What does Turkey and Egypt's new relationship mean for the region?

The day after Erdogan’s election victory last weekend, Egyptian leader Abdel Fattah el-Sisi telephoned his Turkish counterpart to offer his congratulations.

Sisi later told the world that, “the two presidents decided to immediately start elevating diplomatic relations between the two countries and exchanging ambassadors”.

After a decade of hostile relations following Sisi’s 2013 overthrow of Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohammed Morsi, it seems that Turkey and Egypt are newfound allies.

A renewed relationship between the Eastern Mediterranean's two largest military powers is likely to shift geopolitical dynamics in the region and could resolve key deadlocked issues, regional observers told The New Arab.

This could have implications for highly-charged ongoing crises such as Libya, Sudan, and the Eastern Mediterranean maritime dispute.

“It's quite a big game changer because Egypt and Turkey are the two large Sunni Muslim powers in the East Mediterranean, and they both see each other as the region's hegemon,” according to Dr Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute.

"Egypt and Turkey's reasons for rapprochement are largely due to the economic crises both nations face, as well as a common desire to increase political reach in the region"

Turkey and Egypt’s decade-long dispute was driven by three main factors: Erdogan’s continued support of the Muslim Brotherhood after Sisi ousted Morsi in 2013, the backing of competing factions in the Libya conflict, and Egypt’s engagement with Greece in the Eastern Mediterranean maritime dispute.

But in recent years, the two regional powers have indicated intentions to resolve their differences.

“The current normalisation between Egypt and Turkey began two years ago with multiple rounds of talks between officials from both countries which paved the way to resuming relations and opening a new chapter in their relations,” Dr Khalil al-Anani, a senior fellow at the Arab Centre Washington D.C., told The New Arab.

A summit between the two presidents is expected to take place in the near future and senior officials have indicated that the historic allies will work together to tackle the Libyan and Eastern Mediterranean crises.

“Both countries seem to be willing to work out their differences, particularly with regard to three key issues,” Dr al-Anani explained.

Reasons for rapprochement

Egypt and Turkey’s reasons for rapprochement are largely due to the economic crises both nations face, as well as a common desire to increase political reach in the region.

“The rapprochement is driven by two factors: the internal socio-economic problems both countries are facing which prompted them to reduce their tensions and become open for dialogue and mutual interests," said Dr al-Anani.

"Second, is the regional de-escalation which created a new positive atmosphere to mend bilateral relations between Cairo and Ankara,” he added, referring to the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the rehabilitation of the Assad regime by regional powers, and the resolution of the diplomatic rift between Qatar and its GCC neighbours, among other recent developments.

Turkey fell into a recession in 2018 and its citizens are still struggling to navigate the effects of sky-high inflation, estimated to stand at over 100% annually, with the economic crisis playing a significant role in the recent elections.

Likewise, Egypt is tackling its own economic headache, as the state spends over 45% of its budget repaying its mounting debt burden and faces core inflation of around 40%.

As a result of Turkey’s economic woes, from 2019 “Erdogan began to reset his Muslim Brotherhood and Middle East policy, to cultivate investment flows from the Gulf,” Dr Cagaptay commented.

“Egypt was the last country to come on board out of this group of four countries that are called the new Middle East quartet: Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.”

“I think that Erdogan was told that he would also have to satisfy Egyptian concerns regarding the Brotherhood, not just Emirati, Israeli and Saudi,” Dr Cagaptay added.

"The two nations both need to appease wealthy Gulf states like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, as neither Turkey nor Egypt has the economic strength to withstand political isolation"

Dr al-Anani believes Turkey has taken steps to put Sisi’s mind at ease. “Turkey has already taken some measures against the Muslim Brotherhood over the past two years where it shut down the anti-Sisi satellite channel Mekamleen. These measures helped to defuse tensions and build trust with Cairo.”

Like its new ally, Egypt is also reliant on investment flows from the Gulf to solve its liquidity needs. Egypt is in the process of selling a series of state assets to Gulf investors to bring in much-needed foreign direct investment.

The two nations both need to appease wealthy Gulf states like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, as neither Turkey nor Egypt has the economic strength to withstand political isolation.

What could Turkey and Egypt achieve as allies?

On a bilateral level, Turkey and Egypt have reasons to work together directly. “Egypt is the first economic partner of Turkey and at the same time Egypt is one of the main international markets for Turkey,” Dr Giuseppe Dentice, Head of the MENA Desk at the Centre for International Studies, told The New Arab.

“This means that both countries have common interests to relaunch dialogue and to find diplomatic pathways in order to address economic needs.”

Geopolitically, Turkey may need Egypt’s support to resolve the Eastern Mediterranean crisis, in which Turkey and Greece are locked in a battle over maritime borders.

“The last piece that drew Erdogan to reset with Egypt was the shifting environment in the East Med. Turkey’s old adversaries, Greek Cyprus and Greece, had now come together with new adversaries Israel and Egypt, and Erdogan realised that this axis of four countries could block Turkey in the East Mediterranean; because you can draw a line from Athens to Cairo that blocks Turkey,” Dr Cagaptay explained.

“Let's see if Egypt sides with Turkey in the East Mediterranean dispute or is neutral,” he added.

One of the main issues of contention that further tore Turkey and Egypt apart was their backing of competing factions in Libya. “Turkey and Egypt are locked in some strategic competition there with Egypt backing Khalifa Haftar in the east and Turkey backing the internationally recognised government in Tripoli,” Dr Cagaptay told The New Arab.

“It is quite significant that the two countries are making up and it probably suggests that they're going to resolve some of their differences in Libya. That's good for Libya's stability. I would say Turkey and Egypt are the two main military powers present in the west and east of the country respectively.”

"It is quite significant that the two countries are making up and it probably suggests that they're going to resolve some of their differences in Libya. That's good for Libya's stability"

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced last month that Ankara and Cairo will cooperate more closely regarding Libya, where they back opposing sides. Egypt and Turkey’s foreign ministers affirmed that they share a common desire to hold elections in Libya and break the deadlock.

Dr Dentice suggested that the two largest military powers in the region may form a mechanism to resolve ongoing conflicts.

“Libya could be the first step. Turkey and Egypt may be able to replicate this model in other areas, for example, in Sudan or in or in the Eastern Mediterranean,” he said.

Lara Gibson is a Cairo-based journalist closely following Egypt's economic and political developments. 

Follow her on Twitter: @lar_gibson