Is Sudan heading towards a long-term civil war?

After 19 months of fighting, Sudan's civil war is still raging with no end in sight.

The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has resulted in the world’s worst displacement crisis and “a starvation crisis of historic proportions”, according to three international non-governmental organisations.

Dynamics on the ground have changed drastically since late September, when after over a year of military dominance the RSF faced its biggest challenge with the SAF advancing into Khartoum and the SAF-aligned ‘Darfur Joint Forces’ (a coalition of armed groups from Darfur) opening multiple fronts against the RSF in the region.

Additionally, the SAF regained control of the strategic Jebel Moya region, which connects three states: Sennar, White Nile, and Gezira. The region is crucial for controlling access and supply lines to these areas.

The RSF has also faced growing isolation off the battlefield. The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Algoney Dagalo, the RSF's procurement chief and younger brother of RSF leader Mohammad Hamdan Dagalo (also known as 'Hemedti'), for "leading efforts to supply weapons" to the paramilitary group.

Following the imposition of sanctions on the younger Dagalo, the RSF’s official account as well as accounts affiliated with the RSF, including Hemedti’s, were suspended on X due to violations of platform rules regarding the promotion of violence and hate speech.

This followed the RSF’s suspension on Facebook months earlier from Facebook for violating the platform’s Dangerous Organizations and Individuals Policy.

Adding to its military challenges, the RSF was dealt a huge blow with the defection of Abu Aqla Kikal, a senior commander and the face of the RSF in central Sudan, who surrendered himself and his forces to the army in early October.

According to a former member of Hemedti’s advisory team, who asked to remain anonymous, this is the beginning of a trend likely to continue as the RSF will inevitably be dislodged from Central Sudan and weakened throughout the country.

“The RSF never achieved its original plan of crushing the SAF. Now that it’s losing territory, especially in Central Sudan, there will be more defections by RSF soldiers and commanders to save themselves,” the source told The New Arab. 

Kikal’s defection unleashed waves of ethnically motivated rampages by RSF forces in Eastern Gezira, a region home to Kikal’s own Shukriya tribe.

The attacks have resulted in the loss of over 1,200 civilian lives and the displacement of more than 130,000 people, heightening concerns that Sudan may be heading towards a conflict that could further entangle civilians along tribal lines.

Bakry Eljak Elmedni, a spokesperson for 'Taqaddum', an alliance of civil and political groups opposed to the war, recently warned that Sudan's conflict risks devolving into a "comprehensive civil war". He also cautioned that in areas controlled by the SAF “mobilisation and recruitment are carried out on an ethnic and tribal basis”.

These concerns have stemmed from recent statements from the Chief of the Shukriya Tribe, Ahmed Abu Sin, calling on members of the tribe to mobilise and stand with the SAF “to repel the brutal aggression” of the RSF. 

This comes in addition to the SAF’s training and mobilisation of numerous tribes in Eastern Sudan, which include the Hadendawa, the Bani Amer, and the Rashaida who have shown readiness to take up arms to defend their communities from potential RSF incursions.

While Sudan’s war has re-ignited inter-communal tensions in Darfur and created new tribal frictions elsewhere, according to Muammar Ibrahim, a journalist who spoke to The New Arab from El-Fasher in North Darfur, the Sudanese have never been more united against a common enemy.

“The Sudanese, in all parts of Sudan, are united in their opposition to the Rapid Support Forces,” Ibrahim said.

He also believes the RSF is in terminal decline as morale is higher in the ranks of the SAF and Darfur Joint Forces supporting the army.

“The Rapid Support Forces are in a state of weakness and collapse, especially in Darfur. Its sources of supplies of arms are now in the hands of the Joint Forces, they have no way to bring the arms they used to bring in freely like before,” Ibrahim added.

While the RSF appears to be growing weaker, its reprisal attacks and widespread use of sexual violence in Gezira and other areas under its control continue unabated.

This has bolstered international calls for a civilian protection force, but the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, recently reported that “the conditions do not exist for the successful deployment of a United Nations force to protect civilians in Sudan”.

Guterres's determination was unsurprising, given that the SAF has already made clear it would regard any international forces deployed as enemy combatants and would view such a move as a flagrant violation of Sudan's sovereignty.

While the SAF has presented itself as the more ethical side in the war, it has also drawn widespread criticism from citizens who have highlighted its shortcomings in protecting civilians and in targeting them negligently through indiscriminate air strikes.

