Azmi Bishara: Second Trump administration likely worse for Palestine, Arab region

Dr. Azmi Bishara, the director of the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, has predicted that U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House could bring even more damaging policies than those seen during his first term, particularly concerning the Arab region and the Palestinian cause.

Bishara suggested that Trump might approve Israel’s annexation of West Bank settlements if such a move were to occur. He also anticipated that Trump would build on his infamous “Deal of the Century” with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, further dismantling what remains of the Palestinian cause.

Bishara urged Arab leaders to prepare for the pressures Trump is expected to exert during his second term. He forecasted that Trump would demand four key actions from Arab, especially Gulf, leaders: purchasing more weapons, reducing oil prices, arming themselves to reduce U.S. defense commitments against Iran, and normalizing relations with Israel without addressing the rights of the Palestinian people.

What to expect from Trump 2.0

In an interview on Al-Araby TV on Sunday, Bishara analyzed Trump’s comeback, its causes, and its implications for the United States, the world, and the Arab region. He argued that Trump’s presidency, which begins on 20 January, is likely to intensify challenges for Palestine.

Bishara pointed to Trump’s first term as a game-changer, where he sought to eliminate the notion of a Palestinian cause altogether, claiming it was unnecessary for achieving peace with Israel. This shift, Bishara noted, has not been reversed by President Joe Biden, who retained key elements of Trump’s policies, such as recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, defunding UNRWA, closing the PLO office in Washington, and endorsing Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights.

Bishara highlighted the possibility that Trump might back further Israeli annexations in the West Bank, underscoring the lack of resistance from Arab officials during past moves, such as the annexation of Jerusalem in late 2017. He questioned whether Trump might take his “Deal of the Century” even further, especially amidst ongoing Israeli violence in the West Bank and Gaza.

Bishara stressed that Arab leaders, particularly those Trump would approach for normalization with Israel, must be prepared to respond decisively. He criticized their lack of action during the recent Gaza war, urging them to adopt a stronger stance if Trump pushes for normalization.

Bishara called for a unified Arab front to assert their national interests, including the Palestinian cause. He warned that Egypt and Jordan could be particularly vulnerable if Trump and Israel intensify efforts to displace Palestinians.

Bishara explained that Trump as commander in chief wields significant authority in U.S. foreign policy, bolstered by a team of loyalists who view his presidency as having a strong mandate despite his lack of bipartisan appeal. Trump’s “America First” policy, prioritizing transactional deals over international commitments, is likely to grow even more aggressive, given the more ideologically aligned advisors surrounding him this time.

Bishara noted that during his first term, Trump implemented policies previously deemed unimaginable, such as recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, cutting funding to UNRWA, and closing the PLO office in Washington. In his second term, Trump could pursue even harsher agendas, using threats such as raising tariffs on Chinese and European goods as bargaining tools.

Why Trump won

Bishara attributed Trump’s victory to factors similar to those in 2016, such as mobilizing a predominantly white conservative base fearful of cultural and demographic changes. He argued that economic performance was not the deciding factor, as Biden’s administration outperformed Trump’s in terms of growth and employment. Instead, Trump’s success was rooted in exploiting cultural fears, including anti-immigration rhetoric and opposition to progressive gender and social issues.

Bishara dismissed the notion that Arab and Muslim voters significantly influenced Trump’s victory, attributing their limited impact to a lack of organization and unified positions on collective issues. He advised Arabs and Muslims to focus on long-term influence within the Democratic Party, where younger members increasingly oppose Israel’s occupation.

Bishara described Trump’s base as a coalition of white conservatives nostalgic for Protestant values and fearful of cultural changes. While Trump himself is not a traditional conservative, Bishara portrayed him as an opportunist aligned with wealthy, self-serving elites. This alliance, he argued, has fueled Trump’s rise and empowered his policies.

Looking ahead, Bishara warned that Trump’s second term could be particularly dangerous, as he is now stronger and better positioned to enact radical reforms in culture, education, and taxation. He cautioned that such moves would likely provoke significant opposition, with anti-Trump forces left with no recourse but to turn to public protests and civil resistance.

Bishara concluded that this could lead to genuine social conflict, possibly erupting after Trump’s first year in office.