A terrifying scenario for the Egyptian Sinai

Let is allow our imagination to run wild and assume a scary scenario that some believe impossible.

The events in our wounded neighbour, Syria, over the past three years have pushed us to consider this scenario and take it seriously.

This imaginary scenario assumes the expansion of Sinai's Salafi-Jihadi groups towards the Gaza Strip, their removal of borders - as happened between Iraq and Syria - and the establishment of an emirate affiliated with the Islamic State group (IS, formerly known as Isis).

Some might believe this scenario to be unlikely given the current strength of the Egyptian army in Sinai and the strength of Hamas in Gaza.

However, we have to remember what took place in Syria and Iraq over the past few years, as no one would have imagined that self-styled "jihadi" groups could expand and control large tracts of land and establish a state.

In other words, what might be impossible this year could well be possible in a few years. To put it more clearly, this scenario could become a reality if the US and Israel facilitate it.

They need not actually conspire to achieve it, but they are capable of creating the conditions that lead to this development.

The US and Israel have two possible interests in realising this situation. Firstly, it would lead to a conflict between jihadi groups on the one hand and Hamas and other resistance factions on the other, which would mean Gaza's armed groups would be distracted fighting jihadis instead of Israel.

Secondly, Israel would benefit from such a situation to market its propaganda, which claims Gaza is a terrorist hotspot and needs to be eradicated.

If such a scenario were to become real, it would turn legitimate resistance into a destructive internal conflict.

The Salafi-Jihadist groups, on the other hand, do not view fighting Israel as a priority, as, to them, it appears no different from Arab countries governed by non-Islamic systems.

An interview with a Palestinian member of the IS published by the group's Aamaq news agency in October 2014 reveals the real priority for jihadists, which is the overthrow of Arab rulers and the establishment of a caliphate.

Perhaps another cause for real concern from this scenario is the spread of Salafi-Jihadist thought in Sinai.

Furthermore, these groups consider Palestinian factions, especially Hamas, to be heretics. Jihadi internet message boards and websites are full of attacks against Hamas, which they accuse of refusing to implement Islamic law and fighting the "monotheists", as they call themselves.

These groups have also been involved in bloody confrontations with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, in which scores have been killed and injured. Therefore, the growing influence of these groups in Sinai is definitely a bad sign for Gaza, as they are attempting to increase their influence in the strip.

If such a scenario were to become reality, God forbid, it would be a Palestinian nightmare.

It would turn the legitimate Palestinian resistance against Israel into a destructive internal conflict, destroying the Palestinian national movement of which Gaza is the main element.

The events in the region require us as Arabs to assume the worst possible scenarios, no matter how terrifying, to take steps to protect the security of the Arab nation. It is clear that the main objective of the United States and Israel is to engulf the region in devastating civil wars; so Palestinian officials and intellectuals need to carefully study the course of the Syrian revolution and learn from the events that are taking place there.

Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of al-Araby al-Jadeed, its editorial board or staff.

This is an edited translation from our Arabic edition.