Can China broker a new era of Palestinian political unity?

On 23 July, Hamas, Fatah, and a dozen other Palestinian groups gathered in China to sign the Beijing Declaration. In doing so, they agreed to “ending division and strengthening Palestinian unity”.

This is to be done through the formation of an interim national reconciliation government, which will bear responsibility for overseeing the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories and later holding general elections.

Following a Hamas-Fatah meeting held in Beijing in April, this was the second time in which representatives of the two Palestinian factions convened in China this year to discuss resolving their old animosities.

In addition to Hamas and Fatah, the other Palestinian factions which took part were Islamic Jihad, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine, the Palestinian People’s Party, the Palestinian Popular Struggle Front, the Palestinian National Initiative, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command, the Palestine Democratic Union, the Palestine Liberation Front, the Arab Liberation Front, the Palestinian Arab Front, and the Thunderbolt Forces.

Hailed by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi as a “historic moment for the cause of Palestine’s liberation,” Chinese officials are portraying the Beijing Declaration as China’s most recent diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East, building on the Saudi-Iranian diplomatic deal signed in Beijing last year.

“The core outcome is that the [Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO)] is the sole legitimate representative of all Palestinian people,” declared Wang. “An agreement has been reached on post-Gaza war governance and the establishment of a provisional national reconciliation government,” he added.

“The national factions agreed during their meetings in China to reach a comprehensive Palestinian national unity that includes all Palestinian forces and factions within the framework of the PLO, and to commit to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital, in accordance with UN resolutions, and to guarantee the right of return in accordance with Resolution 194,” read the statement put out by the 14 Palestinian groups.

“Based on the National Accord Agreement signed in Cairo on 4 May 2011, and the Algeria Declaration signed on 12 October 2022, the factions decided to continue the implementation of the agreements to end the division with the help of Egypt, Algeria, China and Russia,” it added.

China's national interests

Beijing’s motivations for bringing these Palestinian factions together to sign the declaration are important to realise. As a rising power in an increasingly multipolar world, China has high stakes in the Middle East, where regional states began a ‘Look East’ geo-economic pivot many years ago.

The Middle East is important to Beijing’s interests and China’s overall position on the international stage, particularly within the context of intensifying great power competition. Policymakers in Beijing care a lot about China’s image in this part of the world and how it distinguishes itself from that of the US and other Western countries.

“China wants to be seen as the creator and mediator of peace in the Middle East. If China is able to succeed in this daunting mission, where all other great powers have failed, it would substantiate China’s claim for leadership and the superiority of the Chinese model of peacemaking,” Yun Sun, a senior fellow and director of the China program and co-director of the East Asia program of the Stimson Center, told The New Arab.

Dr Andrea Ghiselli, Head of Research of the TOChina Hub’s ChinaMed Project, explained that the Sino-American rivalry is one important reason China had for facilitating the Beijing Declaration.

 “China is fully aware how much the Palestinian issue is a sore spot for US foreign and domestic politics,” he told TNA.

Some of the dynamics that helped explain why Beijing was key to the Saudi-Iran diplomatic agreement of March 2023 were relevant to the declaration signed by Palestinian groups this month.

Beijing’s balanced position in the Middle East enabled China to bring Saudi Arabia and Iran together to sign their renormalisation agreement last year. By contrast, the US and other Western countries with anti-Iranian foreign policies couldn’t do so given their lack of any influence over Tehran.

Similarly, more than nine months into Israel’s war on Gaza, the US and its Western allies are far too supportive of Israel and opposed to Hamas to have any diplomatic clout with a Gaza-based faction.

However, despite having a close relationship with Israel, China has not taken a hostile stance toward Hamas, which Beijing has never considered a terrorist organisation. Hamas’ views and attitudes toward China were key to the Asian giant’s ability to facilitate the Beijing Declaration.

The Middle East is of immense geostrategic importance to Beijing. The region provides China with critical sources of energy, plays an important role in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and is a part of the world that has deep trade and investment ties with the Asian giant.

Mouin Rabbani, a political analyst and co-editor of Jadaliyya, noted the Middle East’s significance when it comes to the US and other Western powers’ quest to counter Beijing and limit China’s access to certain markets.

"It demonstrates that China is both willing and able to increase its diplomatic role in the region and thus expand its presence in the Middle East, and its influence, beyond its economic relationships"

“The draft Saudi-Israeli normalisation agreement, for example, which is for all intents and purposes a bilateral Saudi-US treaty, places multiple restrictions on Saudi relations with China, and this is viewed as one of its primary objectives,” he told TNA.

“China is essentially announcing that it is challenging the US monopoly on Middle East diplomacy, and that the strength of its economy entitles it to play a role that goes beyond trade. By playing a diplomatic role and making itself useful to regional states it is also seeking to insulate its economic interests against efforts against such states to reduce their (economic and security) relations with China,” commented Rabbani.

The Beijing Declaration constitutes an important diplomatic achievement for China, highlighting their ability to bring these opposing Palestinian groups together in Beijing for a meeting that produced this joint declaration.

“It demonstrates that China is both willing and able to increase its diplomatic role in the region and thus expand its presence in the Middle East, and its influence, beyond its economic relationships,” Rabbani told TNA.

“China views itself as a global power, and as such believes that like others its economic strength should be reflected in the political arena,” he added.

Yet, this diplomatic accomplishment vis-à-vis the Palestinian groups is not just about China’s standing in the Middle East. It is important to see the Beijing Declaration within the context of China’s image and interests worldwide too.

Views and attitudes of policymakers and citizens in Western countries matter in ways that Beijing cares about, particularly within the context of Sino-Russian relations and the 29-month-old conflict in Ukraine which Beijing has carefully navigated.

“By taking the Palestinians’ side, Beijing is not adopting a uniquely Chinese position, but one that is shared by many around the world both in the West and in the Global South. As such, it allows it to score important diplomatic points against its strategic competitor while also easing a bit the pressure coming from its relations with Russia, which have become a critical issue in Sino-European relations,” Dr Ghiselli told TNA.

Expectations for the Beijing Declaration

It is not necessarily easy to determine what this Chinese initiative will likely do in practice to change Hamas-Fatah relations. Whereas past reconciliation efforts have failed, it is unclear what would make this one successful.

“China has significant diplomatic and economic clout, and it can provide powerful incentives for people to stick to their words. The question is if and how much Beijing will want to provide those incentives. I think only time will tell how effective Chinese diplomats were,” Dr Ghiselli told TNA.

It is probably most realistic to see the Beijing Declaration as merely the first step in a longer process of Palestinian reconciliation, rather than the moment that Hamas-Fatah animosities suddenly resolved.

“I think China is able to rally the groups together to forge some consensus, but I doubt that the differences between Hamas and Fatah [will be] completely removed because of this one declaration. There is still a very long way to go. But China’s influence and economic resources do give all the parties the incentive to come to Beijing and agree to some fundamentals,” noted Sun.

“No one should bear the illusion, including the Chinese, that one meeting and one document can remove the decades-long problems and challenges within the Palestinian movement. The Beijing Declaration is a good beginning, but it’s not the end of the process,” she added.

Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics.

Follow him on Twitter: @GiorgioCafiero