Explainer: Is Saudi Arabia keen on normalising relations with Israel?

Saudi Arabia's recent announcement to appoint an Ambassador to Palestine must be understood within the broader context of an effort by the United States to effect significant change in the Middle East.

Currently, the Biden administration is taking a two-track approach in the region: normalising relations between its two allies in the area, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Israel, while also seeking an informal agreement with Iran regarding its nuclear program.

If realised, this would represent a significant foreign policy win and boost Biden's reelection campaign next year. 

A former Israeli official described the Saudi decision to appoint an ambassador to Palestine as a "clear statement of the seriousness of the Saudis towards the Palestinians". 

Last week, Saudi ambassador to Jordan Nayef Al-Sudairi expanded his credentials to include a non-resident envoy to Palestine. A social media post by his embassy in Amman said "consul-general in Jerusalem" was now among Al-Sudairi's duties.

Israel, however, ruled out on Sunday any eventual physical mission in Jerusalem for the first Saudi envoy to the Palestinians, even as they cast his appointment as an endorsement of their goal of a state that would include part of the city as its capital.

Al-Sudairi is the kingdom's first ambassador to the Palestinian Authority but not its first to Jerusalem. Saudi Arabia had a consul general in Jerusalem during the mandate era. 

بتوجيه من المغفور له جلالة #الملك_عبدالعزيز بن عبدالرحمن عام ١٩٤٧م، رعى العم عبدالعزيز بن احمد السديري افتتاح القنصلية العامة #السعودية في #القدس(حي الشيخ جراح). pic.twitter.com/GZgeiGOxrv

— نايف بن بندر السديري (@naif63_2) August 13, 2023

Al Sudairi posted on X, formerly Twitter, a 1947 photo showing his late relative Abdel Azziz ben Ahmad al-Sudairi in Jerusalem, opening the kingdom's Consulate. 

Nevertheless, the Saudis have their own foreign agenda to pursue. 

Saudi demands

In exchange for establishing diplomatic ties with Israel, the Saudis reportedly made four specific demands, three directed towards the United States. They include a defence treaty with the United States, access to sophisticated American weaponry and American consent to a civil nuclear program, possibly with the right to enrich uranium.  

In addition, the Saudis want Israel to put forth concessions to the Palestinians. Specifically, to withhold measures that would jeopardise the two-state solution. These include an "indefinite commitment to refrain from annexing the occupied West Bank, establishing new settlements or legalising settlement outposts and expanding Area A", said the former deputy head of Israel's national security council, Professor Chuck Freilich. 

"If they can get Israel to make significant concessions to the Palestinians, then it's something they can show to their people and to the Muslim world", he added.

What would it mean for the Palestinians?

If the deal goes forward, it would mean Saudi Arabia formalises ties with Israel before the latter cease the occupation of Palestinian territories. 

The weight of such a development would equal Egypt's historic peace treaty with Israel in the 1970s. 

Palestinian political analyst Hani al-Masri pointed out that the Palestinian Authority must make it clear to the Saudis that normalising its ties with Israel before ending the occupation "will not be done under Palestinian cover". 

The multi-lateral deal in the works also requires the Saudis to end the war in Yemen, increase its aid to the Palestinians, and limit ties with China. 

In exchange, the Palestinians are expected to "moderate" their positions in future negotiations with Israel. 

The Iranian link

Meanwhile, there are serious doubts about whether Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu would be inclined to engage in such a deal given the opposition to Palestinians by his ruling coalition.

Some raise the possibility of a new coalition that would put Benny Gantz's national unity party and Netanyahu's Likud in a new government and see the removal of the far-right and possibly the ultra-religious parties from power. 

Israel certainly has much to gain if the Saudis agree to formal ties. Some would go as far as to declare an "end to the Arab-Israeli conflict".

In more practical terms, diplomatic relations with the Saudi kingdom could pave the way for Israel to establish ties with important Muslim-majority countries such as Pakistan and Indonesia. 

Israel's Strategic Affairs Minister, Ron Dermer, is set to meet with US officials in Washington to discuss the possibility of normalising relations with Saudi Arabia, the Iran nuclear deal, and the judiciary changes in Israel. 

On the latter, the Biden administration is seeking to limit Iran's uranium enrichment to 60 per cent. In return, the US would agree to release billions of dollars in Iranian assets. 

Currently, Iran is enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels, according to a recent report by The International Atomic Energy Agency or IAEA. The UN nuclear watchdog said, in its report, that the Islamic Republic had enriched uranium to 83.7% purity at the Fordo fuel enrichment plant south of the capital Tehran. Weapons-grade uranium is enriched to about 90%, according to experts.