How Turkey's opposition stunned Erdogan's AKP in local elections

The outpouring of joy on the streets of Istanbul and other cities across Turkey on Sunday evening was spontaneous as much as it was unexpected.

Glued to their TV screens across the country of 84 million, voters remained sceptical as the first results already appeared to show a decisive victory for the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), particularly across the country's largest and most populated cities, including Istanbul, the capital Ankara, and Izmir.

Fresh from a defeat in the 2023 general elections last May, despite great hopes and a broad opposition alliance, those who had cast their ballots for Turkey's secular-nationalist, social-democratic party appeared weary of declaring victory too soon in an election poised to set the trajectory of Turkish politics for years to come.

"The Republican People's Party won in 36 of Turkey's 81 provinces, gaining ground in numerous AKP strongholds and 37.7 percent of the vote overall, compared to the AKP's 35.5 percent"

The first to proclaim victory was Mansur Yavas, the incumbent mayor of Ankara, who eventually retained his seat with a remarkable 60 percent of the vote over his main challenger from Erdogan's Justice and Development (AK) party, who lagged behind with over 31 percent.

In Istanbul, the city's mayor Ekrem Imamoglu followed suit with a speech in front of the city's town hall as thousands streamed into the streets chanting and waving Turkish flags.

"You opened the door to the rise of democracy, equality and freedom … You ignited hope at the ballot box,” the mayor said addressing the crowd in the country's largest city and cultural capital, adding that the election had no losers.

The CHP won in 36 of Turkey’s 81 provinces, gaining ground in numerous AKP strongholds and 37.7 percent of the vote overall, compared to the AKP's 35.5 percent. Turnout was lower than at the general election last year, but still relatively high - particularly in comparison to some Western democracies - at 77 percent.

“Since 1977, the CHP has never been this strong,” Seda Demiralp, a professor of political science at Isik University, told The New Arab.

“It is a significant moment that I think will have major implications in national politics,” she added. “Voters sent a clear signal to the government of their dissatisfaction. Part of it is economic, but there are other issues too, like women's rights. And young people were among the key constituencies of the opposition in the local elections.”

“In national elections, Erdogan has been able to convince voters that this is about national security and that voting for the opposition will risk Turkey's national interest. So a lot of voters, even though they were not happy with the government's performance, went and voted for Erdogan anyway [in 2023].”

In his own speech, Erdogan accepted his party's defeat and said the central government would work with the elected mayors.

“We will correct our mistakes and address our shortcomings,” he said, vowing to push forward with a new economic programme introduced last year to tame rampant inflation.

"Since 1977, the CHP has never been this strong. It is a significant moment that I think will have major implications in national politics"

A warning to Erdogan

Imamoglu had already won a resounding victory in 2019, after the AKP contested the result and asked for a rerun, alleging irregularities.

The contest between Imamoglu and Erdogan's candidate Murat Kurum on Sunday was seen as pivotal not only because of the symbolic and economic importance of Istanbul - where Erdogan began his career as mayor - but also because Imamoglu is considered a frontrunner for the nation's highest office in the 2028 general election.

Bigger than his own party in terms of popularity, Imamoglu tends to appeal to voters beyond the CHP's traditional party base in the megacity of 16 million.

“Imamoglu managed to connect to Kurdish voters in Istanbul, even though there was no official alliance at the party level,” Demiralp said.

“He did not suggest a solution to the Kurdish question, but connected to voters at the emotional level, not necessarily at the ideological level,” she added.

For many commentators, Sunday's results further demonstrate that candidates matter and Kemal Kilicdaroglu was the wrong one to challenge Erdogan's charismatic leadership in 2023.

“Candidates play a big role, but there are other factors,” Salim Cevik, a fellow at the Centre for Applied Turkish Studies at SWP Berlin, told The New Arab.

“In local elections, supporters of the AK Party can abstain or vote for other parties to send a message, which is something they don't do in general elections,” he argued.

“The other reason is that in the lead-up to last year's election, there was a lot of election spending, like big hikes in wages, early retirement rights, cheap credits. But this time, there wasn't much spending, probably because the coffers are empty," he explained.

Political science professor Seda Demiralp argues that losing Istanbul for another term will make it hard for the AK Party to win the hearts and minds of voters through further economic benefits.

“That's another reason why I think this opposition victory will have consequences in national politics and is consequential for Turkey's prospects of re-democratisation.”

"In national elections, Erdogan has been able to convince voters that this is about national security and that voting for the opposition will risk Turkey's national interests"

“It is extremely difficult to beat the government in competitive authoritarian systems,” said Ahmet Ozturk, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at London Metropolitan University.

He highlighted the considerable advantage the government holds due to its control over state resources, institutions, and the majority of media outlets, creating an environment where opposition parties contend in elections characterised by significant asymmetry and constraints.

“In this local election, against the general trend within the world, Imamoglu, Yavas, and all the opposition candidates show that there is a possibility to defeat the government under competitive authoritarian regimes,” Ozturk said.

Ylenia Gostoli is a reporter currently based in Istanbul, Turkey. She has covered politics, social change, and conflict across the Middle East and Europe. Her work on refugees, migration, and human trafficking has won awards and grants.

Follow her on Twitter: @YleniaGostoli