Blinken heads to Saudi Arabia amid strained ties, Israel normalisation in mind

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday on a mission to steady Washington's relationship with Riyadh after years of deepening disagreements on issues ranging from Iran and regional security to oil prices.

Blinken is expected to meet with top Saudi officials and possibly the kingdom's de-facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, also known as MbS, during his time in Riyadh, the capital, and the coastal city of Jeddah, in what will be Washington's second recent high-level visit. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan travelled to Saudi Arabia on 7 May.

The top US diplomat's 6-8 June visit to the world's largest oil exporter comes days after Riyadh pledged to cut oil production further, a move likely to add tension to a US-Saudi relationship already strained by the kingdom's human rights record and disputes over the US's Iran policy.

The aims of the trip include regaining sway with Riyadh over oil prices, fending off Chinese and Russian influence in the region, and nurturing hopes for an eventual Saudi-Israeli normalisation.

Speaking at the pro-Israel lobby group the American Israel Public Affairs Committee on Monday, Blinken said Washington had "a real national security interest" in advocating for the normalisation of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, but cautioned that it will not happen quickly.

Discouraging a closer Saudi-Chinese relationship is probably the most crucial element of Blinken's visit, said Richard Goldberg, senior adviser at Washington-based think-tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).

"[Blinken should explain] why Chinese interests do not align with Saudi Arabia, and why closer relations in a strategic way inhibit closer relations with Washington," Goldberg said.

US-Saudi ties were off to a rocky start in 2019 when President Joe Biden during his campaign said he would treat Riyadh like "the pariah that they are" if he was elected, and soon after taking office in 2021, released a U.S. intelligence assessment that Crown Prince Mohammed approved the operation to capture or kill journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.

A visit by Biden in July 2022 to the kingdom did little to ease tensions, and increasingly, Riyadh has looked to reassert its regional clout, while growing less interested in being aligned with US priorities in the region.

The most recent example was when MbS warmly embraced Syrian President Bashar al-Assad at an Arab League summit in May, which saw Arab states readmit Syria after a decade of suspension, a move Washington said it neither supported nor encouraged.

The kingdom has been pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into transforming and opening its economy to reduce dependence on crude oil. The reforms have been accompanied by a raft of arrests of critics of MbS, as well as of businessmen, clerics and rights activists.

US officials briefing reporters on the trip last week said there was an "ongoing conversation regarding the promotion of human rights and fundamental freedoms" with Saudi Arabia but they declined to say if Blinken would seek any guarantees from the Saudis on the issue.