Fear and loathing in Jordan ahead of Iran retaliation on Israel

As Iran and its allies prepare to conduct military action against Israel and possibly US interests in the wake of the assassination of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week, the Jordanian public is boiling over, demanding their country cut ties to Israel and revise the Aqaba Peace Agreement.

Feeling itself particularly vulnerable, Jordan is striking a nuanced tone, vowing to defend itself in the event of violations of its sovereignty while suing for de-escalation.

On Sunday, Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi made a rare visit to Iran on Sunday in a bid to contain the escalation and prevent a region-wide war that will further damage Jordan's stability. 

"My visit to Iran is to consult on the serious escalation in the region and to engage in a frank and clear discussion...Jordan has always been proactive in defending the Palestinian cause [and] has condemned the Israeli occupation," Safadi said in a press conference alongside his Iranian counterpart in Tehran. He also condemned Haniyeh's assassination as a "heinous crime" but said his country wanted the escalation to end to spare "the entire region from the consequences of a regional war that would have a devastating impact on everyone".

But earlier, Safadi took a firmer tone aimed at a possible Iranian response that could undermine Jordan's sovereignty, saying he would not allow anyone to turn it into a battlefield.

“We must always be on alert at the borders, and we will not allow anyone to turn Jordan into a battlefield. We must protect our country, and in case of any escalation, our priority is to protect Jordan and Jordanians," he said during a press conference with the Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Affairs of Luxembourg, Xavier Bettel, last week.

'Not defending Israel'

In the last round of Iran-Israel escalation in April, Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles and drones bound for Israel, citing self-defence. But many accused Amman of rushing to the defence of Israel.

Jordanians then and now are divided on what their country should do.

“Jordan is in the eye of the storm...[Iranian] missiles will enter Jordanian airspace, and some will fall over the kingdom, which will defend its airspace not to protect Israel but to safeguard its citizens," said retired Major General Dr. Mamoun Abu Nuwar,  a strategic and military expert.

But in case of an all-out war breaking out, "there are challenges related to the regional divide and economic security if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthis close the Bab al-Mandab," he added.

"We are in the heart of the storm due to our geopolitical position. There will be chaos and instability in the region if a full-scale war breaks out with Israel, and Jordan will face a significant challenge in securing its borders, which extend over 1,500 square kilometres.”

Over the past week, the 31 July assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh has reignited protests in front of the Israeli embassy in the capital, Amman, despite Jordanian authorities' attempts to arrest pro-Palestine and Islamist activists.

The relationship between Jordan and Hamas witnessed tension since 1999 when Jordanian authorities arrested Khaled Meshaal and several leaders of the movement. They were then expelled to Doha and the Hamas office was closed. Jordan is also nervous about its own Islamist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, which is close to Hamas, and is worried about their growing popularity ahead of the September 10 elections.

'At the heart of the battle'

Yet thousands of Jordanians took to the streets on Wednesday and Thursday in significant numbers in the provinces and near the Israeli embassy, demanding that Jordan cancel the peace treaty and several trade agreements signed with Israel. 

"Jordan is at the heart of the battle geographically and politically. Jordanians are boiling and are demanding the cutting of ties with Israel and the halting of all forms of economic and trade cooperation with the occupation," said Former Deputy Prime Minister Mamdouh Al-Abadi. 

“We must return to compulsory military service in the army. The ruling Likud party and extremists in Israel declare that Jordan is part of Greater Israel. War is near, and peace is far; we must start preparing ourselves.”

“Jordanians of all backgrounds rose after Haniyeh’s assassination in defence of Palestinian resistance. Targeting Haniyeh in Tehran is a message to Arab regimes that the Zionist entity targets them. Therefore, supporting the resistance is supporting Jordan’s national security. Arab countries must expel American and French bases as they target those countries," Former MP Saleh Al-Armouti said.

Jordan suffers from a critical economic situation with rising unemployment, poverty, and sluggish economic growth, deepened by the Gaza war, which hit the tourism sector that was contributing 15% of the GDP in 2023.

Since October 7, tourism has declined according to the Central Bank of Jordan. During the first half of 2024, tourism revenues fell by 4.9% to $3.3 billion compared to the previous year, due to the impact of the war in Gaza.

Dr. Khaled Shneikat, President of the Jordanian Political Science Association and a professor of political science, expects further repercussions of Haniyeh’s assassination on the internal Jordanian scene.

“It will include the mobilization of people sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, as well as the fact that there is a large number of Palestinian refugees in Jordan...As for the political impact of Iran’s response to Haniyeh’s assassination in Jordan, the Arab world, including Jordanians, will witness polarization and support for Iran if it retaliates against the occupation as a leader of the resistance".

"Today, Jordan’s interest lies in stopping the war and finding a peaceful solution to the Palestinian issue," he added. The potential war between Iran and its allies on one side and Israel on the other could also have economic ramifications for a country like Jordan, which officially hosts two million Palestinian refugees, according to UNRWA figures.