As prospects of wider war with Israel loom, what is Lebanon's plan for displaced communities?

In recent weeks, following the assassination of Hezbollah leader Fouad Shukr in a Beirut suburb, Lebanon has intensified its wartime preparations amid growing fears of a full-scale regional conflict. The August attack prompted the Lebanese government to prepare an emergency plan to prepare for such a scenario.

According to senior Lebanese officials, the country's wartime preparations include identifying and designating safe zones for displaced civilians and stockpiling essential supplies like food, water, and medical resources. However, critics are raising questions about the country's readiness to face an expansive war with Israel.

Over the last five years, Lebanon has weathered one catastrophe after another, yet according to analysts, it is currently facing its toughest test.

The Gaza war has spilled over into southern Lebanon, where the Israeli military and Hezbollah are exchanging blows.

Fatima, a displaced woman from the town of Aita al-Shaab in southern Lebanon, is one of at least 100,000 southern Lebanese who have fled their homes to find shelter further north since the fighting started in October. She found refuge in a school designated for displaced persons in Tyre, but the declining humanitarian situation is pushing her to lose hope.

"Returning to my village feels like a distant dream, and while the support we receive here is lifesaving, it remains limited," she told The New Arab. "We try to hold on to hope and support each other in these difficult times. It's all that we have."

As of 8 August, according to the United Nations, Israel has killed 120 civilians, including 20 children, destroyed more than 3,000 buildings, and scorched 1,700 hectares of arable land in Lebanon.

The worst-case scenario

In an interview with TNA, Nasser Yassin, Lebanon's Minister of Environment and head of the government emergency committee, confirmed that the country is working on an emergency plan that considers the possibility of a full-scale war, including worst-case scenarios such as the displacement of over one million Lebanese, akin to what occurred during the July 2006 war.

"The plan focuses on securing essential and urgent needs to accommodate the large numbers of displaced individuals," he said.

Efforts are underway to meet the needs of these displaced persons in cooperation with international organisations and local governors.

"The gravest scenario involves widespread displacement, for which 200 shelters are prepared to ensure necessities such as food, health, and sanitation," Yassin explained. "However, these centres are intended for short-term stays and are not designed for prolonged occupation."

A joint team from several ministries, the Disaster Management Unit, and international organisations is gradually assessing these makeshift camps. However, the senior official admitted that despite all preparations, "no one is fully prepared to confront the Israeli war machine entirely."

Regarding food supplies for the displaced, Yassin told TNA that stockpiles had been secured from the Relief Committee, the South Council, and the World Food Programme (WFP), sufficient to cover the needs of 50,000 to 100,000 people in the first few days of the conflict. This stockpile, however, is "insufficient" in the case of one million displaced persons.

According to a statement in August by the Director General of the Ministry of Economy and Trade, Mohammad Abu Haidar, food stockpiles are enough to sustain Lebanon for "three to four months."

Former MP Ali Darwish agrees that the government could handle displacement costs within its current budget, as there are enough raw materials to support the population for the first few months. However, he questioned whether Lebanon would have sufficient international support if a war involving multiple countries broke out.

Yassin told TNA that international support is not to be counted on, as external financial support for the current response program remains below the required level, with only about 35 percent of needs met over the past ten months.

As for Syrian refugees in border areas, the minister stated that the government is currently coordinating with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to assume responsibility for their welfare in collaboration with international organisations, while the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) would oversee the affairs of Palestinians in Lebanon.

"The plan prioritises housing displaced Lebanese from threatened areas, giving precedence to Lebanese over the Syrians," Darwish said. "Specific areas already have been identified to accommodate only Lebanese and address their needs in the event of war."

"Our government is not at all prepared for repeated disasters."

MP Najat Saliba told TNA that while the government is "obligated to fulfil its duties," it faces significant challenges due to the recurring crises Lebanon has experienced since 2019 across social, economic, political, and military fronts.

"Governments typically develop emergency plans to deal with a single event, but in Lebanon, it's one crisis after another, making it difficult for the government to prepare adequately," she said. "We're trying to reassure people that we're ready, but our government is not at all prepared for repeated disasters."

Journalist and political writer Amin Qamouria echoed Saliba's concerns in an interview with TNA, highlighting the worsening situation across most state institutions in Lebanon.

"War requires extensive preparations, including the storage of water and medicines, but the Lebanese state is not fully equipped to meet these needs, despite efforts to secure basic services like hospitals and the import of essential goods," he said, adding that external support might be limited due to concerns about the misuse of aid.

According to Saliba, the state's budget for 2024 is only US$3 billion, with 40 percent of it directed toward salaries, severely restricting the resources available for crisis management.

"The budget simply cannot cover the additional expenses in the event of a war with Israel unless the government can secure additional funding from external sources," she said, noting that Lebanon is not receiving attention from the international community.

Commenting on the government's response, Saliba noted that the current economic situation vastly differs from 2006 when salaries were significantly higher.

"Today, many people earn only US$100, insufficient to cover even basic necessities. While the Lebanese people are always willing to help others, their ability to do so is now severely limited," she added.

On the other hand, Darwish stated that a plan based on the 2006 war scenario could be considered reasonable in addressing basic needs such as shelter and essentials for the displaced, but "it is not 100 percent comprehensive."

This article is published in collaboration with Egab.