Doubts cast on Libyan ceasefire deal

Ceasefire announcements proclaimed by Libya's rival parliaments after UN brokered peace talks.

2 min read

20 January, 2015

Rival parliaments and militias have torn Libya apart at the seams [AFP]

Doubts are being cast on the effectiveness of a UN-brokered ceasefire declared by rival Libyan governments, just days after it was announced.

The General National Congress, based in Tripoli, declared a ceasefire by its forces on Friday 16 January. It was followed, two days later, by a similar announcement from the internationally recognised House of Representatives, based in Tobruk. The statements came after two days of talks in Geneva, brokered by the UN.

The UN hopes the ceasefire will lead to an agreement between the rival administrations to create a national unity government.

The UN hopes the ceasefire will lead to an agreement between the rival administrations to create a national unity government and bring Libya back from the verge of civil war.

On Sunday, the UN mission in Libya issued a statement urging all parties involved in the conflict to guarantee a ceasefire by land, sea, and air, "in addition to stopping the movement of armed formations and vehicles". The statement also called for both sides to coordinate with the UN so that any suspected breaches of the ceasefire could be addressed without further violence.

The deal is not without its problems, however.

First, the annoucenments were specific to forces loyal to Tobruk and Tripoli. According to Tobruk, whose forces are led by former General Khalifa Haftar, the ceasefire would not include the city of Benghazi in east Libya, home to al-Qaeda linked groups including Ansar al-Sharia, which is a member of the umbrella group, the Shura Council of Benghazi Revolutionaries.

Analysts said the ceasefire pledge may also exclude groups in the west of Libya, such as the Zintan Brigades, which - although sympathetic to Haftar - do not necessarily follow his orders.

International bodies such as the UN also face problems trying to police and verify the ceasefire - the instability of Libya makes it difficult to guarantee the safety of any international observers sent there.

Furthermore, the UN's proposal to use committees from each side to handle the implementation of the ceasefire will be difficult to implement because of high levels of tension between the warring parties. Military commanders are not fully subordinate to political leaders, which will also hinder the implementation of the ceasefire [Ar], say analysts.

This is an edited translation from our Arabic edition.