the realm of governance and human rights. Describing Saudi Arabia’s relationship with China, Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman said, “We (Arabs) have history thousands of years of relationship with China, but we never faced challenges or interference from China.”

“In contrast to the US, China is much more welcomed in Saudi Arabia as Xi doesn’t express any critical statements regarding human rights violations. In turn, the Saudi leadership stays silent on Chinese human rights abuses against the Uyghurs. It has also expressed its support for the ‘one China’ policy regarding Taiwan, which widens the rift with the US,” said Dr Sons.

The exact developments that will emerge from Xi Jinping’s visit to the Kingdom remain to be seen, but the likelihood of cooperation on energy, economy, and defence issues and the increasing alignment between Riyadh and Beijing could shift regional and international dynamics.

Sabena Siddiqui is a foreign affairs journalist, lawyer, and geopolitical analyst specialising in modern China, the Belt and Road Initiative, the Middle East and South Asia. 

Follow her on Twitter: @sabena_siddiqi