Ilhan Omar favoured to win US Congress primary, but faces tough challenges

When Minnesotans go to the polls for the US Congressional primaries on Tuesday, voters in Ilhan Omar’s district will have the choice between her and a contender with some major endorsements.

It might seem surprising to see a world-famous politician with consistent progressive policies in a deep blue district face a challenger in a primary. However, Omar has long been a target of the Republican Party, and in some cases the Democratic establishment.  

Among the endorsers of Omar’s challenger, former Minneapolis city council member Don Samuels, are the mayor of Minneapolis and several other mayors of nearby suburbs, as well as the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Omar’s hometown newspaper. Omar, however, has the endorsements of most major labour unions, major national progressive leaders in senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. 

“I think she and Don Samuels will agree on the vast majority of issues. I think the contrast is style. Good or bad, she has been one of the more controversial members [of Congress],” J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told The New Arab. 

Indeed, much of the focus of the Star-Tribune’s editorial endorsement of Samuels over Omar was on the "Defund the Police" movement, whose name has sparked controversy over the implication that it would reduce public safety. The concept itself, reallocating resources for community support, was generally popular once people learned the details. The negative sentiment of the slogan, however, has stuck.

Unlike some of her progressive counterparts, Omar has not faced an onslaught of attack ads by AIPAC during this election cycle, possibly because she is not generally seen as vulnerable in her deep blue district that has largely stayed the same with redistricting after the 2020 census.

There are few polls available for this race, but one from June by Change Research has Omar leading with 60 percent, way ahead of Samuels at 21 percent. 

"I’m increasingly seeing an urban contingent, often more educated voters, going for these hard-left candidates," said Coleman.

"That would benefit Omar. In urban areas, we’re seeing more of an appetite for candidates like [Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez] AOC who want to take the fight to Republicans. In this district, Trump took less than 20 percent of the vote. They can nominate a pretty solid progressive."

Nevertheless, any competition means she has to fight for her seat, something she did in 2020 with another serious primary challenger, Antone Melton-Meaux. She was then challenged by a well-funded Republican in the general election, whom she also beat decisively. 

"The fact that she keeps getting well-funded and credible challengers shows some discontent in her district," Michael Minta, professor of political science at the University of Minnesota, told TNA. The heavy funding of Omar and her Democratic and Republican challengers has made Minnesota’s 5th district one of the most expensive races in the country. 

Minta said the Defund the Police movement has been a divisive issue among constituents, and he has heard complaints that her office is often unresponsive to constituents.

"Every time it seems she’s going to get in trouble, she ends up winning. It would be a big upset if she didn’t win,” he said. “The one thing you have to wonder is: will this continue to be a theme of having quality challengers in each primary oppose her? I don’t know."

Republican challenger Cicely Davis has nearly reached Omar’s fundraising level, Minta said, with both having raised just over $2 million.

"She’s getting a lot of money for a district that the Democrats will win by a lot," he said. "So, they’re going to keep the spotlight on Omar".