How anger at the Gaza war drove Jordanians to the polls

Boiling anger against Israel over the war in Gaza brought Jordan’s Islamist opposition huge wins in the country’s recent elections on 10 September.

The Islamic Action Front (IAF) - the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan - tripled its representation in parliament, securing 31 seats in the 138-seat lower house, up from just 10 out of 130 in the last election in 2020. 

The IAF is a staunch supporter of the Palestinian group Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. Since 7 October, the party has headed the organisation of near-weekly protests against Israel and its war crimes in Gaza, with crowds swelling into the thousands.

“Gaza has changed everything,” Osama al-Sharif, an Amman-based political commentator, told The New Arab.

“People became very politicised, especially young people who had never been interested in politics, but who have constituted the bulk of protesters expressing emotion and solidarity with the Palestinians. This was a very important factor that determined the trajectory of the elections,” he said.

Voter turnout witnessed a slight uptick from 2020, reaching about 32%. While still low, Sharif pointed out that it demonstrated “a reversal in a trend where turnout has been decreasing over the past decade”.

The recent elections were the first to be held under Jordan’s new electoral law, meant to pave the way for political parties to play a larger role in a landscape where tribal affiliations have traditionally dominated.

Notably, the reforms gave Jordanians two votes: one for closed nationwide party lists (41 out of 138 seats) and another for open local lists according to the voter’s place of residence. This allocated about 30 percent of seats for political parties, whereas previously parties occupied less than 10 percent.

The EU’s election observation mission - which deployed 120 observers to monitor the elections -  said that they were “well-run” and “inclusive”, “in the context of an ambitious reform process”. They applauded the freedom of assembly, and the accuracy and inclusivity of voter lists, but pointed to the country’s lingering “gaps for fundamental rights protections”, including administrative practices that allow for arbitrary detention and the curtailment of freedoms of expression. 

Islamist bloc 'closest to the national pulse'

“The Islamists are the bloc closest to the national pulse,” Sharif said. “They are able to mobilise people across the board - not only the Islamists, but also secularists, young people, and those from the tribes.” 

The IAF’s “firm position toward the Palestinian cause” and the crimes committed by Israel in Gaza have gained the party support among Jordanians, Dima Tahboub, an IAF MP who won a seat on the national list, told The New Arab. “Through electing the Islamists, the people wanted to send a strong message that ‘we support their position on Palestine and the war on Gaza’.”

Among the IAF’s goals for Palestine are to protect Jordan’s custodianship of holy sites in Jerusalem and to annul the Jordan-Israel peace deal, cemented in 1994 under what is known as the “Wadi Araba Treaty,” Tahboub said.

“Calling for the annulment of Wadi Araba and all other treaties that have sprung from it has been our calling all along,” Tahboub stated. “Our view toward Palestine has never changed, but the current war on Gaza has strengthened it further…,” she added. 

Just two days before elections, a Jordanian gunman killed three Israeli civilians at a crossing from Jordan into the West Bank - a rare attack along the border, which has been mostly quiet since the signing of the 1994 peace treaty.

The act was celebrated widely among Jordanians, thousands of whom gathered after the incident in the capital, Amman, shooting fireworks and joining in chants calling for resistance against Israel’s occupation. 

The popularity of Hamas has risen significantly in Jordan since 7 October, including among demographic groups - like Jordan’s powerful tribes - normally less vocally supportive of Palestinian groups like Hamas, compared to those Jordanians of Palestinian origin. Many Jordanians favour Hamas’s strategy of armed resistance against Israel, versus diplomacy.

“The attack was celebrated by Jordanians across all strata of society as an act of defiance and resistance,” Sharif said. “It brought people together behind the [Palestine] cause,” he added, “It was an emotional infusion pushing people to show up and vote for the only party that is close to the national pulse.”

'Acceptance in the Jordanian street' 

“The results are not shocking to us,” Tahboub said, commenting on the new election law. “In the Arab world, not only in Jordan, when there’s a minimum degree of transparency and not rigging the elections, usually the vote comes in favour of the Islamists,” she said, referencing past elections in Egypt, Tunisia, and Algeria.

Tahboub added that the IAF, active since 1992, is one of Jordan’s oldest and most active political parties, and “has acceptance in the Jordanian street and among the Jordanian people”.

The party also notably broadened its base of support among the Jordanian tribes, those without Palestinian roots who are traditionally pro-monarchy and not aligned with Islamist movements.

Sharif noted that the government had been “grooming” two parties loyal to its policies - 'Mithaq' and 'Irada' - to eventually take the majority of votes and form the first parliamentary government. However, these government-curated parties trailed far behind the IAF, winning only four and three seats on the national list, respectively, - insignificant compared with the Islamists' 17 seats.

The government intended the loyalist parties to take the “lion’s share” of seats - a plan that was completely “derailed” after 7 October, Sharif said. “The Islamists were the ones who were actually mobilising closest to the street, expressing solidarity to what’s happening in Palestine, while the rest of the parties stood on the sidelines,” he stated. 

Amer Sabaileh, also an Amman-based political analyst, told The New Arab that the recent election reflects a failure of the state in “lobbying” for its parties.

“There was a big failure in the state narrative, the state tools, and their failure to convince anyone. It’s a disaster because sponsoring parties and pushing them to participate drains your resources…”

Power remains 'in the hands of the King' 

Although the electoral reforms have been applauded for their fairness compared to previous years, the parliamentarians will still have little sway over major policies, particularly Jordan’s foreign policy, Sabaileh noted. 

In 2022, when the government stamped the constitutional amendments to reform the electoral system they also formed a National Security Council, chaired by the King. Critics said the National Security Council granted more authority to the monarchy, particularly over foreign policy and national security matters.

Although the elected representatives in the Lower House rejected the creation of the monarch-chaired security council, it was passed by the Senate (upper house), whose 65 members are appointed by the King. 

“It is an absolute monarchy with a diplomatic cover,” Sabaileh said. “When it comes to real decision making, [including] foreign-policy decision making, there can be no interference. All the power is in the hands of the King,” he added. 

Shortly after the IAF election victory, Jordan’s prime minister, Bisher Khasawneh, resigned and King Abdullah II appointed his key palace aide Jafar Hassan in his place, who was educated in the US.

“The King wanted to give the new lower house a clean state and fresh start. The previous government had become notoriously unpopular and I think the King’s swift move was aimed at releasing pressure,” Sharif said.

The traditional conservative establishment has long been blamed for obstructing modernisation plans and entrenching the power of the Western-leaning monarch.

The IAF’s Tahboub, commenting on the party’s policy goals, noted that without being a majority in parliament, they will not be able to effectively move forward the policies they have suggested. “Hopefully we will reach what we always call for - a parliamentary government,” she stated. 

Still, she said that the Palestinian cause will remain the party’s priority. “Our view toward Palestine has never changed, but the current war on Gaza has strengthened it further,” Tahboub added. 

“We now view [Israel] increasingly as a genocidal entity… committing the most vicious crimes known to humanity. This gives us even further support to the solution to the occupation - freeing Palestine from the river to the sea.” 

Hanna Davis is a freelance journalist reporting on politics, foreign policy, and humanitarian affairs.

Follow her on Twitter: @hannadavis341