Saudi-UAE jostling casts doubts over peace in Yemen's south

Yemen's journey towards peace has taken a more hopeful turn as violent clashes have abated following talks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in April.

This comes amid a broader trend gradually taking shape across the Middle East, with traditional rivals attempting to reconcile their differences.

Despite this, the situation in Yemen is not as straightforward as it seems. While ongoing peace efforts show more promise compared to previous attempts that faltered, they have also provided Saudi Arabia and the UAE with an opportunity to vie for influence in Yemen's south, a region of significant geostrategic importance for both states as they compete for greater supremacy in the Gulf.

The perceived ‘frenemies’ relationship between the two countries is showing signs of strain and while their competitive dynamics may persist in the short term, it could also risk triggering more tensions in the south.

"The Saudi-Emirati competition for influence in south Yemen has been a persistent rivalry from the very beginning"

Previously, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE showed little attention to Yemen's humanitarian crisis, even abstaining from providing aid during a UN fundraiser in 2020. However, on 1 August, Saudi Arabia pledged $1.2 billion to support Yemen's salary payments, address food insecurity, and cover operational expenses in the country.

This move, channelled through the Presidential Council, was met with praise from the Council's Chairman and appeared to be an attempt by Riyadh to strengthen its influence over Yemen via a friendly government.

Riyadh’s attempts to shore up the government also aimed to prevent the independence hopes of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is backed by the UAE. This came as Riyadh feared Abu Dhabi might disrupt its peace efforts in Yemen.

“By looking at the situation in Hadramout and Aden, as well as the formation and performance of the presidential council, it becomes evident how deep the tension is within the alliance,” Hesham Al Ziady, a Yemeni journalist, told The New Arab.

“On the other side, the UAE-backed STC is escalating and threatening to take over the governorate that is now under the control of the government and the 1st Military Region Forces, supported by Saudi Arabia.”

Recent media reports indicate that Saudi Arabia has taken steps to remove the Southern Transitional Council's forces in Aden, signalling a shift towards implementing the Riyadh Agreement. Saudi Arabia has supported a unified Yemen, but vocal disagreements between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi indicate fractures over their once-unified policies in the country.

“The Saudi-Emirati competition for influence in south Yemen has been a persistent rivalry from the very beginning, driven by their interest in intervening in Yemen,” Nabil Al Bukiri, a Yemen researcher based in Istanbul, told The New Arab.

“The significant political vacuum in Yemen has enabled this conflict and has been filled by militias funded by both the UAE and Saudi Arabia.”

Past rifts over Yemen

Both countries, in principle, have played roles as security partners in Yemen, particularly in the southern region and being members of the anti-Houthi coalition. However, with the conflict with the Houthis in the north easing, this has opened the door for increased competition over Yemen’s south.

The UAE, for instance, has sought control over a series of ports in south Yemen. This move is part of a broader strategy to establish dominance in the region and connect with its ambitions of controlling ports in the Horn of Africa. By doing so, the UAE aims to enhance its capabilities as an economic hub between East Africa and South Asia.

While empowering the STC as a partner to achieve these objectives in south Yemen, the faction has also embarked on a diplomatic campaign to secure support from global powers. It has established offices in various influential countries, such as the US, EU, UK, and Russia, in an effort to gain international backing. However, since its formation in 2017, the STC has struggled to gain support for independence, besides Abu Dhabi.

"With the conflict with the Houthis in the north easing, this has opened the door for increased competition over Yemen's south"

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has sought to reassert itself over Yemen to boost its own regional ambitions. As Gulf analyst Abdullah Baabood noted, “the primary focus of Riyadh’s maritime strategy is centred on its Red Sea coast. Securing this maritime corridor is a vital element in Saudi Arabia’s wider ambition to establish itself as a global tourism and logistics hub”.

This would shed light on the rationale behind Saudi Arabia's endeavour to construct its Red Sea touristic hub, alongside its security concerns along its southern border in Yemen.

These considerations are crucial elements of its broader economic transition away from dependency on oil, as envisioned in its Vision 2030 plan to diversify its economy beyond its heavy reliance on oil revenues.

Despite concerns over renewed clashes in the south, such tensions have been eased in the past. In August 2019, the longstanding tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia triggered an open conflict after the STC ousted the Hadi government from Aden and assumed control.

Aside from breaking up the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis, the Yemen government’s pushback led to Emirati warplanes bombing government forces in their attempt to regain authority, resulting in several weeks of intense conflict.

Eventually a temporary resolution was reached, albeit a fragile one, when both the UAE and Saudi Arabia formed the Riyadh Agreement. This eased fears, at that time, of a wider rift between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh.

Building on this agreement, the Presidential Council was implemented in April 2022, aiming to address and bridge the widening gaps within the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis, and unifying the power-sharing agreement.

“The Presidential Council, established over a year ago, is also experiencing constant discord among its members, which has negatively affected its effectiveness in fulfilling its duties,” said Al Ziady.

Implications for Yemen's stability

However, the situation remains delicate, and the STC continues its efforts to exert control, while the Saudi-backed government has pursued the same outcome. Ultimately, the STC has not renounced its desire for independence, nor has Saudi Arabia or the Yemeni government been willing to accept its demands.

Amid attempts to resolve their rivalry, tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been evident, with pro-government commentators from Saudi Arabia expressing their disapproval of the Emirati role in Yemen.

Despite efforts to reconcile, Abu Dhabi's actions were perceived as divisive and contentious. This was further exacerbated by a tense incident last year when Riyadh's Crown Prince, Mohammad bin Salman, reportedly accused the UAE of betraying their alliance, stating they "stabbed us in the back".

However, despite these strained relations, bin Salman told his advisors not to alter Riyadh's policy towards Abu Dhabi, highlighting its reluctance to abandon their close relations. Both governments have often relied on each other's influence in various engagements in Yemen, including opposing the Houthis, while also strengthening their military partnerships.

"Any conflict within the camp of the legitimate government and its regional supporters will, in turn, consolidate the Houthis' power, complicating the efforts of the UN to reach a peace agreement between Yemeni parties"

With Saudi Arabia having spearheaded the intervention in Yemen, while developing its influence in the country through aid and the Presidential Council, it remains in the driver's seat regarding the course of actions in the region.

Concerned about preventing any opportunity for the Houthis to exploit Yemen, especially in the southern region, Riyadh is determined to prevent any split in the south.

“Any conflict within the camp of the legitimate government and its regional supporters will, in turn, consolidate the Houthis' power, complicating the efforts of the UN to reach a peace agreement between Yemeni parties,” said Al Ziady.

If the conflict continues to remain subdued, it is likely to amplify demands for independence in the southern region, underscoring the imperative for diplomatic efforts and comprehensive peace efforts.

Despite some indications of potential tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, both parties would presumably go to great lengths to prevent any rift, even if it means sidelining the notion of southern independence.

“They are fully aware that any conflict between them in Yemen won't serve their interests in Yemen. They have been in a similar situation before and have successfully tackled it,” said Al Ziady.

Even if Saudi Arabia and the UAE's relationship holds, disagreements and a split in south Yemen could occur. Nabil Al Bukiri said the intensifying competition between them could mean a breakdown is possible.

Such a reality could mean stability in the south is far from guaranteed, despite wider hopes for peace in the country.

Jonathan Fenton-Harvey is a journalist and researcher who focuses on conflict, geopolitics, and humanitarian issues in the Middle East and North Africa.

Follow him on Twitter: @jfentonharvey