In a post on X, SAF chief Abdel Fattah Al Burhan wrote that “the more the terrorist militia of Dagalo’s family sheds blood of innocent citizens, the more Sudanese people are determined to resist them”.

The post was made just days after Kikal, the RSF commander who defected to the army, benefited from a "no questions asked" amnesty. The pardon absolved him and his forces of atrocities committed since the RSF initially entered Gezira state in December 2023.

The statement sparked public outrage and numerous users reported being blocked by Burhan’s account after airing their concerns in the comments, chief among them the fact that the SAF was doing nothing to intervene and protect civilians in the state.

According to a retired Colonel from the SAF, who preferred to remain anonymous, civilian protection is tricky for the army under current conditions. Especially since the RSF is attacking civilians in areas under its control and in areas far from the frontlines.

“The military presence in Gezira has always been sparse because historically, it is a safe and quiet agricultural area that never needed a significant military presence,” he told The New Arab.

“Sending reinforcements to these areas is not easy for the army because the logistics of such an operation might distract it from other operations, and fighting between army and Rapid Support Forces units in these areas could cause even more civilian casualties,” the source added.

For many, including the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the best solution lies in ending the war. Guterres urged in his remarks to the Security Council that “diplomatic efforts must be intensified to finally bring an end to the conflict”.

This too has become difficult as peace prospects have grown more remote following Hemedti's speech on 9 October, following the RSF’s loss of Jebel Moya, during which he levelled accusations against Egypt and alleged that its fighter jets were directly involved in hitting RSF positions which helped the SAF take control of the area.

While the RSF has yet to present any evidence supporting its claim, Hemedti has, for now, alienated Egypt from the peace process and made clear that it will halt its participation in any and all negotiations.

Egypt, a key observer of both the clandestine Manama talks and the US-led negotiations in Geneva, has attempted to stem the bleeding in Sudan and mediate between the SAF and RSF since the conflict erupted.

However, since Hemedti’s accusations, Egypt’s animosity towards the paramilitary leader has become apparent as it now refers to his forces openly as a ‘militia’ in official statements of the Egyptian Foreign Ministry.

The SAF, which has been less amenable to peace talks for most of the conflict and particularly over the past few months, has pre-conditioned its attendance at talks on the exclusion of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from negotiations, even in an observational capacity.

The SAF's accusations have been corroborated by a UN Panel of Experts report, which found the UAE's support for the RSF as "credible". Additionally, a US State Department-funded group known as the Sudan Conflict Observatory determined with "near certainty" that the UAE has been involved in weapon transfers to the RSF for most of the war's duration.

The Biden administration, however, undermined its own peace-making efforts in Sudan by not only including the UAE in the latest round of talks in Geneva but also by framing the Gulf state as a bona fide humanitarian actor in the conflict, despite ample evidence to the contrary.

The UAE was included in the Aligned for Advancing Lifesaving and Peace in Sudan (ALPS) group, which also comprised Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Egypt, the African Union, and the United Nations after the talks pivoted towards securing humanitarian access following the SAF's boycott and the inability to broker talks between the warring sides.

The return of President-elect Donald Trump to the Oval Office, meanwhile, looks even less likely to signal a change in strategy on Sudan.

Sudan’s newly appointed foreign minister, Ali Youssef, expressed optimism in working with the incoming Trump administration on resolving the crisis, asking that it “apply pressure on the sides that are helping fuel the fire in Sudan to stop”.

However, since leaving office after his first term, Trump has maintained strong connections with the UAE and other Gulf states through commercial dealings conducted through his personal company, the Trump Organisation, as well as investments managed by his son-in-law and former advisor, Jared Kushner, through his private equity firm, Affinity Partners.

It has been reported that Affinity Partners has received significant investments from a UAE sovereign wealth fund.

Trump has also pledged that the Abraham Accords will be an “absolute priority”, meaning that the UAE, which played a critical role in promoting normalisation with Israel in the Arab world, will remain central to his regional foreign policy during his second term.

An incoming Trump administration therefore appears unlikely to provide the diplomatic reinvigoration needed to end Sudan's war. Rather, the conflict seems poised to continue, entering a new and potentially more violent phase. 

Elfadil Ibrahim is a writer and analyst focused on Sudanese politics