Cairo conference marks a milestone, but Sudan's road to peace remains uncertain

Rival Sudanese stakeholders convened in Cairo on Saturday to chart a roadmap for a lasting ceasefire in Sudan, marking the first such conference since the conflict erupted nearly 15 months ago.

The meeting brought together the army-aligned Democratic Bloc, which includes several militant groups and civilian political organisations, and the neutral Coordination of Civil Democratic Forces, also known as Taqaddum.

Despite the Democratic Bloc's refusal to hold joint sessions with Taqaddum - accusing the movement, led by former Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok, of sympathising with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) - all attendees collectively called for re-establishing the Sudanese state based on the principles of justice, freedom, and peace.

According to a United Nations (UN) report, the war in Sudan, which erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has claimed the lives of up to 150,000 civilians, according to US special envoy for Sudan Tom Perriello, and displaced 10 million people.

The Sudanese civil war, now in its second year, comes in the aftermath of the December 2018 revolution, which toppled Omar al-Bashir’s regime. In its stead, Sudanese factions agreed to a power-sharing arrangement between the Forces of Freedom and Change coalition and the military, led by Army Commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) Commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti.

In October 2021, this partnership faltered when military leaders ousted the civilian coalition and then Prime Minister Hamdok, establishing a new authority with civilian allies from former rebel movements, including leaders such as Gibril Ibrahim, Minni Minawi, and Malik Agar.

According to political analyst Mahir Abugoukh, after a year of political turmoil, al-Burhan and Hemedti nearly signed an agreement to complete the transitional phase, but the army commander’s refusal led to the outbreak of war.

“As a consequence, the Democratic Bloc, the National Movement Forces Alliance, and the Coalition of Forces of National Compromise supported the SAF post-conflict,” he said.

In October 2023, the Forces of Freedom and Change, representing the ruling coalition during the revolution, formed a broader alliance with civil and trade union forces under the umbrella of Taqaddum, appointing Hamdok as the coalition leader and declaring their neutrality in the war.

Taqaddum’s condemnation of both the RSF and SAF and insistence that both parties must be held accountable for war crimes against the Sudanese people prompted SAF leaders to accuse the coalition of being the political arm of the RSF, especially after Hamdok and Hemedti met in Addis Ababa in January and signed a joint declaration to work towards an end to the war.

The two political factions agreed only to establish a limited subcommittee tasked with drafting a final communique advocating for an end to the conflict.

The communique would advocate for an immediate cessation of hostilities and the formation of a joint committee to enhance dialogue and oversight. Yet, despite initial agreement on the need to address the humanitarian crisis and condemn the violations committed during the ongoing war, three Democratic Bloc leaders - Federal Finance Minister Jibril Ibrahim, Darfur Region Governor Minni Minawi, and Sovereign Council Deputy Chairman Malik Agar - declined to sign the closing statement.

“The establishment of a thorough, collaborative mechanism with Taqaddum is difficult at the time,” Mohammed Zakaria, the spokesperson for the Democratic Bloc, told The New Arab. “It would be unrealistic to call for a ceasefire when the RSF is still ravaging civilians and support for RSF from certain regional actors remains flowing.”

The United Arab Emirates has been accused of providing support to the RSF, an allegation deemed credible by United Nations (UN) experts, despite denials from the UAE.

Currently, Minawi and Jibril's troops are engaged in combat alongside the SAF against the RSF in El Fasher, the historical capital of Darfur. The city has been engulfed in inter-communal fighting, leading to widespread destruction and numerous civilian casualties.

Analyst Abugoukh condemned the Sudan Liberation Movement, the Justice and Equality Movement, and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement for not supporting the statement.

“There’s a clear line between those who call for peace and those who pretend to,” he says. “Pro-military factions initially approved the statement but later withdrew their support. It’s a clear breach of their initial agreement, but it showed the Sudanese people how elements of the Bashir regime, who were marginalised by a popular revolution before the war's outbreak, still have a say in Sudan’s future.”

Political analyst Tahir Satti, in disagreement, pointed out that the conference failed to address the horrendous crimes committed by the RSF and its political supporters.

“This led some political factions to refuse to endorse the concluding statement,” he added. “While the conference could pave the way for a broad civil coalition to unite warring parties and expedite a peaceful resolution, it might not suffice to halt the ongoing war.

“Regional and international actors are increasingly involved in the Sudanese civil war, exacerbating the deepening animosity between SAF and RSF, amid chaotic circumstances marked by violations, pillaging, and civilian mistreatment by the RSF.”

Hamdok dismissed allegations linking the coalition to the RSF, stating that he was awaiting confirmation from the army to schedule a meeting to talk about Sudan’s peace roadmap.

“A crisis this complicated and deep is not expected to end in one meeting… The lesson is for us to be patient and to build on anything positive that comes out of it,” he told Reuters.

Despite these challenges, almost all participants acknowledged that the Cairo summit marked a significant step towards unifying the Sudanese political position to end the ongoing conflict.

According to Mubarak Al-Fadil, leader of the Umma Party and the National Consensus Alliance, the key outcome of the conference is the distinction between “halting the war and creating a political roadmap for Sudan's future”.

“This separation prevents the post-war transitional period from facing the same challenges that led to previous failures and conflict,” he said. “It would prevent the RSF from demanding power and military control in exchange for complying with the Jeddah Declaration and ensuring the capital's safety.”

Bakry Aljack, the spokesperson for Taqaddum, expressed optimism about the potential of the Cairo Conference to pave the way for future dialogue.

“The conference's outcomes are crucial in this initial phase,” he states. “The unification of political forces can pressure both warring parties,” adding that an agreement on a civil political project, based on the Sudanese people's vision, is a powerful force that undermines the logic of war and is harmful to all parties involved.

Zakaria agrees, stating that “what was agreed upon in Cairo can establish a Sudanese dialogue leading to an end to the war”.

Mohamed Mustafa is a Sudanese journalist and political analyst with over 16 years of experience. His work focuses on the political, economic, and strategic landscapes in Sudan

This article is published in collaboration with Egab.