The UK elections: How will the coming days unfold?

The UK heads to the polls on Thursday, in a historic election that is forecast to end 14 years of Conservative government.

Owing to the UK's unique political system, the handover of power is not a straightforward one, with a number of rules and conventions dictating the process.

We look at how things should roll out over the coming days.

Thursday, 4 July

Polling stations across the UK will open at 7am and close at 10pm on Thursday, while as many as one-in-five voters have already cast their votes by post.

There are 650 seats in the House of Commons up for grabs with 4,515 candidates representing a record number of 98 parties, according to AFP.

Many of these are independents or from leftist parties, running on a strong pro-Palestine platform, given the ongoing horrors unfolding in Gaza.

Despite the backlash over its policies on Gaza, Labour are still expected to win by a massive majority with projections that they could take as many as 466 seats and the Tories as few as 78. 

A central estimate from YouGov has Labour on 431 seats, the Conservatives on 102, and the Liberal Democrats on 72, while the right-wing Reform UK party are tipped to win three seats.

An exit poll around 10pm will give an idea of which way the election will go, based on fieldwork from 133 polling stations.

This system is significantly more accurate than models in the past with selected people now casting an anonymous vote rather than giving a verbal indication of which party they backed.

Friday, 5 July

Results will begin to come in from 10pm Thursday with a clearer picture by early Friday morning although some results will not be available until later in the day. In previous British elections in 2019, St Ives was the last constituency to declare with results coming in at 3pm the following day.

By 5am it will be clear who is the winner and if polling is correct, then at this point Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will likely call his opponent, Labour leader Keir Starmer, to concede defeat.

Starmer is expected to make a short victory speech at his constituency, Holborn & St Pancras South in London, before heading to his party's headquarters to celebrate with staff and supporters.

If this goes as expected, Sunak will officially tender his resignation to King Charles III later on Friday, and shortly after, Starmer will meet the monarch and take up his invitation to become the next prime minister and form the next government.

The transfer or power, and house keys for 10 Downing Street, will also take place that morning, with Sunak likely leaving the prime minister's residence Friday morning.

Speeches will be made at the iconic Westminster street, while the new prime minister will receive calls from world leaders congratulating him on his win.

Friday afternoon-onwards

Political commentators will be watching the results of constituencies where Conservative ministers and key Labour MPs are running, which will decide who will be in the next government and which MPs take up positions in the shadow cabinet.

Starmer will have had time to prepare names for the next government and they will be announced over the coming 48 hours. The key posts of Chancellor of the Exchequer (equivalent to a finance minister), Foreign Secretary, and Home Secretary, and others could be announced on Friday.

Starmer will also move into Number 10 over the next few days, likely on Saturday morning, while the Chancellor of the Exchequer will take up residence at Number 11.

The new cabinet will then begin to take over government responsibilities, usually via 'red boxes' which include important papers brought forward by the previous administration.

After this, the new government's policies will take shape and a number of important announcements by the prime minister and his team will be expected over the coming days, weeks and months.