Could the Nile dam dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia escalate?

Egypt is playing a waiting game as Ethiopia prepares to make the fifth, and final, filling of its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) by the end of July.

Cairo has long feared that the infrastructure project will reduce its own water supplies from the Nile, Africa's longest river, which serves as a lifeline for the North African country's population of over 106 million.

The multibillion-dollar project is over 94 per cent complete and the fifth filling is expected to add 23 billion cubic metres of water to the dam's reservoir.

This will raise the amount of water stored in the reservoir to 64 billion cubic metres, creating an area 300 square kilometres larger than the size of Greater London.

Like in previous fillings, Ethiopia will undertake the fifth filling of the GERD's reservoir without coordination with neighbouring states Egypt and Sudan, leading to further diplomatic tensions.

The new filling could also exacerbate Egypt's water poverty at a time when water shortages are becoming the new normal in Egyptian cities, threatening to create a political backlash for the government of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, who described the GERD in May this year as an “existential threat” to his populous country.

End of diplomacy

Egypt abandoned the diplomatic track over the GERD in December last year, having categorised negotiations over the project as a “failure”, and accusing Ethiopia of wasting time until the dam is an irreversible fact on the ground.

Negotiations between Ethiopia, on one hand, and Egypt and Sudan, on the other, focused on the need to fill the dam's reservoir without causing significant harm to downstream states.

Egypt also wants Ethiopia to sign a legally binding deal on the operation of the dam, one that ensures the continued flow of water to downstream states.

This Egyptian demand derives from a 2015 Declaration of Principles signed by the leaders of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia, a document that calls for utilising the Nile for the benefit of the three states.

Ethiopia, however, considers the Egyptian demand for a legally binding agreement to be an encroachment on its sovereignty, believing that the dam will transform the living conditions of its population of over 123 million, almost half of whom lack access to electricity.

Nonetheless, the same project will likely cause massive economic devastation to Egypt, potentially annihilating its farmland and increasing its dependence on food imports.

Egypt's worries

Fears about the consequences of the GERD on Egypt's water and food security are palpable inside Egyptian state institutions.

Inside the Egyptian parliament, the issue of the controversial Ethiopian dam is at the centre of low-pitched debates.

"The GERD's new filling spreads fear among Egyptians who consider the dam catastrophic for their country," Ehab Ramzi, a member of the House of Deputies (lower chamber of parliament), told The New Arab.

"The MPs call on the government and the political leadership to find solutions to this problem, especially after the failure of all diplomatic efforts," he added.

Sisi has repeatedly warned in recent years that there would be severe consequences if Egypt’s water supply from the Nile, estimated at 55.5 billion cubic metres annually, was affected by the dam.

In March this year, Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources, Hani Sweilam, warned that any damage to his country from Ethiopia’s dam would come at a cost.

"Any dam construction along the Nile affects Egypt," the minister said. "Some impacts are manageable, others are not. Ethiopia will pay for any impact on Egypt one day."

Pressuring Egypt

The Egyptian minister did not mention how his country would make Ethiopia pay for any harm caused by the GERD.

But amid official silence on the Ethiopian dam is the possibility that the issue has already been referred to Egypt's security establishment, including the intelligence agency and the Armed Forces, to consider measures to prevent the dam from threatening Egypt's survival.

Cairo's worries are rooted in the widespread belief that Ethiopia has designed the dam for more than just electricity generation.

"Ethiopia wants to twist Egypt's arm and the dam's size tells this clearly," Diaeddine al-Qousi, a former advisor to the Egyptian minister of irrigation, told The New Arab.

"The Ethiopians apparently want to turn the Nile into an internal lake and then ask riparian states to pay the price of the water they receive from this river," he added.

"Cairo has long feared that the infrastructure project will reduce its own water supplies from the Nile"

Fighting alone

Current and possible future effects from the dam have forced Egypt to embark on a costly adaptation programme, one that includes the construction of a series of desalination facilities and wastewater treatment plants.

This programme aims to prepare Egypt for the expected drop in water revenues from the Nile, especially at times of extreme drought.  

Effects from the GERD compound the toll climate change is having on Egypt, a country whose Mediterranean coast is under threat of being submerged because of the expected climate change-induced rise in sea levels.

Any such rise also threatens to inundate the Nile Delta, a farmland area that produces most of Egypt's food.

These potential calamities also come at a time when Egypt is fighting for its water rights alone, especially with Sudan, a comrade in arms during most of the past decade, being torn apart by civil war.

Such conditions raise questions about what Egypt can actually do to prevent the dam from threatening its interests.

Ultimately, whether the dam will cause harm to Egypt or not will depend on how Ethiopia operates it when construction is complete.

However, in case of significant harm and continued Ethiopian intransigence, Cairo, which sought United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and African Union (AU) intervention on the issue in recent years, will likely not take action before the presidential elections in the US in November this year.

A win by former president and current Republican presidential candidate, Donald Trump, will most probably be good news for decision-makers in Cairo.

In 2020, Trump sponsored a drive to bring Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt together and was close to hammering out a deal on filling the dam's reservoir and its operation.  

Trump, who, as a presidential candidate in 2016 cited “good chemistry” with the Egyptian president, alluded in October 2020 to the possibility of Egypt blowing up the dam.

"It's a very dangerous situation because Egypt is not going to be able to live that way," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

"They'll end up blowing the dam. And I said it and say it loud and clear – they'll blow up that dam. And they have to do something," he added.

In Cairo, experts suggest other options, including political and legal ones.

"Cairo has its own calculations and puts all options on the table," Tarek Fahmi, a political science professor at Cairo University, told The New Arab.

"It still leaves the negotiation door ajar, but there is an urgent need for a new formula that preserves Egypt's water rights as a whole," he added.

Amr Emam is a Cairo-based journalist. He has contributed to the New York Times, San Francisco Chronicle, and Al Majalla.

Follow him on Twitter: @dreamyworld33