Azmi Bishara: Biden thought Israel would not let him down over Gaza ceasefire deal, but it did

Azmi Bishara, the general director of the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, commenting on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continued evasion of the ceasefire plan proposed by US President Joe Biden in early June, says that Biden had believed Israel wouldn't disappoint him, but it did.

Bishara thinks Biden could exert more pressure on Israel but chooses not to, while also saying he doesn't expect any substantial changes from the Rome talks tomorrow (between officials from Qatar, the US, Egypt, and Israel regarding a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Palestinian and Israeli prisoners).

Bishara reiterated his belief that there is no alternative to Palestinian unity under the Palestinian Liberation Organisation to confront the challenges the Palestinian cause is currently facing and will face in the future. He also dismissed the idea that the Beijing Declaration would lead to genuine Palestinian unity.

Concerning the US presidential elections, Bishara noted that Netanyahu prefers the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, because he recognises that the Democratic Party has indeed changed. He emphasised that there is a difference between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Trump on the Palestinian issue, despite both being "bitter choices." On the northern front, regarding tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, Bishara acknowledged the possibility of escalation but ruled out a full-scale war, as both parties seem to have reached an understanding to respond to escalations with proportional measures.

Regarding the Rome talks, Bishara speculated that new details might be discussed, but they are unlikely to alter Netanyahu's established approach of procrastination and stalling until he is forced to agree to a short-term ceasefire, retain control over the Rafah crossing, maintain a veto over the release of 100 Palestinian prisoners, and increase the number of Israeli hostages released each week from three to five. These are the four conditions Netanyahu set on 7 July, five weeks after Biden presented what he called an Israeli plan.

Bishara pointed out that Netanyahu has never agreed to Biden's declaration, possibly explaining the cold reception Netanyahu received from Biden during his recent visit to the White House, with Biden insisting on a ceasefire (and Harris speaking more explicitly about ending the war). Bishara emphasised that Biden could pressure Netanyahu more but does not want to be remembered as the one who caused a rift in US-Israel relations, noting that Biden's administration members are even more reluctant on this issue.

In the Rome talks, Bishara anticipates discussions will not go beyond minor adjustments, like reducing the number of Palestinian prisoners Netanyahu vetoes releasing, which are insufficient from the resistance's perspective. Bishara reminded us that since Biden's announcement, Israelis and some Arab officials have tried to shift the focus to the Palestinians, pressuring them even though they agreed to the plan. Netanyahu, on the other hand, never accepted it, aiming to continue the war to inflict maximum damage on Gaza and "change the situation in Gaza fundamentally”, though the Israeli Prime Minister lacks a real plan involving Arab partners for the post-war period.

Bishara highlighted Netanyahu's sense of impunity, believing that international courts, global pressure, and protests have been exhausted, leaving him free-handed as Arab countries like Egypt have not seriously pressured Netanyahu with the choice between peace and its absence, which would have changed the situation dramatically.

According to Bishara, Netanyahu perceives real pressure on Hamas from the Palestinian street in Gaza, hence targeting Palestinian society deliberately. Bishara criticised Netanyahu's speech in Congress, which he described as disgraceful, for falsely claiming only one civilian death in Rafah, exemplifying Netanyahu's lies and sense of invincibility, allowing him to continue his war. Bishara also noted Netanyahu's reliance on the betrayal of some Arab regimes towards the Palestinians, evident in his comments to Congress about them being his Arab allies.

Regarding the speech Netanyahu delivered in the US Congress, Bishara noted that the absence of 112 Democratic representatives opposing Netanyahu amplified his perceived "success," which Bishara called a "gathering of folly and absurdity," likening it to a Third World parliament. Bishara highlighted the colonial-religious tone of Netanyahu's speech, as well as his arrogance and interference in US affairs by labeling Israel's critics as Iran's agents and anti-Semites.

He noted a significant shift within the American Democratic Party, making Netanyahu favor Trump's victory over Kamala Harris on 5 November. Bishara pointed out that a Democrat-aligned television station like CNN criticised Netanyahu's speech, exposing its falsehoods. According to Bishara, the current Israeli government hopes a Trump victory would support the annexation of West Bank settlements and maintain control over access roads to these settlements.

Commenting on the Beijing Declaration for Palestinian reconciliation, Bishara dismissed the notion that it could lead to genuine Palestinian unity, despite its comprehensive call for rebuilding the Palestinian Liberation Organisation, unified leadership, and a national unity government. He explained that the Palestinian leadership agreed to it primarily to avoid angering China and to signal to the US that revitalising the Palestinian leadership, as desired by Washington, entails reconciliation with Hamas and others.

However, Bishara sees the declaration as just a statement without leading to real unity, while actual unity is urgently needed with a national unity government accepted by both the resistance and the PA, under the political reference of the Palestinian Liberation Organization, capable of managing Gaza in a way that leaves no justification for the continued Israeli occupation of Gaza. He stressed that the only way to achieve this is by rebuilding the Palestinian Liberation Organisation, a goal of the Palestinian National Conference he advocates.

In response to a question about what remains of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, Bishara listed the lost functions, essentially everything, leaving the Authority with only some municipal roles. He stated that Israel now directly handles security functions, relying on the Authority only for gathering information about people. He noted that every citizen now deals directly with the occupation to find work, bypassing the Authority, and that the expansion of settlements and settlers' assaults without the Authority defending the people undermines the Authority's very concept and raison d'être.

Bishara added that one of the signs of the Authority's demise is Israel's changing rules regarding Palestinian prisoners, who are subjected to some of the worst prison conditions worldwide, exacerbated by the Authority's poor conduct and rhetoric since 7 October, which undermines its foundations. In contrast, if the Palestinian Liberation Organisation were genuinely present, the situation would be entirely different.

Addressing the US presidential race, Bishara explained that impressions in politics sometimes carry the weight of facts. He suggested that the infamous debate between Biden and Trump left an impression that Biden might not be capable of continuing the race, even though Biden's mental acuity surpasses Trump's, given Trump's absolute ignorance, populism, and lack of coherent ideas. However, the performative aspect of politics makes it less about what you say and more about how you present it, with Bishara concluding that "the fool and ignorant one triumphs over the wiser one" in these circumstances.

He described the Republican convention as a "circus," contrasting it with the expected different atmosphere at the Democratic convention in Chicago next month. Bishara acknowledged Harris's actual chance of winning, although if the Democratic primary had been a year earlier, she might not have been the party's candidate. However, the short time left before the election has quickly garnered her party support. He noted her strengths, such as support from young women and people of color, but pointed out her challenge with white working-class voters, who are crucial in the five swing states and here she may need Biden to help.

Bishara argued that there is a real difference between Harris and Trump on Middle East issues, particularly the Palestinian issue, although both are difficult choices. He quickly recalled the damage Trump caused to the Palestinian cause during his presidency, with the so-called "Deal of the Century" or plan to liquidate the Palestinian issue, and recognising Jerusalem as Israel's capital. Bishara emphasised that the Arab world has a problem in always looking to external actors because it lacks genuine nation building projects. He noted that America will not support a party that is not supportive of itself, pointing out that some Arab countries accept American dictates without attempting to be an ally rather than a subordinate.

Given the internal Palestinian situation and the difference between Trump and Harris, especially considering Trump's actions during his term, Bishara concluded that unifying the Palestinian people and demonstrating that normalisation without resolving the Palestinian issue is impossible is crucial to thwarting plans that marginalize Palestine.