Turkey's instability and the EU

The question of Turkey's accession to the EU resurfaced with Angela Merkel's visit to Ankara.

Europe is offering easier visa terms, along with reconsidering the eligibility of Turkey for membership in the EU - in exchange for limiting the influx of migrants through Turkish borders.

With Turkey recognising itself to be in a position of greater bargaining power than previously, Erdogan set stringent requirements for proceeding with the talks. In response to the EU, Erdogan requested resolving once and for all the Cyprus problem that has persisted for more than three decades.

In addition, whereas the EU requires placing limits on migrant populations' access to Europe through Turkish borders, the issue of migrants in Turkey remains unaddressed.

But though the negotiations appear to have moved past these preliminary hurdles, Turkey has other considerations that might affect any agreement.

Instability in Turkey

The recent Ankara bombings that targeted a peaceful pro-Kurdish march have unmasked the extent of the political crisis within Turkey. Less than two weeks before legislative elections, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) still finds itself unable to assert its presence as a majority.

The Ankara attacks have raised serious questions over the government's policies, which appear to have helped HDP's chances

Erdogan's decision to include the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and leftist groups in his battle against terror appears to have backfired.

Whereas Erdogan intended to reduce the votes received by the main Kurdish parties and their allies represented by the HDP, it remains questionable whether any of those tactics will influence voters.

In fact, recent polls continue to show a failure to acquire the simple majority necessary to continue to have full control of the government. Moreover, the Ankara attacks have raised serious questions over the government's policies, which appear to have helped HDP's chances.

The PKK, meanwhile, has attempted to ensure that the violent conflict with the Turkish state does not affect voters in Kurdish regions.

Accordingly, the PKK announced a halt to all military operations against Turkish military targets for the purpose of ensuring that Kurdish regions remain safe for the electoral body during the coming elections.

The AKP stands in a difficult position. First, Russia's intervention in Syria has significantly limited Ankara's capacity to be active on Syrian soil. Erdogan's repeated call for a safe zone in northern Syria serves a dual purpose.

On the one hand, the aim is to limit the degree of autonomy that the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) has acquired in Syria, thus arresting their persistent work towards founding a Kurdish region within Syrian territory on Turkish borders.

On the other, Erdogan intends to maintain a safe area that would be used for offering further support for "moderate" Syrian groups battling the regime. Accordingly, any covert military activity taking place in that region would be protected from the regime's offences - under the guise of a safe zone for refugees.

But with Russia's direct intervention in the conflict, the AKP finds itself at a loss as to what measures ought to be taken to limit Kurdish activity, especially with the approaching deadline of the elections.

EU accession talks 

Given the circumstances, the accession talks could be compromised by the political and security instability in Turkey. If the AKP is willing to move towards an agreement with the EU, this might require conceding to rival political parties, and thus ending a dominance that has lasted thirteen years.

The accession talks could be compromised by the political and security instability in Turkey

The AKP has so far been willing to jeopardise Turkish stability - beginning with the covert support provided to extremist factions in Syria, along with the continued military operations against the PKK.

The AKP, however, is now faced with a choice of either transforming its policies to render them more inclusive and thus allowing for some degree of stability to ensue, or to continue with its attempt to monopolise rule in Turkey.

But Erdogan appears to be choosing yet another path. Any progress in the EU accession talks might be spun by Erdogan as his own personal victory. This could be enough to provide the AKP with the majority required to maintain its hold on the government.

The AKP has chosen to follow a dangerous strategy, and whereas Turkey is still relatively protected from the regional chaos, a significant change in policy needs to be undertaken to ensure these conditions persist.

Its exclusionary strategies in domestic Turkish politics and its political choices in supporting extremist groups abroad have rendered it hostile to many of the Turkish political parties and the warring factions in Syria. The upcoming elections will determine whether any change in these conditions will follow.

Karim Barakat is an instructor of philosophy in the American University of Beirut. 

Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of al-Araby al-Jadeed, its editorial board or staff.