How Algeria is trapped in a presidential Groundhog Day

On 14 September, Algeria's incumbent president, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, was officially reelected in a landslide victory, securing over 80% of the vote. While such an emphatic win might suggest popularity, it rarely reflects a democratic race.

Since taking office following the low-turnout election in 2019, Tebboune, a former minister under President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, has increasingly mirrored his predecessor's style.

During the campaign, opponents withdrew, citing "unfair conditions," while those who opposed his politics were either tried under broad anti-terrorism laws or forced into exile.

For many Algerians, this election felt like déjà vu - a rerun of the four presidential victories of Bouteflika, who was ousted by the Hirak uprising just as he was gearing up for a fifth term.

Back then, the results of the presidential race were almost a formality; it was widely expected that Bouteflika, despite his declining health and reliance on a wheelchair, would remain in power.

Andrew G. Farrand, author of The Algerian Dream, suggests that Tebboune will likely follow in Bouteflika's footsteps.

"In Algeria, the political system fears change and prefers continuity," Farrand told The New Arab.

Post-independence: The military, Islamists, and politics

It's no secret that the military has played a godfather role in Algerian politics since independence.

After 132 years of colonisation, the FLN (National Liberation Front) and its military wing, the ALN (National Liberation Army), finally defeated French colonisation in 1962.

However, the leaders of the liberation movement then established a one-party state that ultimately drove the country into riots and civil war.

Ben Bella, Algeria's first president post-independence, was overthrown three years later by his defence minister Boumediene after failing to unite the various factions of the ALN. Boumediene governed until he died in 1978, after which he was succeeded by another ALN member, Chadli Bendjedid, who ended the one-party system but still rejected political competition.

However, in 1991, the military intervened to prevent the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) from coming to power, ousting Bendjedid and sparking a long, bloody civil war.

Bouteflika, who served as foreign minister in Boumediene's government, became president two decades later when the country sought to unite after the civil war. He stayed put, even as his health declined, with military leaders reportedly drafting his letters and decisions.

When Algeria gained independence, the ALN proclaimed the people as "the only hero," refusing to idolise individual militants.

Yet history tells a different tale. The ALN, whether in the foreground or background, has relied on its historical legitimacy to play a decisive role in the nation's political and economic direction for over half a century.

In 2019, however, the Algerian people took to the streets, chanting,  "The system is corrupt; all of you out!" The FLN's historical legitimacy was no longer enough to justify a faltering economy and the revolving door of presidential positions, all while the military maintained its upper hand.

As with most regional revolutions, the Algerian Hirak was quashed, resulting in the arrest of its leaders and a low-turnout election that ushered in Tebboune.

However, unlike his predecessors, Tebboune lacks charisma, charm, and public speaking skills, making him less than likeable - even among the military. "There are reports that some military leaders are critical of his potential," explains Farrand, a senior fellow in the Atlantic Council Middle East Initiatives.

During his first term, Tebboune made some decisions to regain the trust of sceptical military leaders. On 27 June, he signed a decree allowing military officers to hold high-ranking positions in sensitive state sectors concerning national sovereignty and interests.

This measure is expected to lead to "increased influence of the military in civilian spheres", warned Akram Kharief, a defence specialist, in an article for the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation.

Under Tebboune, the military seems more pivotal than ever as the leader has promoted narratives around perceived dangers from neighbouring Morocco, the Movement for the Autonomy of Kabylie (MAK), and the Islamist-conservative Rachad movement - both labelled as "terrorist" by authorities.

In line with these alleged threats, the defence budget surged to nearly $20 billion in 2023, making it the country's largest expenditure.

"In Algeria, the political system fears change and prefers continuity"

'No uprisings in the near future'

On Algerian streets, freedom of speech might not top the wish list, but what's essential for the country’s 45 million citizens is a better economy, more job opportunities, and higher salaries. The incumbent president has stumbled on all of these fronts.

Although Algeria's economy has grown at an annual rate of about four per cent over the past two years, it remains heavily reliant on gas to fund its social programs. This dependence renders the economy vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices, stifles job creation outside the hydrocarbon sector, and drains resources.

"Now there's no space for public debate in the country. At least during Bouteflika's era, there was some semblance of dialogue," Farrand told The New Arab.

The political expert argues that Algeria needs a free space for debate and political dialogue, especially regarding the struggles of a gas-rich country that still has to figure out how to unlock its full potential.

Currently, there are 228 prisoners of conscience in Algeria, most of whom have been charged with "terrorism" for criticising Tebboune's rule, according to human rights activist Zaki Hannache. Repression has deepened the apathy among the populace, who often refer to the political elite as a a "mafia".

Turnout for this election was less than 50%, according to official numbers. An article by the French daily Le Monde predicted the actual figure could be less than 25%.

Despite all this, the prospect of a new Hirak movement seems unlikely in Algeria to those familiar with its political dynamics.

"I don't think we'll see a new Hirak happening in the near future. At least that's not how the political dynamics in the country's history have played out," Farrand concludes.

Basma El Atti is The New Arab's Morocco correspondent.

Follow her on Twitter: @elattibasma