Can Iraq's new government survive?

After more than one year of political stalemate, the Iraqi parliament on 28 October approved a new consensus government led by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who has pledged to hold early elections "within a year", fight corruption, build a strong economy, and eradicate poverty and unemployment.

For Iraqis, the most pressing issue is whether Sudani will be able to translate his pledges into concrete gains, otherwise, he will likely face the same fate as Iraq’s ex-PM Adil Abdul Mahdi, who was forced to resign following the October 2019 protests during which security forces and Iran-backed militias killed more than 600 protestors and wounded thousands more.

"The Iraqi people have grown accustomed to thousands of unfulfilled promises by successive governments and corrupt politicians"

Since the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, which implemented a sectarian power-sharing system among the country’s Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish populations, the Iraqi people have grown accustomed to thousands of unfulfilled promises by successive governments and corrupt politicians.

Al-Sudani, 52, who holds a bachelor's degree in agricultural sciences, held several posts and ministerial portfolios under Iraq’s former PM Nouri al-Maliki, including the minister of human rights in 2010, and the minister of labour and social affairs in 2014. Maliki is seen by many as Sudani’s patron, since he was his pick for Iraq’s top post.

Security is Sudani’s first challenge following the killing of US national Stephen Edward Troell, an aid worker, in Baghdad on 7 November. Iraqi security sources said that the killing was planned in advance, with Ashab Al-Kahfm, an obscure pro-Iran group, claiming responsibility in "retaliation" for the killing of Qasem Soleiman and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis in 2020.

“Media outlets run by Iran-backed groups have justified the killing by claiming that the targeted civilian was a spy,” Hamdi Malik and Michael Knights, fellows specialising in Shia militias and the military and security affairs of Iraq and Iran at The Washington Institute for Near East, wrote in a recent piece.

Another step by Sudani that puts his resolve to combat corruption under question came on Sunday after he appointed Judge Haider Hanoun Zair as the head of Iraq’s Integrity Commission. The move backfired after it emerged Zair was sacked from his previous post as the president of the Maysan Appeal Court on financial and administrative corruption charges on 23 August 2016. 

Hussein Muenis, head of al-Huquq (rights) bloc in the Iraqi parliament tweeted that, “While the Iraqi state needs to be purified from the filth of the corrupt and robbers of public monies, the person who has been sacked on corruption charges on 23 August 2016, today has been re-appointed as head of Iraq’s integrity commission”. 

The media office of Judge Faiq Zaidan, head of Iraq’s supreme judicial court, described the charges against Zair as “untrue accusations”. Zair is a leader in the pro-Iran al-Fatih Alliance headed by Hadi al-Amiri.

“Iraq is not a united country where its income and resources return to one place. Rather, it is a scattered state where foreign countries are interfering in its affairs,” Aziz Rauf, a Kurdish writer and teacher at Jihan University, told The New Arab.

Whether Sudani’s cabinet can tackle wide-scale and systematic corruption since 2003 or protect the sovereignty of law remains to be seen.

"Let us wait and see what Sudani can do in a complex situation like Iraq. Sudani’s government faces a complex position where governance is uneasy, and eradicating corruption and doing reforms is a very hard task,” Rauf added.  

Sudani, a Shia Iraqi politician from the south-eastern Maysan Governorate, was elected following one year of infighting between powerful Iraqi Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and pro-Iran factions in the Coordination Framework.

Iraq held an early election on 10 October 2021, in which al-Sadr won a majority with 73 seats in the election and vowed to form a "national majority" government with several Sunni and Kurdish blocs, signalling disagreements with other pro-Iran Shia blocs.

"Iraq is not a united country where its income and resources return to one place. Rather, it is a scattered state where foreign countries are interfering in its affairs"

Failing in his efforts to fulfil his promise to supporters, however, Sadr ordered lawmakers from his bloc to resign, which all of his MPs did on 12 June. The Coordination Framework replaced Sadr's MPs with their own, becoming the biggest bloc in the Iraqi parliament.

The new prime minister had the backing of the Coalition for the Administration of the State, which is an alliance of powerful pro-Iran Shia factions, Sunni factions led by parliament speaker Mohammed al-Halbusi, and two key Kurdish parties.

Of the 21 ministries nominated, 12 posts go to Shia parties supported by the Coordination Framework, six to Sunni leaders, four to Kurds and one to a Christian woman - one of three women in the new government.

Of the two main Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) runs the ministries of foreign affairs and reconstruction, while the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) runs the ministry of justice and says the ministry of environment - which is still vacant- should come under its control.

Sudani so far has not appointed a new head of Iraq’s national intelligence, and he is occupying the post temporarily. On social media, some have alleged that the killing of Troll was a message to Sudani by a pro-Iran militia group that wants control of Iraq’s national intelligence.

Rauf also indicated that the new government does not mean the end of the power struggle between the Sadr and Coordination Framework camps, which spilt into deadly clashes in August.

“Governance in Iraq is very difficult, the first challenge that Sudani’s government faces is the possible resumption of demonstrations by Sadr’s supporters at any moment. I think in order for Iraq to be stabilised, Sudani should establish good diplomatic relations with regional countries as well as the US, as all have key roles in Iraq," Rauf added.

"Sudani needs to treat the realities on the ground very rationally, pave the way for early elections, and reduce the interference of the militias. If he would be able to prevent a bloody civil war in Iraq, and provide basic services to the Iraqis, I think his tenure will be good.”   

Dana Taib Menmy is The New Arab's Iraq Correspondent, writing on issues of politics, society, human rights, security, and minorities.

Follow him on Twitter: @danataibmenmy